Investment Highlights

• We maintain our forecasts, FV of RM2.76 and BUY call, following an analyst briefing yesterday. Our FV is based on 12x FY18F FD EPS, in line with our 1-year forward target PE of 10-12x for small-cap construction stocks.

• YTD, Kimlun’s construction division has bagged about RM0.9bil new jobs, boosting its balance order book to approximately RM2bil (including the RM50mil Tanjung Langsat–Cahaya Masai Toll connecting road contract awarded by Mah Sing announced yesterday). Kimlun believes it should end FY17F with total job wins of about RM1bil, vs. RM1.4bil it secured in FY16.

• For FY18, Kimlun is mixed on the prospects of construction job wins. While it is confident of securing about RM500mil worth of government-funded affordable housing projects (such as PR1MA and Selangorku), it is cautious on the private property sector (given the still soft property market) and the public infrastructure sector (given the unpredictability of the actual timing of the rollout of key infrastructure projects including the East Coast Rail Link and KL-Singapore High-Speed Rail).

• We have raised our assumption for construction job wins in FY17F to RM1bil (from RM900mil), which is offset by higher interest expenses arising from higher capex of RM60mil and RM30mil in FY17-18F as guided (vs. our assumption of RM15mil annually), largely to facilitate the execution of the RM1.46bil Pan Borneo Sarawak contract. For FY18-19F, we maintain our assumption for construction job wins at RM700mil annually.

• Meanwhile, its manufacturing order backlog remains elevated at RM320mil (vs. RM260mil six months ago), underpinned largely by MRT2 orders comprising segmental box girders, tunnel lining segments and other pre-cast concrete products (with a total value of RM280mil), with the balance coming from recurring orders from various infrastructure projects in Singapore.

• We project Kimlun's FD EPS to contract by 20.8% in FY17F from a high base a year ago (largely due to lumpy variation order claims recognised during the year). Its earnings growth momentum should resume in FY18F (+27.7%).

• We continue to like Kimlun as it is a good proxy to the booming local construction sector given its involvement in the MRT2 (supply of precast concrete segments), Pan Borneo Highway and the construction of affordable housing. Kimlun's earnings profile has improved tremendously as it no longer relies solely on building jobs, but has expanded to infrastructure (Pan Borneo Highway). Similarly, its manufacturing unit has widened its product offering with the latest being rail sleepers and parapet walls.

Source: AmInvest Research - 29 Sept 2017