firerain collection
The best positioned plantation company:Boustead Plantation Berhad(BPLANT).
After study all the plantation company listed in Bursa,i found BPLANT is the best proxy to ride on the Crude Palm Oil(CPO) rally.
As we know,global food price is increase rapidly since 2021 due to supply chain interrupted by various issues.All agricaltural comodities had risen more than 100% since early last year.Soybean,the major rival of palm oil,had shoot up from USD25/lb to more than USD60/lb currently.CPO had also risen from RM2000 per ton to above RM4000 per ton currently,plantation companies are reporting excellent profit growth currently and the momentum is getting strong with CPO raised to historical high few days ago.
World Bank,the independent organisation which is very prudent,is telling us an exciting story in their latest 21/4/2010 report,which predict average Palm oil price of USD975(about RM4000) this year,and remain above USD900(RM3650) until 2025.
Base on World Bank's forecast,i'll said almost all Plantation stocks in BURSA is deeply undervalue at current price,as market analysts currently using outdated figures of RM2600-RM3000 as reference price when calculate fair value of plantation stocks.
YES,company like SOP, SWKPLNT, FGV, TSH, JTIASA, BPLANT, KLK, IOICORP, UTDPLT, KMLOONG,All UNDERVALUED currently.
I prefer BPLANT Because of reasons below:
1.)No indonesia exposure
Bplant owned more than 70,000 hectare planted oil palm estate, all located in malaysia.so,Bplant can fully benefited from CPO rally,as government only charge Maximum of 5% windfall tax(above RM2500) + 8% export tax when CPO price above RM3450,but indonesia government gonna charge 60% export tax from every extra RM100 above RM2800.So,at current CPO price,pure malaysia plantation company looks more attractive to me.
(Of course, indonesia estates owners will also report fantastic earning growth in coming quarter,like TSH and KLK,also a good buy if you prefer indonesia exposure for own reasons)
2.)Pure palm oil player
Bplant is a pure upstream palm oil player,100% focus on plantation estates and mills,so result more predictable.At current CPO price,i know BPLANT gonna report super profit growth in coming quarters,as the profit of BPLANT is following CPO closely.
Company like JTIASA,TAANN or WTK also operating timber business,so company profit will not 100% follow CPO,could be better or could be not,depends on timber business's performance,which i could not predict,so i choose to avoid even most of them is also very undervalue at current price.
3.)FFB mostly produced from own estates
One of the advantage of BPLANT is they produced FFB by their own.This is very important to ensure the cost wont rise much during CPO rally,as the cost to maintain estates mostly fixed,so the cost of FFB wont rise in tandem with CPO rally,might rise a bit, but not as much as buying FFB from third party with rising price.
For example,company like KMLOONG and SWKPLNT have buy more than 50% FFB from other estates owner to support their mills operation.Thats why you can see KMLOONG's latest profit is not as good as other planters,because input cost is rising with CPO price.However,both companies will also doing well going forward as they also benefited from raising CPO price too.
Based on financial report's data,BPLANT is produce more than 85% of the FFB which is use to produce CPO in mills,which i believe this will be a crucial factor to deliver superior profit in coming quarters.
4.)No hedging
While many planters starting to lock CPO price with future or forward contract since CPO rise above RM3000,BPLANT doesn't involve in any hedging activities so far,thus ensure the company can 100% enjoy CPO rally.
Hedging means when planter think RM3000 is very good to them,and they wish to lock the price for future production,they will go to sell or short CPO future contract at RM3000.by doing this,they will eliminate the risk of fluctuation for a period of time,but also give up any chance for price to rise further.
for example,Planter A sell or short CPO future at RM3000 to lock price for next month CPO production.When time had come,CPO had risen to RM4000,the planter can sell CPO at RM4000,but at the same time Planter A had to buy or long CPO future at RM4000 to close position, and suffer RM1000 losses from the transaction.
RM4000-RM1000,Planter A is actually selling CPO at RM3000(locked as Planter A wished)
From the example above, we will know that even CPO is risen to above RM4000 currently,some plantation company wont be able to selling their CPO at market price,because they had lock part of the future production at lower price,so derivative losses is expected.
