HLBank Research Highlights

AirAsia - Divestment of AAE Travel Pte. Ltd.

HLInvest
Publish date: Wed, 18 Feb 2015, 10:47 AM
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This blog publishes research reports from Hong Leong Investment Bank

Highlights/ Comments

  • AirAsia has announced the disposal of 25% stake (6,144,280 shares) in AAE Travel PTE. Ltd. To Expedia for consideration of US$86.25m (RM306m).
  • AirAsia is expected to report a gain of US$78.8m (RM279.m) from the disposal exercise, which will be recognized in 1Q15.
  • We do not expect material impact to AirAsia’s bottomline, given the existing 50% stake in AAE only contributed 2.24% and 3.96% to AirAsia’s core earnings in FY13 and 9M14, respectively. FY13 9M14 RMm RMm AAE Travel Pte Ltd Contribution 8.10 20.30 % of AirAsia’s core earnings 2.24% 3.96%
  • Based on our estimation, the disposal is transacted based on more than 60x PE, accounting for the potential strong future earnings growth of AAE.
  • We are relatively positive on the disposal, given the high valuation. Furthermore, AirAsia still maintains 25% stake in AAE, protecting its interest in the joint collaboration between AAE and AirAsia Group.
  • We remained positive on AirAsia given the potential recovery growth of air travel demand, less pressure on system yields, and the low jet fuel price environment.

Risks

  • World crisis (i.e. war, terrorism and epidemic outbreak); surge in jet fuel price; US$ appreciation; weak air travel demand; and high speed train infrastructure between Singapore and Pulau Pinang.

Forecasts

  • Unchanged

Rating

  • Buy

Positives

  • 1) Sustaining lowest cost LCC operator in Asiawith largest network and strong brand name; 2) Low jet fuel price; 3) Increasing ancillary income; and 4) Routes rationalization of major competitor MAS.

Negatives

  • 1) Higher cost of living faced by consumers(from GST implementation); and 2) Regional air-demand slowdown and political issues.

Valuation

  • Maintained BUY on AirAsia with unchanged target price of RM3.15 based on SOP as demand for air travel looks positive.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 18 Feb 2015

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