AirAsia has announced the disposal of 25% stake (6,144,280 shares) in AAE Travel PTE. Ltd. To Expedia for consideration of US$86.25m (RM306m).
AirAsia is expected to report a gain of US$78.8m (RM279.m) from the disposal exercise, which will be recognized in 1Q15.
We do not expect material impact to AirAsia’s bottomline, given the existing 50% stake in AAE only contributed 2.24% and 3.96% to AirAsia’s core earnings in FY13 and 9M14, respectively. FY13 9M14 RMm RMm AAE Travel Pte Ltd Contribution 8.10 20.30 % of AirAsia’s core earnings 2.24% 3.96%
Based on our estimation, the disposal is transacted based on more than 60x PE, accounting for the potential strong future earnings growth of AAE.
We are relatively positive on the disposal, given the high valuation. Furthermore, AirAsia still maintains 25% stake in AAE, protecting its interest in the joint collaboration between AAE and AirAsia Group.
We remained positive on AirAsia given the potential recovery growth of air travel demand, less pressure on system yields, and the low jet fuel price environment.
Risks
World crisis (i.e. war, terrorism and epidemic outbreak); surge in jet fuel price; US$ appreciation; weak air travel demand; and high speed train infrastructure between Singapore and Pulau Pinang.
Forecasts
Unchanged
Rating
Buy
Positives
1) Sustaining lowest cost LCC operator in Asiawith largest network and strong brand name; 2) Low jet fuel price; 3) Increasing ancillary income; and 4) Routes rationalization of major competitor MAS.
Negatives
1) Higher cost of living faced by consumers(from GST implementation); and 2) Regional air-demand slowdown and political issues.
Valuation
Maintained BUY on AirAsia with unchanged target price of RM3.15 based on SOP as demand for air travel looks positive.
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