Another example,UTDPLT had released 1st quarter result two week ago ,and even latest revenue increase by more than 25%,net profit is drop by 8%(while it should be increase much more than revenue growth).The reason behind was because UTDPLT had suffer RM54 million futures losses from hedging.Otherwise,net profit should be grow by around 50% y-o-y.
So,since BPLANT did not involve in hedging,i foresee coming quarters's profit gonna be 100% reflect CPO rally as no derivative losses is expected.Also,BPLANT had achieved highest CPO selling price since last year.
5.)Estates deeply undervalued
Among all the plantation stocks,BPLANT is the most undervalued one if we look from asset perspective.The net asset value(NAV)of BPLANT was RM1.15 as at end of 2020,and current share price was RM0.625,which means BPLANT is currently trading at merely 0.52x of the NAV,the lowest among pure planters which is generally trading at 1.0-2.0x of NAV.
Bear in mind that BPLANT is one of the oldest plantation company in bursa,they had accumulated many strategic estates in penisular malaysia with low price decades ago,these estates is close to township or indrustrial area,thus very valuable now,any(if) disposal activities should generate substantial cash and profit in future.
And this is why Maybank Investment Bank continue to predict BPLANT could be privatisation target as the offeror can finance the deal by simply selling few pieces of lands owned by BPLANT.
6.)Potential to pay dividend quarterly
Before 2019,BPLANT was the only Plantation company that paying dividend quarterly,means investor will get dividend 4 times a year.After stop paying dividend quarterly due to low CPO price in year 2019 and 2020(0.5cen for 2019 and 1cen for 2020),i notice BPLANT had started to pay dividend quarterly again for the last two quarter,and this never happen since the begining of 2019.
So,i believe BPLANT is starting to pay dividend quarterly again,please monitor 1st quarter financial report which is due to release this month,and if another dividend is announce,then we can conclude the aggresive dividend pay out policy is back.
Bplant was generating RM220 million Free cash flow in FY2020,which is equal to 10cen per share,and the figure was achieved when CPO only averaged at RM2811.For FY2021,CPO was averaged at more than RM4000 from january to april,so it is reasonable to assume that Free Cash Flow generated this year should be much higher than last year,which should translate into higher dividend pay out.
For reference,Bplant had paid:
3cen per share for FY2014
6.5cen for FY2015
7.25cen for FY2016
9.75cen for FY2017
3.5cen for FY2018
I encourage more people to join me and do your own research on Palm Oil stocks and share your finding here in i3investor,as palm oils stocks were generally under coverage by medias and analysts.The sector has potential to win big for everyone as the upcycle was just kick-off.Good luck to everyone.
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3 people like this. Showing 12 of 12 comments
When the severe covid19 & lockdown hit the major western countries, alot of people are anticipating Great economic impacts and severe stock market crash that are more severe than The Great Depression in 1929 & Great Recession in 2008 loh!
But luckily most Government chose option 3 that are quantitative easing & sharp monetary interest reduction throughout the world mah!
These strategy prevented complete collapse of the stockmarket & the severe negative impact of recession due to the lock down & averted the unrest of people throughout the world due economic hardship loh..!
General Raider still thinks that this is the best tools adopted by the govt coordinating throughout the world loh!
Yes there are many job losses due to business collapse but the govt has created safety nets through handout plus job support directly plus lowering the interest rates drastically through quantitative easing as a result most economy did not freeze thus avoided recession or worse a depression loh!
We must bear in mind most of the western world had very high rate of borrowing, if the govt had chosen option 1 or 2 the world will be a dead duck and the whole world stock market & business will severely collapse & we will be in for another Great Recession just only 12 years after the previous Great Recession in 2008.
Bcos of the Govt action the impact on the economy, business and stock market have been very much milder than expected loh!
2021-05-10 00:26
the quantitative easing throughout the world are as follows USA has printed extra 29% monies, Europe 18% and Msia 6%....plus countries like Japan, China & others loh!
Beside quantitative easing the monetary interest of Usa were brought down to zero, Europe negative interest And Japan negative interest this in a way help the climate of business, investment and stock market with lower cost of funds thus in a way alot of business avoided bankruptcy and stock market complete collapse bcos liquidity & credit are available loh!
The negative consequence of quantitative easing is latent inflation and currency depreciation loh! But this did not happen loh!
