Baltic Exchange shipping updates: March 24, 2023

A weekly round-up of tanker and dry bulk market (March 24, 2023)

This report is produced by the Baltic Exchange.

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Capesize

The Capesize market declined early in the week without much support from either of the basins. The timecharter average, however, started to pick up midweek reaching over US$15,000 (RM53,136). The direction of the Brazil to Qingdao run changed after the force majeure was lifted, which was declared after the landslide incident last week. This helped the demand out of Brazil with few ballasters to make the second half of April loading, but a wide spread between bids and offers remained. In the Pacific, the West Australia to Qingdao run was priced between mid-US$8s to the low-US$9s during the week, with the transpacific round voyage sitting above US$17,000 before the weekend approached.

Panamax

Overall a week of slow erosion for the Panamax market. This is despite some resistance and a midweek push on FFAs. Again, the North Atlantic returned a distinct lack of mineral requirements. This continued to undermine the market here and there were few Transatlantic grain deals of note. An 82,000-dwt achieved US$13,250 for a trip via NC South America back to Skaw-Barcelona. Front haul volumes from the Americas were lacking with limited reports and an 82,000-dwt agreed close to mid-US$16,000s plus mid-US$600,000s ballast bonus delivery EC South America. Asia returned a mixed week with varying degrees of rates fixed for the route P3A round trips. Rates achieved for BPI82 types ranged from sub US$10,000, for the sub index type and early date tonnage, to US$17,000 for nice grain clean types. With this in mind, the true market value was hard to pinpoint. There was limited period activity, although a 95,000-dwt delivery Japan agreed to US$17,000 for a four to six-month period.

Ultramax/Supramax

It was a rather patchy week for the sector. Overall sentiment remained fairly healthy in the Atlantic with sustained interest from the US Gulf and Mediterranean regions. Some felt that from South America fresh demand remained fairly flat, but tonnage supply was a little limited. From Asia, limited fresh enquiry was seen in the south putting downward pressure on rates. From the north, there was again limited fresh enquiry. Some commented that the market from here was finely balanced and fairly positional. From the Atlantic, a 61,000-dwt was heard fixed delivery Poland for a trip via the Baltic to India at US$18,250. Elsewhere, a 58,000-dwt was heard fixed delivery West Africa for a trip to East Coast India at US$17,000. From Asia, a 61,000-dwt was fixed delivery Kohsichang via Indonesia redelivery Japan at US$17,000. From the Indian Ocean, a little more activity surfaced. A 53,000-dwt open Dahej end March fixed a trip via West Coast India redelivery Vietnam at US$16,000. Meanwhile, a 63,000-dwt open Mombasa fixed around US$18,000 plus US$170,000 ballast bonus for a South Africa to Pakistan run.

Handysize

After an unbroken positive run since February 15, the BHSI made its first downward move this week as the Asia basin showed signs of negative moves. A 28,000-dwt was rumoured to have been fixed for a trip from Indonesia to East Coast India with an intended cargo of steels at US$9,000. Meanwhile, a 38,000-dwt open in Thailand was rumoured to have been fixed for a trip to the Arabian Gulf at US$12,500. From the Atlantic, East Coast South America saw a 38,000-dwt fix basis delivery when where ready San Nicolas for a trip to Dakar with an intended cargo of grains at around US$17,000. There had been more activity in the Mediterranean, with a 37,000-dwt fixing basis delivery in the Sea of Marmara via Constanta to Tunisia with an intended cargo of grains at US$12,500. Off the continent, a 34,000-dwt was fixed from Hamburg to North Coast South America at US$11,000.

Clean

The BCTI finished the week at 1,191, up from 1,077 the previous week.

Rates for MRs in the US have continued their recent roller-coaster ride. Starting off at WS109.17 for TC14 38,000 US Gulf / UK-Continent, they reached a peak around WS150 before losing most of the gains to settle at WS116.67 at the end of the week. TC18 38,000 MR US Gulf / Brazil followed TC14 to end the week at WS209.17 (+27.5). TC21 38,000 MR US Gulf / Caribbean started the week at US$675,000, peaking at US$966,667 before settling at US$700,000 (+US$25,000).

On TC6 30k MR Algeria / European Mediterranean rates firmed significantly throughout the week due to a combination of poor weather and French port strikes resulting in the index finishing at WS451.25, up WS117.5. The LR1s of TC16 60,000 Amsterdam / Offshore Lome steadily declined over the course of the week losing WS2.85 points to finish at WS179.29.

