[SUNWAY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST,预计温和成长]
零售部门:
第三季度零售业务的净财产收入为7700万令吉,较2017年第三季度增长1.5%或120万令吉。截至二零一八年三月三十一日止三个季度,零售业务的总营收达到3亿1,530万令吉,较去年同期累积季度(二零一七年第三季度)上升3.6%或1110万令吉,是由于所有商场的贡献,除了Sun City Ipoh Hypermarket。
酒店部门:
酒店业务部门的第三季度总营收为1800万令吉,与2017年第三季度相比增长18.1%或RM270万。此乃主要由于Sunway Pyramid Hotel于二零一七年六月全面完成翻新后提高了300万令吉的营收,以及Sunway Clio Property于二零一八年二月九日完成收购事项后而产生的二百二十万令吉新收入,但部分收入被Sunway Resort Hotel和Sunway Putra Hotel的收入下降所抵消。
酒店业务部门YTD 3Q2018的总营收为6,390万令吉,与去年YTD 3Q2017相比增加37.8%或1750万令吉,主要是由于所有酒店的贡献增加以及新Sunway Clio Property的新贡献(2018年2月9日完成收购),但Sunway Hotel Seberang Jaya除外。
办公室部门:
办公室分部的第三季度总营收为850万令吉,与去年同期相比增加3.9%或RM30万,主要由Sunway Putra Tower贡献,但部分被Wisma Sunway抵消。办公室部门YTD 3Q2018总营收为2,440万令吉,与YTD 3Q2017相比增加4.0%或RM90万,主要由Menara Sunway和Sunway Putra Tower的平均出租率较高贡献,但由Wisma Sunway部分抵销。
其他部门:
其他分部的总营收比上一年同季增加28.6%或RM160万,主要是由于Sunway REIT Industrial - Shah Alam 1的新贡献的140万令吉(收购于2017年8月1日完成)。
本季度营收从1.35亿令吉增加至1.42亿令吉,YoY+5.2%。 YTD 3Q2018的净利润为2.206亿令吉(YTD 3Q2017:2.056亿令吉),包括实现利润2.186亿令吉(YTD 3Q2017:2.038亿令吉)和未实现利润190万令吉(YTD 3Q2017:190万令吉)。
前景:
全球经济在主要经济体出现不同步和广泛的复苏,受到更强劲的投资活动和对外贸易复苏的帮助,尤其是在亚洲。随着私人消费和投资活动的积极势头,预计2018年同步增长的上升趋势将加速。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的统计,CY2017全球经济增长率为3.8%(2016年全年为3.2%),并预计全球经济增长率将上升至CY2018的3.9%。
马来西亚经济超过了其2017年的增长预期。经济在2017年经济增长率为5.9%(2016年:4.2%),超过官方预测的5.2%至5.7%。随着全球需求的增强,私人和公共部门支出的扩张速度加快以及出口反弹。马来西亚国家银行(BNM)将马来西亚经济增长预测提高到5.5%-6.0%(初步预测为5.0%-5.5%),受全球私营部门活动持续扩张带动和有利的外部需求(技术升级驱动和持续的全球商品价格)。
尽管预计平均债务成本上升,双威产托预计FY2018的DPU将温和增长,并受以下支持:
1)Sunway Pyramid Hotel于2017年6月全面完成翻新工程后提供所有客房。
2)Sunway Pyramid Shopping Mall支撑的零售业务增长。
3)完成收购Sunway REIT Industrial - Shah Alam 1和Sunway Clio Property的新收入贡献。
4)由于低基数效应,办公室部门整体入住率逐步改善。
零售部门展望:
马来西亚经济研究所(MIER)的消费者信心指数(CSI)在1QCY2018年上涨至91.0点,为自4QCY2014以来的最高水平。虽然CSI低于100点的乐观阈值,但消费者情绪的恢复令我们感到鼓舞,尽管这是缓慢的。
Sunway Pyramid Shopping Mall已经接近全面入住率,其平均入住率在YTD 3QFY2018上升至99.1%(YTD 2QFY2018:98.4%)。总可出租净额(NLA)651,428平方尺,预计于二零一八财政年度重续,总面积为493,916平方尺(相当于续展所需总面积的75.8%)已续订或以单位数字的租金回复率取代。
收购包括零售大楼和酒店大厦在内的Sunway Clio Property已于2018年2月完成收购。Sunway Clio Retail的平均入住率在YTD 3QFY2018为58.3%,而YTD 2QFY2018为43.2%。截至二零一八年三月三十一日,入住率为88.2%。过去一年的平均入住率较低是由于租户慢慢开店。
Sunway Carnival Shopping Mall的平均入住率由YTD 2QFY2018的96.2%进一步提高至YTD 3QFY2018的97.0%。总NLA 149,787平方英尺预计于二零一八财政年度更新,总面积为114,599平方呎(相当于续展所需总面积的76.5%)已续订或以单位数字的租金回复率取代。
Sunway Putra Mall的平均入住率略有上升,至YTD 3QFY201的90.5%(YTD 2QFY2018:89.4%)。
双威产托预计零售部门将于二零一八财年录得温和增长,并以Sunway Pyramid Shopping Mall为基础。
酒店部门展望:
政府致力于推动旅游活动,如与欧洲旅行社和旅游运营商协会合作推广马来西亚作为目的地,并通过各航空公司合作增加可达性。这些努力正在为2020年马来西亚之行铺平道路。
Sunway Clio Hotel的平均出租率从去年同期的58.7%上升至2018年第三季度的68.0%。
Sunway Putra Hotel于二零一八年第三季度的平均入住率稳定在67.8%(2017年第三季度:67.0%)。入住率受大公司健康需求支撑。
在槟城,酒店的平均入住率进一步增强。在二零一八年第三季度,Sunway Hotel Seberang Jaya的平均入住率上升至74.3%,而3QFY2017的平均出租率为63.9%,这是由于本季度大企业和政府部门的强劲需求。
与此同时,由于酒店继续享受本季度休闲服务业的强劲需求,Sunway Hotel George town 3QFY2018平均出租率从去年3QFY2017的86.4%提高到91.1%。
双威产托预计酒店业务将略有增长,其主要原因是Sunway Pyramid Hotel的全房库存供应以及Sunway Clio Hotel的新收入贡献。
办公室部门展望:
根据估价及物业服务部的资料显示,由于较高的办公室占用率导致入住率有所改善,办公室部门在二零一七年度略有改善。全国办公室的平均入住率从2016年的82.3%增加到2017年的83.3%。
