• The KLCI declined to 1,793.15, a fall of 17.49 points versus the prior week, again due mainly to trade war concerns.

• The month of September saw a small net foreign inflow of RM66.3m compared to -RM97.4m in August.

• For 3Q18, net foreign outflow was at less damaging RM1.7bn, versus a massive -RM9.2bn in 2Q18. Providing support was local institutions’ net buy of RM1.5bn in 3Q18.

• We expect foreign buying interest to continue, driven by the surge in crude oil price and a relatively stable ringgit.

A better 3Q18 for equities

The market was softter last week, as focus remained on the US$200bn tariff on Chinese goods which took effect on Sept 24. The key highlight for the week is the continuation of net buying of RM212.3m by foreign investors in week 39. Notably, the past 2 weeks combined net inflow was RM727m. Foreign investors net selling appears to have tapered off, in our opinion – narrowing down from -RM5.6bn at its peak in May 2018 to net buy of RM66.3m in September.

On a quarter basis, both the KLCI and the Hijrah Shariah index posted gains of 6.0% and 4.5% respectively in 3Q18 versus 2Q18. The rebound was led by banks, Pet Chem and telcos for the KLCI. The Hijrah Shariah indeks meanwhile, was led mainly by telcos, Petronas and oil related stocks.

Week 40 ahead – in for the final innings

The US decision to hike its interest rate to 25 bps could potentially result in further outflow from emerging markets, but we view Malaysia’s economic fundamentals, aided by higher crude oil price and stable ringgit may stem any major foreign selling. Another rate hike of 25 bps appears set to happen in Dec 2018.

We expect both the US-China trade war and USDMYR to remain in focus this week.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 1 Oct 2018