Tenaga’s 9M23 was largely in line with our expectations at 71% of our fullyear forecast. We expect 4Q23 to be stronger on narrower fuel margins.
The company added ~120MW of RE capacity in Australia during the quarter following the acquisition of Spark Renewables in September 2023.
Reiterate Add rating with a DCF-based TP ofRM12.00.
3Q23 Results Review
Tenaga’s 3Q23 normalised net profit rebounded by 13% qoq on the back of more stable costs (following the sharp rise in overheads in the previous quarter), a slightly lower negative fuel margin of RM202m (vs. RM266m in 2Q23) and a lower effective tax rate of 17% (vs. 27% in 2Q23) due to higher capital allowance and reinvestment allowance claims.
On a yoy basis, normalised net profit declined by 29% in 3Q23 and 20% in 9M23, mainly due to higher fuel costs despite lower spot prices (due to negative fuel margins recognised given the time lag in realising the benefits of lower coal and gas prices; 9M23 negative fuel margin amounted to RM768m compared to a positive fuel margin of RM917m enjoyed in 9M22).
Overall, the 9M23 normalised net profit made up 71% of our full-year forecast and 64% of Bloomberg consensus. We expect 4Q23 earnings to be stronger as the negative fuel margin narrows further on the back of more stable coal prices.
Other Observations From the Quarter
The GenCo reported a loss after tax of RM328m in 9M23 vs. a PAT of RM1.1bn in 9M22. If we normalise the earnings for the distortions caused by fuel margins, we estimate GenCo made a PAT of ~RM440m in 9M23 vs. ~RM193m in 9M22.
Encouragingly, receivables continue to trend lower, standing at RM13.4bn in 3Q23 from RM14.5bn in 2Q23, RM19.7bn in 1Q23 and RM22.8bn in 4Q22.
Electricity demand grew by 3.6% yoy in 3Q23, driven mainly by the commercial (+6.8%) and residential (+7%) segments while industrial remained weak (-1.6%).
Generation mix during the quarter remained skewed toward coal (59%), followed by gas (35%) and the balance comprising primarily hydro and solar.
Tenaga’s RE generation capacity mix increased by 2% pts yoy during the quarter to 18%, adding ~120MW of solar capacity in Australia following the completion of the acquisition of Spark Renewables on 20 September 2023.
Reiterate Add With a TP of RM12.00
We continue to see TNB as a key beneficiary of the country’s National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR), which aims to position Malaysia as a leader in the energy transition agenda in the region. Valuations are attractive for a liquid large-cap index stock, currently at an EV/EBITDA of 5x on 2024F estimates, whilst offering decent yields of close to 5%. Key catalysts include further details on Tenaga’s involvement in Malaysia’s RE ambitions creating a new growth angle for the stock. A resurgence in fuel prices and unfavourable changes to the Incentive Based Regulation (IBR) framework and ICPT mechanism are potential downside risks.
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