在吉隆坡,由于新租约开始,Sunway Putra Tower的平均入住率有所提高。Sunway Putra Tower的平均出租率于YTD 3Q FY2018上升至48.5%,而YTD 2Q FY2018则为43.1%。
双威产托预计,由于基数较低,Sunway REIT的办公室部门在二零一八年财政年度的表现略有改善。
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James Ng
Retail segment:
Net property income of the retail segment for 3Q2018 was RM77.0 million, higher by 1.5% or RM1.2 million compared to 3Q2017. The retail segment achieved gross revenue of RM315.3 million for the cumulative quarter ended 31 March 2018(YTD 3Q2018), an increase of 3.6% or RM11.1 million compared to the preceding year corresponding cumulative quarter(YTD 3Q2017), contributed by all malls, except for Sun City Ipoh Hypermarket.
Hotel segment:
The hotel segment recorded gross revenue of RM18.0 million for 3Q2018, an increase of 18.1% or RM2.7 million compared to 3Q2017. This was primarily attributable to Sunway Pyramid Hotel with higher gross revenue by RM3.0 million following the full completion of its refurbishment in June 2017 and new contribution from Sunway Clio Property of RM2.2 million with the completion of the acquisition on 9 February 2018, but partially offset by lower gross revenue from Sunway Resort Hotel & Spa and Sunway Putra Hotel.
The hotel segment reported gross revenue of RM63.9 million for YTD 3Q2018, an increase of 37.8% or RM17.5 million compared to YTD 3Q2017 mainly due to higher contribution from all hotels and new contribution from Sunway Clio Property (acquisition completed on 9 February 2018), with the exception of Sunway Hotel Seberang Jaya.
Office segment:
The office segment registered gross revenue of RM8.5 million for 3Q2018, an increase of 3.9% or RM0.3 million compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter, largely contributed by Sunway Putra Tower but partially offset by Wisma Sunway. Gross revenue for the office segment was RM24.4 million for YTD 3Q2018, an increase of 4.0% or RM0.9 million compared to YTD 3Q2017 mainly contributed by Menara Sunway and Sunway Putra Tower with higher average occupancy rate but partially offset by Wisma Sunway.
Others:
Gross revenue for the others segment increased by 28.6% or RM1.6 million in 3Q2018 compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter mainly attributable to the new contribution from Sunway REIT Industrial - Shah Alam 1 of RM1.4 million (acquisition completed on 1 August 2017).
Revenue for this quarter increased from RM135m to RM142m, YoY+5.2%. Net profit for YTD 3Q2018 was RM220.6 million (YTD 3Q2017: RM205.6 million) comprising realised profit of RM218.6 million(YTD 3Q2017: RM203.8 million) and unrealised profit of RM1.9 million (YTD 3Q2017: RM1.9 million).
Prospects:
The global economy saw asynchronised and broad-based resurgence across major economies, under pinned by stronger investment activities and recovery in external trades, particularly in Asia. Synchronous uptrend in growth is expected to accelerate in 2018, riding on the positive momentum in private consumption and investment activities. According to the International Monetary Fund(IMF), world growth strengthened to 3.8% in CY2017 (CY2016: 3.2%) and projects global growth to pickup to 3.9% in CY2018.
