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PBBANK - Updated Chart

DividendGuy67
Publish date: Sun, 21 Jul 2024, 05:10 AM

I previously blogged about PBBANK here and accumulated more as price fell.  My last accumulation was RM4.

So, I thought I provide this update for 2 reasons.

  1. There's subsequent discussions on how high PBBANK will hit - an i3member shares the belief that PBBANK will hit RM4.50 in September and it piqued my curiosity on the odds of this happening.  Everything is possible.
  2. There's still interest to accumulate PBBANK by others even though I have my fill already.  So, this update may benefit those who haven't accumulated enough.

So, I think it's worthwhile to look at both Weekly and Daily Charts. (the previous monthly chart still haven't changed that much).

Weekly Chart

  1. Note the downtrend line resistance in purple - it's slightly lower than RM4.50.  
  2. Note the still sizeable gap in the triangle - and they still haven't meet post 2025.  So, odds are price is more likely to still "ding-dong" inside the triangle consolidation say 55% chance.
  3. One more thing - there's a tendency that the top purple line can act as a magnet to attract prices this year.  

Daily Chart

  1. Besides the downtrend line resistance, 2 more observations. 
  2. First, the importance of 4.29 line.  Second the 2 opening gaps on 9 Jul and 18 Jul.
  3. I am also expecting 9 sen dividend in September as my base case. (67% odds).  I'm expecting price to fall after ex-div in mid September (the only question is how much after falling).

Key Summary Takeaways

  1. I feel majority odds, that up to September ex-div, price will stay inside the large gap triangle bounded by say a few sen below 4.50 at the top, and perhaps 4.06 at the bottom.  My base case is more price "ding-dong" till then. 
  2. If you are looking to still accumulate PBBANK, then, majority chance no need to chase.  I feel > 95% chance this year it will retest 4.22 (top of opening gap), 80%-95% chance it will retest the bottom of the opening gap of 4.19, 50% chance it will retest to close the 9 July opening gap at 4.06.  You may split into 2-3 bullets of equal/unequal size depending.  More important is position sizing - it should not be more than 10% of your total portfolio.
  3. If you are looking to divest PBBANK - I am not - any selling should be near the top of the triangle, or higher.  If you don't have many trading alternatives, sometimes, some retailers sell before it goes ex-div, because after ex-div when price gap down and fall, sometimes, it keeps falling for a few more sens.   However I won't sell for 2 reasons:
    1. Because there are better trading ideas than PBBANK out there.  
    2. Because if I sell some PBBANK there, then, I must buy more of them back at lower prices later, and that is a distraction for me.

Good luck!

Disclaimer:  As usual, you and only you are fully responsible for your investment and trading decisions.   

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3 people like this. Showing 1 of 1 comments

BLee

Very balance view, I won't sell mine too...

2024-07-21 11:14

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