Firstly the liquidity & handout & support the Govt the recipient use these resources to paydown debts, for investment and for saving for the rainy days loh!
2ndly There are not much opportunity to spend, the world is in a severe lockdown & people fear losing their jobs there are little incentive to be any big spender Mah!
3rdly since no one are really spending big & some business are closing down most country did not experience inflation in fact there are mild disinflation for the 1st few months loh!
As a result the stockmarket benefited as the return on equity are very much higher than the meagre return putting monies in the banks.
Then when will inflation, currency depreciation and lost of productivity due business closure really strike leh ?
2021-05-10 00:26
Since Usa printed 29% more of its monies and Europe print 18% more and msia 6% why usa currency did not really fell agst msia and why Europe with negative interest rate , its currency did not collapse leh ?
In fact europe the currency appreciated instead loh!
As for Usa the currency did not really depreciated agst msia despite Usa print much more than msia leh ??
U see valuation of currency is quite unique mah!
There are many factors affecting exchange rate these includes;
1. Confidence & rating
2. Govt Policy
3. Interest Rates
4. Inflation
5. Purchasing Power parity
6. Balance of Payment & Reserves it hold
7. Economic power of the country
Thus despite USA score badly on printing monies despite it has appreciated alot previously b4 QE, it has not depreciated much agst msia post QE maybe say 1% to 3% down, this is mainly due to msia credit rating was downgraded from A- to BBB+ loh!
Going fwd RM wii be volatile if u look at the 8 factors affecting MYR loh! Any of those element will impact the exchange rate mah!
2021-05-10 00:26
Thus when will rapid inflation going to hit us leh ?
U see Keynesian theory says u need to spend money b4 economic growth kick in & eventually lead to inflation mah!
If u hoard cash, pay down debts and refuse to commit on spending all these are disinflationary mah!
Right now only the Govt are really planning to spend big loh!
If u look at Covid 19, we are already been thru more than 1 yr...right now we actually at phase 3 the emerging recovery phase, where vaccine are here and the world already not so fear of covid 19, bcos we now understand more of it loh!
We are getting ready for the world economy to open up soon loh..!
Raider see somewhere July to Sept the world economy will open up with a very big bang and inter country will be allowed to travel loh!
That will means big spending will come and people will spend very big with revenge in mind loh!
Tokyo olympic in July, will be the beginning of the open up phase loh!
Now as for inflation it is already on its way here loh!
All commodities Food like soya bean, corn, wheat, palmoil all ramp up. Industrial products like copper, alum, steel, lumber, oil, resin, chemical all begin to move up high in tandem mah!
Freight cost had already move up sky high loh!
Eventually all these will translate to inflationary pressure & higher price on our consumer products in the form of cost push inflation, General Raider expect this is somewhere December 2021.
The next Stage will come in the form of demand pull inflation in the form of revenge spending where excess demand overwhelm supplies that will be by June 2022 loh!
The stockmarket will have 1 big leg of continuous run up until December 2022, in which by then whole world will start to take action to prevent rampant inflation loh!
2021-05-10 00:27
The best strategy to prepare for rampant inflation when it hit us in msia is to invest in palmoil plantation loh!
Yes buy what u understand loh!
Remember 2 of the world most richest & savvy investors w.buffet & bill gates like investing in farmland now mah!
U can emulate them now too mah....!!
Thats why the 2 richest savvy investors have taken note the point of concern that palmoil & commodity price cannot going up forever like the case of glove & eventually the commodity price will also fall 1 day mah!
To address this issue or concern w.buffet & bill gates, say buy farmland & palmoil plantation, even the commodity price fall, u still have great protection on the value of cheap plantation land & farmland mah..!
If u buy into cheap land, u have both margin of safety accorded by cheap land plus prospect of reaping great profit from high palmoil price loh!
Thus u should Quickly Buy into palmoil plantation now, b4 its price shoot up mah!
Time to be a little bit more contraian in view of mkt at reasonable high level mah!
Warren buffet says inflation is definitely coming in view of low interest interest and speculative sign such as bitcoin, rubbish stock price run up sky high and unrealistic stock valuation & expectation and now raw commodities price run up mah!
