Microsoft recently announced it would end support for its Windows 10 operating system, a decision that will force many businesses with old computers to upgrade - and also potentially spur a boom in hard-to-dispose-of electronic waste.

The old operating system, which powers PC-format computers, originally launched in 2015, and was replaced by Windows 11 in 2021. Though Microsoft has said it will provide basic support for its older OS for years, new analysis says this could trigger a ewaste disaster.

Microsoft, which has a longstanding habit of trying to control how people use its products, has set some very strict PC requirements for Windows 11 compatibility. It won't run on older 32-bit computers (but it's not likely you'll have many of those lying around), and more importantly it needs a special "TPM" security chip on the motherboard. Only newer machines have these. Take a gander at that aging Dell laptop your CFO is using: That doesn't look like it'll support a fancy new, futuristic, A.I.-charged operating system, does it?

Canalys Research, a global technology market analysis firm, recently examined how often businesses hang onto older tech, and how Microsoft typically prices support for older versions of its operating systems. (Microsoft's full support for Windows 10 will end in October 2025, and extended support will be available at an undisclosed price for another three years.)

Canalys concluded that companies faced with Microsoft's bills for supporting aging PCs may decide to dump their older computers. This PC-dumping could provide a sudden surge in ewaste: as much as a million pounds of dead hardware around the world. If that were a pile of folded laptops all stacked up it would be "a pile 600km taller than the moon," Canalys said.

Ewaste is the fastest-growing waste stream in the U.S. Estimates suggest 80 to 85 percent of it finds its way into landfill sites, where noxious chemicals and metals leak into the soil from dead circuitry. Apple, responsible for putting billions of new bits of hardware into consumers' hands over the years, is acutely aware of the issue, and has tried many times to reduce its environmental footprint-though some critics disagree on the impact of the company's efforts.

Smaller companies will be a key factor in the Canalys forecast of a huge turnover in older PCs: They may even outpace large multinationals with hardware upgrades, since small companies are less likely to have large IT support teams. The business decision isn't too complex. It's either a sizable, lingering bill to keep an older set of computers lumbering on past their end-of-life dates, or a one-off capital expenditure to let a business run the latest software.

While business leaders may dread a PC changeover, some entrepreneurs see ewaste as a golden opportunity. And a silver and copper one. Some estimates suggest that around US$344mil in gold, US$46mil in silver, and US$10mil in copper is trashed every year just by Americans disposing of their old smartphones. There is a burgeoning market in ewaste recycling, with companies working hard to glean precious materials from dead hardware. A sudden influx of a million pounds of Windows 10 PCs could have a dramatic impact on this niche market.

So, small companies anticipating the hassle of a PC changeover can take heart about one aspect of Microsoft's Windows 10 decision: There are plenty of other small operators that will help dispose of newly created waste.

 - TNS