Bimb Research Highlights

Malaysia Economy - 3Q21 GDP dragged down by resurgence of COVID-19 cases

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Publish date: Fri, 12 Nov 2021, 04:42 PM
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Bimb Research Highlights
  • Value of construction work contracted 21.0% in 3Q21
  • Volume index of distributive trade contracted 11.3% in 3Q21
  • Revenue for services sector dipped in 3Q21
  • GDP in 3Q21 hindered by extended lockdown but will return to positive growth in 4Q21

Value of construction work contracted 21.0% in 3Q21

The value of construction work done in 3Q21 contracted by 21.0% yoy (2Q21: +42.6%; 1Q21: -10.5%) amounting to RM24.8bn (2Q21: RM28.2bn; 1Q21: RM31.4bn). Compared to 2Q21, the value of construction work done contracted by 12.2% qoq (2Q21: -10.1%; 1Q21: -1.1%).

The three sub-sector, namely civil engineering sub-sector contracted by 29.7% (2Q21: +59.5%; 1Q21: -22.3%), residential buildings sub-sector (3Q21: -24.9%; 2Q21: +18.0%; 1Q21: -4.2%), and non-residential buildings sub-sector (3Q21: -10.4%; 2Q21: +37.0%; 1Q21: -5.3%). However, the special trades activities sub-sector rose at 21.0% (2Q21: +75.0%; 1Q21: +38.0%) in 3Q21.

The civil engineering sub-sector remained dominant in the value of construction work done for 24 consecutive quarters since the fourth quarter of 2015 with a 40.7% share. This followed by non-residential buildings (27.2%), residential buildings (23.3%) and special trades activities (8.8%).

The private sector continued to impel the construction activity in 3Q21 with a 55.2% share of value of construction work done (RM13.7bn) as compared to the public sector with a 44.8% share of value of construction work done (RM11.1bn). The value of construction work done in residential and non-residential buildings sub-sector remained significant in the project owned by the private sector which contributed 39.8% and 36.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, the project owned by the public sector was underpinned by the civil engineering sub-sector with a 74.0% share.

In 3Q21, Selangor recorded the highest value of construction work done with RM5.5bn or 19.4% share. This was followed by the Wilayah Persekutuan and Sarawak respectively by 16.7% and 12.8%

Volume index of distributive trade contracted in 3Q21

In 3Q21, volume index of wholesale & retail trade contracted by 3.7% qoq (2Q21: -7.8%; 1Q21: -1.4%; 4Q20: +1.3%). As for year-on-year comparison, volume index plunged by 11.3%, a reversal of 21.9% rise in the second quarter of 2021 (1Q21: +1.4%).

Volume index of Wholesale Trade declined 0.9% qoq (2Q21: -2.9%; 1Q21: -2.5%; 4Q20: +3.3%). The growth was dragged down by wholesale on a fee or contract basis and other specialised wholesale which registered -9.6% and -5.2% respectively. For year-on-year growth, volume index of wholesale trade slipped by 3.1% (2Q21: +21.1%; 1Q21: +0.7%; 4Q20: -0.5%). For 3Q21, Retail Trade fell by 1.6% as against the previous quarter (2Q21: - 6.4%; 1Q21: 0.0%; 4Q20: +1.4%). The sub-components retail trade which retail sale of other goods in specialised stores fell 5.1%. For year-on-year comparison, volume index fell 6.7% in the third quarter of 2021 (2Q21: +21.6%; 1Q21: +0.9%; 4Q20: -2.9%). Motor vehicles posted a negative growth of 32.2% qoq in 3Q21 (2Q21: -32.4%; 1Q21: -2.5%; 4Q20: -6.1%). This fall was attributed to sale, maintenance & repair of motorcycles & related parts & accessories which decreased -61.8% followed by sales of motor vehicles parts & accessories with -29.6%. For performance of this sub-sector as against the same quarter of the previous year, it went down 58.1% (2Q21: +28.2%; 1Q21: +6.6%; 4Q20: +2.7%).

Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted volume index of Wholesale & Retail Trade dropped by 7.5% against the 2Q21. This fall was attributable to the contraction in motor vehicles with -38.2%, retail trade sub-sector by -6.2%, and wholesale trade sub-sector by 4.8% as compared to the previous quarter.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 12 Nov 2021

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