Bill Gates already bought alot of farmland at low in preparation & in anticipation for the coming armmagedoom coming mah!
Why would one the world tech best richest owner switch alot of his investment into farmland, this bcos farmland or value real estate if it is bought at reasonable low price, u cannot go wrong over longterm bcos the availability of land is limited, u cannot manufacture land like bitcoin mah!
Coming back to msia the equivalent to farmland is oil plantation, u still can get it real cheap & it is paying u reasonably good dividend loh...this is the best defensive & offensive play like bill gates and warren buffet had highlighted mah!
As calvin sifu said timber is at record price & palmoil at record price surely some optimism will spillover to plantation & timber share price mah!
But this up 1 to 2 sen is chicken feed mah, why up so little leh ??
Timber & palmoil share r suffering from lack of production mah and also huge impairment losses on its assets mah & previous falling share price mah!
Thus they are jittery on recovery of palmoil & timber share loh!! They want to see actual profit b4 jump in loh!!
That means if u base on profit...as indicator that means the share price will be lagging loh!
Then why promote Wtk leh ??
1. The owner , directors and insiders already accumulating quietly without fanfare mah!
2. The palmoil & timber production volume of wtk, mhc, jtiasa, boustead, ijm plant already creeping up loh...this is further support by the record price of its commodities. Just imagine u have higher prices & higher volume....that will be a very important sign of higher big profit coming mah!
3. The share price already corrected over 3 yrs of downtrend previously, when there is a big shakeout of all the weak holders...u can only grow more optimistic as time past by loh!
4. Wtk is sitting on some prime land that invested at a very low cost near major town & city, they are good development mah!
5. With all the liquidity & quantitative easing & low interest rate environment, u can see big inflation will be coming loh...!! Wtk in commodities business plus very big cheap land bank is a very good inflation protector mah!
Based on the above i think wtk , jayatiasa & ijmplant is the best pick to make profit & this is concur by sifu calvin findings also mah!
Posted by pjseow > May 8, 2021 6:08 PM | Report Abuse
Calvin and Ahbah , Investment timing is very important and be at least medium and long term horizon . Dont buy at the peak . Gloves stocks had came down 50 to 60 % from the peaks in August last year .
I did not promote glove counters then because the earnings were still not proven , PE were high . Glove stock prices peak before its ASP peak .
There was a 9 months to a year lead of the share prices over its ASPs . Glove stocks had finally PROVEN to deliver fantastic results in the last 3 qtrs after August 2020 while their prices came down 50 % .
THeir PE are less than 5 while they will continue to deliver superb results in the next few years with double and tripling of capacities .
The palm oil price cannot keep going up forever since it started picking up 2 years ago in 2019 .Likewise , the oil palm counters will peak soon or already peak now before its palm oil ASP peak which may happen in 3 to 6 months time or even earlier . When palm oils ASP came down finally , do the plantation counters have doubling of capacities to compensate for the drop in ASPs ?
2021-05-10 00:27
Inno the best. Pure palm oil play, net cash company, tree age average 8 years old, golden age to produce fresh fruit branches, Chart pending Breakout.
2021-05-10 21:41
yes,inno also good company to invest,clean balance sheet and high dividend yield:)
2021-05-11 02:09
Good info and explanation regarding the higher duties & taxes incur for planters in Indonesia vs Malaysian planters. Indonesia duties scheme is based on the pricing which is substantily higher vs Malaysia fixed levy structure
2021-05-18 19:00
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Dear Ben,
Earlier ur presentation abit long winded, Raider has trouble grasping what is ur point loh ? Since I notice u want to talk like an economist, General Raider will speak at your language loh!
U mentioned the following important point loh!
1.Severe Disruption in world economy due to covid19 & lockdown
2. The strategy adopted to cushioned the impact is thru interest reduction & quantitative throughout the world loh!
3. Usa & europe has printed 29% & 18% more monies yet USD depreciate only 6% v excess money printing, that means alot of hidden inflation ?
4. The majority of the Quantitative easing & Govt financial support have gone into the People personal savings instead into spending.
5. Keynesian theory says we must spend b4 we can kick start a major recovery & but beyond that will create an inflation loh!
6. MYR will not depreciate much compare to USD bcos we have printed currency only 6% v 29%
2021-05-10 00:25