Gurus

The Illusion of Knowledge - Howard Marks

Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 09 Sep 2022, 10:45 AM

 

Howard Marks has long questioned the value of macro forecasts, but in his latest memo, he explains why creating profitable forecasts is so difficult. He discusses the incredible complexity involved in modeling an economy and makes it clear that forecasting mostly provides the illusion of knowledge. He argues that investors are better off accepting reality — that the macro future is largely unknowable — and focusing on what they can know.
 

 

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