Every stock has its day and often associated with notable news/announcements. Will their performances sustain and reflect a true market view (Dow theory).. Lets take a look at these daily hot stocks and observe their performances at T+1, T+2, T+3(last pick-up day) and T+4:
T (21/08/13) |
MAYBANK |
PUNCAK | MALTON |
GOB |
INSTACO | ..... |
* Market mover = market perception/sentiment(stochastic, major investor activities) + hedge-fund/contra activities(active volatility, futures movements) + news/announcement(uncertainties, market usually heading)
- Investment time frame in stock market may be compressed through trading of hot stocks (by tracking the development / progress of first day up candle, probable wave following last wave up volume > down volume, for examples). Stocks with holding fundamental may also emerge as hot stocks on their upward runs.
- Investor/enthusiast on the KLCI and allocation of its component stocks may visit this site (updating weekly) for some quantitative info.
* Stock trading vs dice rolling: Take a stock as dice and the entry price as 3.5, numbers above 3.5 as up and below 3.5 as down. Roll the dice, chance that the stock will go up or get down is equal and volatile.
- Trade two stocks as roll two dices and take the sum. Perform this simulation(click here) and see how the investment may vary.. (best wishes in rolling-over.. and may the good news match the stocks of your choice!)
* Pascal's wager and probability: Consider two mutually exclusive possibilities. If there is no god, then believing in him will be of little matter. However, if there is a god, then believing in him will bring you the infinite happiness of an eternity in heaven, and not believing in him will bring you the infinite unhappiness of an eternity in hell. So even if your subjective probability of god existing is arbitrarily small but greater than zero, your expected gain from believing that god exist will be infinite. We now understand that Pascal's reasoning is flawed since it depends on his particular listing of the possible states of the world. For example, another possibility is that if god exists, believers are sent to hell sine no human has enough information to conclude this is true, while doubters, who have the correct view given the information available, go to heaven. - excerpt from: A History of the Theory of Investment. M. Rubinstein (2006)