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The Super undervalue and bullish sector for 2021:Oil Palm Plantation

firerain
Publish date: Fri, 07 May 2021, 01:29 AM

I believe everyone had heard about Palm Oil,and know Oil Palm Plantation is one of the most important economy sector in Malaysia.

But,Did you also know that why Palm Oil is so important not only to Malaysia,but also to the whole world?

The Facts and Potential of Palm Oil:

Palm Oil is the largest and most efficient vegetable Oil on earth,with market share about 35% in global edible oil market,other rivals include soybean oil,rapeseed oil,sunflower oil..etc,but none of these oil can fully replace Palm Oil due to their low efficiency.

●Palm Oil is very very very important to the world,it has been use in almost everything,close to 50% of the packaged products that we can see in supermarkets,hypermarket,or minimarket,contained with Palm oil,it is also been widely use in non-food products like sanitizer,shampoo,toopaste,various beauty products etc.

If Malaysia and Indonesia completely stop export Palm Oil to the world right now,palm oil inventory worldwide will be totally depleted within 100 days,and then the world gonna facing the most severe oil crisis in the history,millions of people might lose their job or even starve to die.

●Due to the importance and irreplaceable natural of Plam oil,MCO or CMCO will never affect business operation of palm oil industry,to ensure palm oil supply to worldwide uninterrupted and remain stable.Thats why Palm Oil sector never shut down in any single day under MCO1.0 and MCO2.0 previously,and will continue to do so.

In other words,Palm Oil Plantation is one of the most "special sector" that will remain untouched and allow to operate at full capacity even government roll-out the toughest lockdown in the future.

●At current CPO price,Oil Palm plantation gonna become the most profitable economy sector in malaysia this year,contributing billions of Ringgit tax revenue to malaysia's coffer,thus indirectly play a important role in fighting COVID19 and support B40 basic needs.

CPO is trading at above RM4000 per ton currently,which is extremely good price to oil palm planters,and i'll call it "Gold from the tree" with current price.

●Even labor shortage did cause some production losses to Oil Palm sector,but so far production figure from Plantation companies is satisfactory,as more than 350,000 plantation workers remain working here,so it is totally wrong to said plantation companies wont benefited much from CPO rally due to labor shortage.

The palm oil inventory of major palm oil import countries is very low,china has only 548,800 mt palm oil as of march 2021,which is about 50% lower than 1,024,000 mt on january 2020.The condition in India was even worst,has only 213,162 mt as of march,about 65% lower than 657,547 mt last year.

Since the inventory is extremely tight,all major import countries has to buy palm oil going forward no matter what is the price,because there is nothing else can replace palm oil right now,especially when soybean oil price is 30% higher than palm oil currently.

●Demand for Palm oil is growing in tandem with population and economy.Other than existing demand,the order from africa region and middle east is rising fast,demand from the two regions has huge potential to grow due to massive population(more than 1.2 billion) and rapid economic development.

●Palm oil is different from gloves.when price is high,the supply of gloves can catch up very fast,and gonna lead to over-supply eventually.But for palm oil,the supply hardly increase in short to medium term even price is high,as any new oil palm tree planting will take 4-5 year to mature and profuce FFB.

●Palm oil price is increasing from long term perspective,as the cost of production and population is increase every year.So,Even palm oil is trading at RM2000-3000 per tonnes for the last 9 year,it doesn't means palm oil will and should continue to trade within the range in years to come.Investors should adapted to the "NEW NORMAL" on palm oil price,and take the very rare opportunity to earn money from the trend.

●During year 1990-2000,Palm oil is generally trading at RM800-1200 per ton,from 2001 to 2006 at RM1000-1500 per tonnes,from 2007 to 2019 trading at RM2000-3000 per tonnes.so,if anyone think palm oil should continue to stay between RM2000-3000,well,time to refresh your mind and catch up,cos the world will never stop and wait for you. 

●Palm oil Had been accused by western countries as the main reason of deforestation.In facts,one hectare land can produce 3.3 ton palm oil per year,but can only produce 0.4 ton soybean oil and 0.7 ton rapeseed/sunflower oil(which produce mainly by western countries).

This means that when given the same size land,the world can produce 800% more palm oil than soybean oil,and 371% more palm oil than rapeseed/sunflower oil.So,to completely replace Palm Oil,western countries need to clear 400% to 800% more forest than we do.Which oil is more evil?

●To make Palm Oil more sustainable,The Roundtable of sustainable palm oil or RSPO was formed in 2004.The RSPO has a production standard that sets best practices to producing and sourcing palm oil,most malaysia oil palm company had been certified and recognize by RSPO,thus palm oil produce by malaysia had become the premium one with higher selling price globally.

●Furthermore,Malaysia had committed to Cap total oil palm planted area at 6.5 million hectares,to eliminate oil palm deforestation concern.Also,plantation companies also continue to work with NGO like WWF to minimize the environmental impact as well as enhance transparency.

Despite all the effort,US and allies continue to creating negative perception on Palm Oil,for example banning Sime Darby and Felda's palm oil import without provide solid reasons and evidents(only mention "forced labor",what a joke.).Or Is it simply because Palm Oil is treatening demand for soybean and other oils,which could affect US and allies's interest?

●WWF had been working on environmental conservation project all over the world and malaysia too,their words should be much more credible than US government,please read the Palm Oil information shared by WWF with your own eyes:

https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/8-things-know-about-palm-oil

Since oil palm plantation will be doing extremely well going forward,i strongly believe Plantation stocks will be re-valued by the market anytime soon,as current valuation is too cheap to ignore.This should be the best industry to invest in 2021/2022.

So,please tighten your seat belt,The Super bull run of plantation should be on the way.Stay tuned!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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