• Exports increased 1.7% yoy in July

• Imports declined 5.9% yoy

• Trade surplus surged by 75.6% to RM14.3bn

• E&E-led manufacturing exports higher

• Broad-based decline in imports

• US-China trade war weighing down on global export

• Cautious on trade trajectory as trade conflict intensifies abruptly

Malaysia’s exports picked up in July by 1.7% yoy to RM88.0bn and was the highest export value ever recorded for the month of July. Re-exports was valued at RM17.9bn registering a decrease of 3.9% yoy and accounted for 20.3 % of total exports. However, domestic exports increased 3.3% or RM2.2bn to RM70.1bn. Imports amounted to RM73.7bn, a contraction of 5.9% yoy. As imports fell, trade surplus surged by 75.6% to RM14.3bn. It also registered an increase of 35.8 % or RM3.8bn as compared to the previous month.

On a mom basis, exports grew 15.5% or RM11.8bn from RM76.1bn whilst imports increased 12.3% or RM8.1bn from RM65.6bn. On seasonally adjusted terms, exports and imports also increased 10.9% and 7.9% respectively.

Total trade which was valued at RM161.7bn decreased RM3.2bn or 1.9% yoy. However, it increased RM19.9bn or 14.0% mom.

For the first 7 months of 2019, total trade stood at RM1.1tn, declining by 1.4% yoy. Exports amounted to RM569.5bn, slipped marginally by 0.4% while imports ware RM487.8bn, contracting by 2.6%. Trade surplus increased by 15.9% to RM81.6bn.

Meanwhile, based on the final data released, exports for the year of 2018 has breached RM1 trillion mark for the first time with a value of RM1.004tn, increased by 7.3% compared to 2017. Imports grew by 5.2% to RM879.8bn while total trade amounted to RM1.883tn, higher by 6.3%. Trade surplus accelerated by 25.7% to RM123.8bn.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 5 Sept 2019