It’s a monumental moment for Japan. The board is weighing whether to end an era that saw the most aggressive monetary easing in modern history.

(March 18): Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor Kazuo Ueda and his board have one more day to decide if it’s time for the nation’s first interest rate hike in 17 years, amid simmering speculation that it will proceed.

Some 90% of BOJ watchers sees the risk of authorities ending the negative rate on Tuesday at the meeting’s conclusion, with that likelihood bolstered after the nation’s largest union group announced first-round results to annual wage negotiations that far exceeded expectations.

It’s a monumental moment for Japan. The board is weighing whether to end an era that saw the most aggressive monetary easing in modern history. In addition to a potential departure from the -0.1% negative rate, the fate of a slew of extraordinary tools including yield curve control and massive asset purchases is hanging in the balance.

The policy experiment’s near-term demise is a near certainty.

“Chances have risen for the BOJ to choose March,” said Yuichi Kodama, the chief economist of Meiji Yasuda Life Research Institute. “Waiting until April would be meaningless if the market is going to price in the move at 100% if they don’t act this time.”

If the central bank moves in March, it is widely expected to switch its policy rate for the overnight unsecured call rate, and set it in a range between zero and 0.1%.

BOJ officials are also considering ending their buying of exchange-traded funds and real estate investment funds, though they will continue to buy government debt to maintain stability in the bond market, according to people familiar with the matter.

Markets are primed to turn on the BOJ decision, with a rate hike on Tuesday potentially providing near-term support to the yen. Strength in the currency would be liable to weigh on stocks, which have benefited from the cheap yen.

Opinions among traders and economists have vacillated in recent days in parallel to swings in volatile swap rates that reflect expectations for policy change.

There was no unanimous view even inside the bank as recently as early last week, according to people familiar with the matter. That was before the federation of unions, Rengo, announced last Friday that its members had secured wage increases of 5.28% on average, far above the 4.1% predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, and marking the biggest gains in more than 30 years.

A delay may trigger a sharp weakening in the yen in the short term, possibly even back past 150 to the dollar and into an area of concern for the government.

The wage hikes were seen as the final data set for the board to consider as part of its deliberations, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg ahead of that news.

Japan’s benchmark 10-year sovereign bond yield edged higher late last Friday after the wage results. Some investors see the 10-year yield rising above 1.25% by year end as the BOJ changes direction.

Worker pay gains play a critical role as the BOJ pursues a goal of achieving 2% sustainable inflation. Increases that outpace inflation could be the catalyst that sets in motion a virtuous cycle in which wage growth feeds into demand-led price gains.

Even with the pay momentum, Ueda has the option of waiting for another month. Unlike his global peers, the BOJ governor faces little risk of the sort of runaway inflation that prompted aggressive tightening in the US and Europe. Data due on Friday are expected to show consumer price growth accelerated in February, but the pace is forecast to stay under 3%, with much of the gain largely due to base effects.

Those touting April as the likely timing maintain there’s no rush. The bank will get a large volume of data just ahead of the April 25-26 gathering, making that meeting an opportune time to move, former BOJ chief economist Kazuo Momma said.

There could be mixed views on the board. If Ueda pushes for a landmark decision to lift off on Tuesday, he may not get a unanimous consensus. So far, he’s refrained from dropping clear hints on his preferred timing, merely repeating his pledge to take appropriate steps after a comprehensive review of the economy.