• Exports tumbled 2.0% yoy; imports fell by 2.8% in February
• Exports and imports also declined on monthly basis
• Trade surplus narrowed to RM9.0bn
• Negative export growth was triggered by agriculture and mining sector
• China exports at the highest in 3 years
• Trade protectionism is a risk to Malaysia through its value chain

Malaysia’s export tumbled 2.0% yoy to RM70.34bn in February after a 17.9% surge a month earlier. It was the first contraction in exports since October 2016 as trade activities slowed during the Chinese New Year festival. It was also the lowest exports value in 13 months (Jan17: RM70.27bn). The decrease was mainly prompted by agriculture and mining sector, specifically a decline in palm oil goods, natural rubber and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Likewise, import dropped 2.8% yoy to RM61.3bn, the weakest pace since October 2016, and down from an 11.6% growth in January. As a result, trade surplus narrowed to RM9.0bn and making it the 244th consecutive month of trade surplus since November 1997.

On monthly basis, export and imports contracted 15.1% (Jan: 4.4%) and 16.2% (Jan: 1.5%) respectively. On seasonally adjusted terms, exports and imports fell by 8.9% and 5.3%, correspondingly.

Total trade in February 2018 decreased by -2.4% yoy to RM131.7bn as compared to RM134.9bn in the corresponding period of last year. For the first two months of 2018 total trade amounted to RM287.6bn, grew by 6.3% yoy. Exports increased by 7.8% to RM153.2bn while imports rose by 4.6% to RM134.5bn. Trade surplus surged by 38.7% to RM18.7bn compared to the corresponding period of 2017.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 6 Apr 2018