- Bloomberg reported that Indonesia’s biodiesel demand may rise to 1.8mil kilolitres to 2.0mil kilolitres (635,664 tonnes to 706,293 tonnes) in 2015F (2014: 1.7mil kilolitres). Pertamina has started the biodiesel tender process and will be seeking about 200,000 kilolitres (70,629 tonnes) of biodiesel supply.

- The Palm Oil Fund will be giving a subsidy of Rph600-700/litre for biodiesel. Proceeds from the export levy, which will be used to finance the Palm Oil Fund, are expected to be Rph3.5-4.5trillion (US$262mil to US$337mil).

- National Oilseed Processors Association said that soybean crushing in the US has increased from 118.7mil bushels last year to 142.5mil bushels in June 2015. Inventories of soybean oil in the US were 1.57bil pounds as at end-June 2015 compared with 1.85bil pounds last year.

- Oil World estimates China’s soybean imports at 75.8mil tonnes in 2014/2015F versus 70.4mil tonnes in 2013/2014. China’s soybean imports may reach 9.2mil to 9.5mil tonnes in July 2015, which would be the highest level ever.

- China’s soybean inventory is forecast to rise by 3mil tonnes YoY in July 2015. Oil World may need to reduce its estimate of soybean inventory in South America due to China’s robust demand.

- Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has reinstated force majeure on the grain terminals in Illinois River. CME said that corn and soybean shipping stations are unable to load due to flooding and high water levels.

- Bloomberg quoted the Army Corps as saying that they need one to two weeks of good weather to get the water flushed out of the terminals. CME lifted the force majeure on 9 July 2015.

- Bloomberg also reported that pesticide sales in Brazil may be slowing in 2015F due to less soybean plantings, weaker Brazilian Real and high inventory levels. The agrochemicals industry expects the Brazil government to reduce bureaucracy processes for the approval of new pesticides this year. Pesticide sales are estimated at US$12.2bil in Brazil in 2015F.

- Finally, independent cargo surveyors said that Malaysia’s palm oil shipments fell by 15% in the first 15 days of July compared with the same period in June. The fall in palm oil exports was mainly due to a 35.6% decline in demand from India.

- Palm oil exports to China expanded by 6% in the first 15 days of July compared with the same period in June while the US bought 154.3% more palm oil.

Source: AmeSecurities Research - 20 Jul 2015