- Bloomberg reported that palm oil inventory at the major ports in China amounted to 400,000 tonnes in recent weeks compared with 1.2mil tonnes at the same time last year and 1.3mil tonnes in 2013.

- Due to the low level of inventory, palm oil shipments to China may exceed 1.3mil tonnes in 2Q2015. The inventory is expected to decline as consumption increases during summer.

- Oil World said that China’s soybean imports are envisaged to rise 52% QoQ to 21.4mil tonnes in May to July 2015. Demand for soybean is expected to be driven by the crushing industry and shrinking stockpiles. Oil World also said that China may switch to soybeans from the US if shipments from South America are delayed.

- According to news reports, RSPO (Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil) has barred Golden Agri Resources from acquiring or developing new areas pending the resolution of a complaint against the group.

- Forest Peoples Programme lodged a complaint last year after Golden Agri filed to expand its plantings in spite of evidence that one of its subsidiaries had taken community land without a HCV (high conservation value) assessment and consent from the natives. RSPO has given Golden Agri until 20 May 2015 to respond.

- Bloomberg reported that Brazilian soybean farmers may be putting their expansion plans on hold next year as prices have plunged and costs such as fertiliser and pesticides have increased.

- Planting investments are also hampered by rising borrowing costs. According to a crop forecaster, bank loans to Brazilian farmers may decline by about 20% this year.

- Finally, two independent cargo surveyors said that Malaysia’s palm oil shipments climbed by 56.1% and 54.5% respectively in the first 15 days of May compared with the same period in April.

- Exports of Malaysian palm oil to China surged by 132.3% while India’s palm oil imports jumped by 191.6%. These more than compensated for a 40.1% fall in US’ palm oil imports from Malaysia.

Source: AmeSecurities Research - 18 May 2015