The Malaysian economy surpassed its growth expectation in CY2017. The economy expanded at a robust pace of 5.9% in CY2017(CY2016: 4.2%), surpassed the official forecast of between 5.2% to 5.7%. This was anchored by faster expansion in both private and public sector spending as well as rebound in exports as global demand strengthened. Bank Negara Malaysi (BNM) raised the CY2018 Malaysian economy growth projection to 5.5% - 6.0% (initial projection: 5.0%-5.5%), to be driven by private sector activity and favourable external demand on the back of continued expansion in the global technology upcycle and sustained global commodity prices.
The Manager expects a moderate growth in DPU for FY2018 despite the expected higher average cost of debt, supported by:
1) Sunway Pyramid Hotel operating with full rooms inventory following the full completion of its refurbishment in June 2017.
2) Moderate growth in the retail segment underpinned by Sunway Pyramid Shopping Mall.
3) New income contribution from the completed acquisitions of Sunway REIT Industrial – Shah Alam 1 and Sunway Clio Property.
4) Gradual improvement in the overall occupancy of the office segment due to low base effect.
Review of retail market:
The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research’s (MIER) Consumer Sentiment Index(CSI) inched higher to 91.0 points in 1QCY2018, the highest level since 4QCY2014. Although the CSI is below the optimistic threshold of 100-point, we are encouraged by the recovery in consumer sentiment albeit at a gradual pace.
Sunway Pyramid Shopping Mall has achieved close to full occupancy where the average occupancy rate inched higher to 99.1% for YTD 3QFY2018(YTD 2QFY2018: 98.4%). Based on the total net lettable are (NLA) of 651,428 sq.ft. which was due for renewal in FY2018, a total of 493,916 sq.ft. equivalent to 75.8% of total space due for renewal, was renewed or replaced at a single-digit rental reversion rate.
The acquisition of Sunway Clio Property consisting of a retail podium and a hotel tower was completed in February 2018. Sunway Clio Retail’s average occupancy rate stood at 58.3% for YTD 3QFY2018 compared to 43.2% for YTD 2QFY2018. The occupancy stood at 88.2% as at 31 March 2018. The lower average occupancy rate in the preceding year was due to progressive opening by tenants.
The average occupancy rate for Sunway Carnival Shopping Mall improved further from 96.2% for YTD 2QFY2018 to 97.0% for YTD 3QFY2018. Based on the total NLA of 149,787 sq.ft. which was due for renewal in FY2018, a total of 114,599 sq.ft. equivalent to 76.5% of total space due for renewal, was renewed or replaced at a single-digit rental reversion rate.
Sunway Putra Mall’s average occupancy rate improved marginally to 90.5% for YTD 3QFY201 (YTD 2QFY2018: 89.4%).
The Manager expects the retail segment to register a moderate growth for FY2018, underpinned by Sunway Pyramid Shopping Mall.
Review of hotel market:
The government strives on endeavours to boost tourism activities such as partnership with European Travel Agents and Tour Operators Association to promote Malaysia as a destination and increasing accessibility via various airlines partnership. These endeavours are paving the way ahead of Visit Malaysia Year 2020.
The average occupancy rate at Sunway Clio Hotel improved to 68.0% in 3QFY2018, from 58.7% during the corresponding period in the preceding year.
Sunway Putra Hotel’s average occupancy rate was stable at 67.8% in 3QFY2018 (3QFY2017: 67.0%). The occupancy was sustained by healthy demand from the corporate segment.
In Penang, the average occupancy rates of the hotels strengthened further. In 3QFY2018, the average occupancy rate of Sunway Hotel Seberang Jaya rose to 74.3% compared to 63.9% in 3QFY2017 as a result of strong demand from the corporate sector and Government groups during the quarter.
Meanwhile, Sunway Hotel George town has registered higher average occupancy rate of 91.1% in 3QFY2018, from 86.4% in 3QFY2017, as the hotel continued to enjoy stronger demand from the leisure segment in the current quarter.
The Manager expects a modest growth from the hotel segment, largely contributed by resumption of fullrooms inventory at Sunway Pyramid Hotel and new income contribution from Sunway Clio Hotel.
Review of office market:
The office segment improved marginally in CY2017 as higher takeup of office space had led to improved occupancy rate, according to the Valuation and Property Services Department. The national average occupancy rate for office sector increased from 82.3% in CY2016 to 83.3% in CY2017.
In Kuala Lumpur, Sunway Putra Tower enjoyed an improvement in the average occupancy rate due to commencement of new tenancies. The average occupancy rate for Sunway Putra Tower rose to 48.5% for YTD 3Q FY2018 versus 43.1% for YTD 2Q FY2018.
The Manager expects the performance of Sunway REIT’s office segment to improve marginally in FY2018 due to low base effect.
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James Ng
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