West of Suez, on the LR2s, TC15, 80,000 Mediterranean / Japan, softened losing US$233,333 and finishing the week at US$3,916,667. In the Middle East Gulf, freight levels registered steady falls from where they were this time last week. The LR2s of TC1, 75,000 Middle East Gulf / Japan, edged down WS1.25 from WS182.50 to finish the week at WS181.25 (+1.56) - a round-trip TCE of US$47,851 per day. LR1s have also seen a similar downward trajectory over the last week with TC5, 55,000 Middle East Gulf / Japan, declining WS13.92 to WS181.79. On TC8 Middle East Gulf / UK Cont, again rates softened throughout the week finishing at 55.38 US$/mt (a lumpsum equivalent of US$3.6m). The MRs of TC17, 35kt Middle East Gulf / East Africa, showed some recovery resulting in a decrease of 37.86 points to WS266.43 a round trip TCE of US$32,524 per day.

VLCC

The VLCC market was softer in all regions this week. For the 270,000mt Middle East Gulf to China voyage the rate fell seven points to WS90.32, which shows a daily round voyage TCE of US$83,000 basis the Baltic Exchange’s vessel description. The rate for 280,000mt Middle East Gulf to US Gulf (via the cape/cape routing) is assessed two points down at WS60.61. In the Atlantic market, the rate for 260,000mt West Africa/China is three points lower than a week ago at WS89.91, a round-trip TCE of US$82,500 per day. The rate for 270,000mt US Gulf/China is about US$50,000 lower at US$11,750,000 (close to US$66,000 per day round trip TCE).

Suezmax

The rate for 135,000mt CPC/Augusta continued on an upward trend, gaining nine points to just shy of WS182.5 (a round-trip TCE of US$100,500 per day). In the Atlantic, a busy US Gulf export market has been competing with West Africa for tonnage. The rate for 130,000mt Nigeria/Rotterdam is another eight points stronger at between WS142.5-145 level (US$67,800 daily TCE basis a round-trip). In the Middle East, the rate for 140,000mt Basrah/Lavera rose four points to about the WS76-77 mark.

Aframax

In the North Sea market, the rate for the 80,000mt Hound Point/Wilhelmshaven route regained 10 points to WS180 (a round-trip daily TCE of US$76,000). In the Mediterranean, the rate for 80,000mt Ceyhan/Lavera rocketed 90 points to WS300 (a daily round trip TCE of US$124,500) with further gains being capped by Suezmaxes switching focus to Aframax cargoes.

Across the Atlantic, the Stateside Aframax market was weaker. The rate for 70,000mt East Coast Mexico/US Gulf shed 15.5 points to WS382.5 (US$144,400 per day round-trip TCE) and the rate for 70,000mt Covenas/US Gulf lost 10 points to WS362.5 (a daily round-trip TCE of US$124,500). For the trans-Atlantic route of 70,000mt US Gulf/Rotterdam, the rate is 11 points softer at WS261-262 level (showing a round-trip TCE of US$78,500 per day).

LNG

A continued quiet market on the spot has moved rates down on all three routes once again. While the Pacific market still holds a premium over the west, it is mainly to do with tighter tonnage rather than increased demand. Charterers have held off enquiry (what little is there) and more sublet tonnage has been marketed. However, with little period enquiry as well, on terms shorter than a year. There hasn’t been much to change or focus on with the shipping side this week. More news is coming out that as LNG storage and supply remains high, usage has decreased. This has subsequently had a downward pressure on charter rates. Rates for BLNG1g closed at US$68,515 — a fall of a little over US$5,000 this week — while BLNG2g and BLG3g also fell to close at US$46,834 and US$55,740 respectively. US exports of LNG are increasing again with a reported 27 LNG carriers departing US plants over the last week. This is an increase of five from the week before. Perhaps the Pacific basins premium has begun to weaken and an increased demand for spot US liftings will have a positive impact on the rates which have been lacklustre of late. Rates for term changed little with our current estimations for a 174,000 two-stroke vessel with 0.085% boil off and delivery one month ahead: US$183,250 for 12 months, and US$150,250 for three years.

LPG

With a holiday in Japan and another LPG conference in the East, the BLPG1 market was continuing its quiet spell. There were fixtures taking place. But with the window moving further out again into mid-April, rates have taken a slight hit. Rates for a Ras Tanura-Chiba fell by over US$4 this week from a high of US$93.857 to US$89.429, taking around US$5,000 off TCE earnings which fell to US$74,455 for a round voyage. With more market participants back next week there is the opportunity for rates to rise back again over the US$90 threshold and sentiment would support some sort of rise.

Out in the West, it was an even more sombre story as rates fell for both BLPG2 and BLPG3 with very little activity and few cargoes reported. As ever, the Panama Canal remains in many market players’ minds with delays still causing issue to tonnage. The list is remaining tight, but there isn’t enough enquiry to stave off any falls on freight. BLPG2 closed at US$79.60, down from US$82, while BLPG3 Houston-Chiba saw a greater fall from highs of US$145.143 to close below US$140 at US$139.357.

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