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[转贴] 阿笔谈股系列5- 浅谈TekSeng- 阅读报纸的感想

ahbi
Publish date: Fri, 19 Aug 2016, 01:16 PM

最近阿笔阅读星报,文章标题:TekSeng Counts On Solar Cell Business, 报导于18/7/2016 (星期一),文章有提到该公司太阳能的业务(solar cell)的订单可以忙到今年年尾,(TekSeng Holding Solar Cell business to generate about 70% of the company revenue this year given that the order book has been fill till the end of this year)。http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/18/tek-seng-counts-on-solar-cell-business/

“订单可以忙到今年年尾”,这句话引起了阿笔的注意。

TekSeng有两个主要业务:PVC业务和太阳能的业务(solar cell)。

从过去几年的年报,可以发现TekSeng的PVC业务缺乏成长空间,net income/year 保持在RM12-16M之间。反之,太阳能的业务(solar cell),从亏转盈,有成长的空间。

 

TekSengPVC业务价值多少?

TekSeng的PVC业务缺乏成长空间,net income/year 保持在RM12-16M之间, 所以P/E 5倍应该合理(RM60-80M).

 

目前,TekSeng股价RM1.33, 市值RM442.32M, 又有TekSeng-WA股价RM1.08, 市值RM63.03M,所以TekSeng总市值RM442.32M+RM63.03M= RM505.35M。

如果你每股RM1.33 买入, 代表你认同太阳能的业务(solar cell)价值RM425-445M (RM505.35-60).

Tekseng拥有50.69%太阳能的业务(solar cell)的股份。

 

TekSeng的太阳能的业务(solar cell)价值多少?         

太阳能业务

收入

净盈利

净利率 (Net profit margin)

备注

季报(31/3/2016)

88.97M

20.32M

23%

Gain on foreign exchange (额外外汇收益)

季报(30/6/2016)

100.59M

13.27M

13%

没有额外外汇收益

 

未来会有更多生产线投入运做

-该公司管理层已说太阳能业务的订单可以忙到今年年尾和

-新增加的3条生产线会在九月全面运作,和

-2016年底,会再增加2条生产线

-从目前270MV生产力增加到 740MV(4条生产线增加到9条生产线)

 

所以阿笔大胆假设,原有的270MV生产线可以在2017年全面生产,所以价值RM260M[假设 P/E 10, 净盈利13.27Mx 4 quarter ,  Tekseng拥有50.69%太阳能的业务(solar cell)]

 

所以, 基本上你是投资RM185M(RM445-260),希望太阳业务有好的成长潜能(4条生产线增加到9条生产线)。可能价值RM530M[假设新增加的5条生产线在2017年全面生产, P/E 10, 净盈利26.54Mx 4 quarter ,  Tekseng拥有50.69%太阳能的业务(solar cell)]。阿笔觉得新增加的5条生产线在2017年全面生产可能性不高,但达到50%生产力,应该不难。

 

下一篇阿笔谈股系列将和大家讨论Penta

注::阿笔个人持有该公司股份,但并非该公司董事,顾问或员工。以上投资分析,纯属阿笔个人意见和观点。任何人因看此文章而造成任何投资损失,阿笔恕不负责。

 

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2 people like this. Showing 4 of 4 comments

erkongseng

谢谢分享, 赞

2016-08-19 19:25

xuewen

ahbi,

can not understand your calculation !!

no head , no tail , don't know what you are talking about

2016-08-20 15:11

ahbi

Q3 2016 季报, 太阳能的业务数据不理想. 太阳能产量有增加,但太阳能solar cell价钱一直下降, 从七月USD $1.50 下降到现在 USD $1.10!!! http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/11/28/tek-seng-expects-net-profit-and-revenue-to-improve/ 至于,太阳能solar cell价钱会上升吗?可以阅读阿笔对Dufu的看法。 过去Semiconductor价钱都是越来越便宜。 http://www.jcmit.com/mem2015.htm

2016-12-02 12:06

ahbi

阿笔对Tekseng solar cell未来的看法

最近,阿笔阅读美国上市公司(从事solar cell)年报。这间公司市值大约RM15,000M( 71倍的Tekseng 市值RM205M) 该年报有提到solar cell市场是非常竞争激烈!

We face intense competition for sales of solar modules, which has resulted in and may continue to result in reduced margins and loss of market share. [可能继续导致利润率下降和市场份额的损失。]


Certain competitors may have direct or indirect access to sovereign capital, which could enable such competitors to operate at minimal or negative operating margins for sustained periods of time. [某些竞争者可以直接或间接获得sovereign capital,这可以使这些竞争者在最小或负的运营利润长期持续运营]


Among PV module and cell manufacturers, the principal methods of competition include sales price per watt, conversion efficiency, energy yield, reliability, warranty terms, and customer payment terms. [竞争包括每瓦销售价格,转换效率,能量产出,可靠性,保修条款和客户付款条件。]


If competitors reduce module pricing to levels near or below their manufacturing costs, or are able to operate at minimal or negative operating margins for sustained periods of time, our results of operations could be adversely affected. [如果竞争对手将定价降低到接近或低于其制造成本的水平,或者能够在持续时间内以最小或负运行利润运行,我们的运营结果可能受到不利影响。]


At December 31, 2015, the global PV industry consisted of more than 150manufacturers of solar modules and cells. In the aggregate, these manufacturers have, relative to global demand, significant installed production capacity and the ability for additional capacity expansion. We believe the solar industry may from time to time experience periods of structural imbalance between supply and demand (i.e., where production capacity exceeds global demand), and that such periods will put pressure on pricing, which could adversely affect our results of operations.[ 生产能力超过全球需求]

2016-12-09 09:48

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