I previously blogged about PBBANK here and accumulated more as price fell. My last accumulation was RM4.
So, I thought I provide this update for 2 reasons.
- There's subsequent discussions on how high PBBANK will hit - an i3member shares the belief that PBBANK will hit RM4.50 in September and it piqued my curiosity on the odds of this happening. Everything is possible.
- There's still interest to accumulate PBBANK by others even though I have my fill already. So, this update may benefit those who haven't accumulated enough.
So, I think it's worthwhile to look at both Weekly and Daily Charts. (the previous monthly chart still haven't changed that much).
Weekly Chart
- Note the downtrend line resistance in purple - it's slightly lower than RM4.50.
- Note the still sizeable gap in the triangle - and they still haven't meet post 2025. So, odds are price is more likely to still "ding-dong" inside the triangle consolidation say 55% chance.
- One more thing - there's a tendency that the top purple line can act as a magnet to attract prices this year.
Daily Chart
- Besides the downtrend line resistance, 2 more observations.
- First, the importance of 4.29 line. Second the 2 opening gaps on 9 Jul and 18 Jul.
- I am also expecting 9 sen dividend in September as my base case. (67% odds). I'm expecting price to fall after ex-div in mid September (the only question is how much after falling).
Key Summary Takeaways
- I feel majority odds, that up to September ex-div, price will stay inside the large gap triangle bounded by say a few sen below 4.50 at the top, and perhaps 4.06 at the bottom. My base case is more price "ding-dong" till then.
- If you are looking to still accumulate PBBANK, then, majority chance no need to chase. I feel > 95% chance this year it will retest 4.22 (top of opening gap), 80%-95% chance it will retest the bottom of the opening gap of 4.19, 50% chance it will retest to close the 9 July opening gap at 4.06. You may split into 2-3 bullets of equal/unequal size depending. More important is position sizing - it should not be more than 10% of your total portfolio.
- If you are looking to divest PBBANK - I am not - any selling should be near the top of the triangle, or higher. If you don't have many trading alternatives, sometimes, some retailers sell before it goes ex-div, because after ex-div when price gap down and fall, sometimes, it keeps falling for a few more sens. However I won't sell for 2 reasons:
- Because there are better trading ideas than PBBANK out there.
- Because if I sell some PBBANK there, then, I must buy more of them back at lower prices later, and that is a distraction for me.
Good luck!
Disclaimer: As usual, you and only you are fully responsible for your investment and trading decisions.
BLee
Very balance view, I won't sell mine too...
2024-07-21 11:14