17th November 2011
Top Story: Taking Stock ' Hope and fear, momentum and value
Market Update
'' Recently, key markets have been moving up, in direct contrast to the underlying economic turmoil affecting the EU. Rather than try to predict which direction the market will swing, we have taken a bottom-up and two-pronged approach to identify stocks that are interesting from momentum and value perspectives.
Corporate Highlights
TH Plantation: Charting the path for long-term growth Outperform
Briefing Note
'' KPI target for FY11 is to achieve an FFB yield of 22t/ha, or FFB production growth of 6.9% yoy. However, management believes that growth could surpass that to reach double-digits of 10-12%, given the still strong production numbers seen in Oct and Nov so far. Up to 9MFY11, THP achieved FFB production growth of 7.6% yoy, higher than our projected 5.4%. Given the positive outlook, we are now raising our FFB yield assumptions, resulting in a production growth of 10% yoy (from 5.4%) for FY11, while our FY12-13 projections have also been revised to 5% (from 7%) and 15% (from 17%), respectively.
Dialog: In-line for 1QFY12 Outperform
1QFY12 Results
'' 3MFY12 net profit of RM44.5m was largely within expectations, accounting for 21.5% of our (RM206.8m) and 22.6% of consensus (RM197.1m) estimates.
AMMB: Dialing down expectations Underperform
2QFY12 Results
'' 2Q net profit fell 16% qoq, but this was within our and consensus expectations.
AFG: 1H headline net profit strong, but unlikely to be sustained Underperform
2QFY12 Results
'' AFG reported 2QFY03/12 net profit of RM121m (+18.3% yoy; -6.6% qoq). This brought 1H net profit to RM251m (+18% yoy), which was 54-54.5% of our and consensus full-year estimates.
Amway: 3Q revenues boosted by seasonal factor and increased sales from marketing Outperform
3QFY11 Results
'' 9MFY12/11 net profit of RM65.1 (+8.5% yoy) was in line with our and consensus estimates, accounting for 73% and 74% of our and consensus earnings forecasts respectively.