HLBank Research Highlights

Momentum Idea: Downtrend line breakout - IBHD (RM0.65/Vol:1.93m)

HLInvest
Publish date: Mon, 20 Apr 2015, 10:38 AM
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This blog publishes research reports from Hong Leong Investment Bank

  • Shah Alam crown jewel: IBhd’s major project i-City was originally conceived in 2005. The residential and commercial property developments have not really taken off until recent years whereby its maiden launches named i- Residences (RM65m) and i-SOVO (RM230m) achieved an overwhelming response in 2012 with close to 100% take-up rate. Today, i-City development occupies a 72-acre plot of freehold land in Section 7, Shah Alam. The project has evolved into a potential RM9bn ultrapolis with 13m sq ft of approved builtup space that is designed as an international business hub by day and lifestyle haven by night. As at current plans, utilization rates are as follows: residential (60%), commercial (30%) and mall (10%).
  • Property Development. With a RM9bn GDV encompassing more than 10 residential and commercial tower blocks, in addition to the numerous other components adding to its property investment portfolio, the Group has a strategic vision of attaining a steady state of RM500-600m revenue contribution in 3 years.
  • Property Investment. An integral part of this division will be the RM750m Central Plaza @ i-City, the first-of-its-kind regional shopping mall in the country which will be jointly-developed by the Central Pattana Group (CPN), Thailand‟s larges t retail developer and which will hold a 60% equity s take in the JV company (IBHD: 40%). Central Pattana Plc group has a successful and proven track record in developing and managing malls in a competitive and economically-volatile environment like Thailand.
  • IBHD is confident of a better 2015. In FY14 results review, Management is confident of a better 2015 performance. In 2015, the Group plans to launch both “8 Kia Peng” as well as the “Central Towers ” developments. “8 Kia Peng” is a luxurious services apartments development located within the vicinity of the Kuala Lumpur City Centre (“KLCC”) with an es timated GDV of RM882m while Central Towers is a RM1.2bn development comprising an office tower, two residential towers, the Double Tree by Hilton hotel, a convention centre and a performing arts centre. The hotel, convention centre, performing arts centre as well as the approximately 3,000 associated car parks in the Central Towers development will add to the Group Investment Property portfolio.
  • Undemanding valuations. IBHD is trading at 7.7x FY16 P/E based on fullydiluted EPS of 9.2sen. It is also trading at 38% discount to its latest BVPS of RM1.04 and 22% discount to its peers P/B of 0.79x. We think such steep discounts would have provided a sufficient margin of safety and cushion further share price decline.
  • Trending upward. IBHD’s share prices corrected 60% from a high of RM1.32 to a low of RM0.52 before ending at RM0.65 yesterday. As the stock had staged a breakout above the downtrend line resistance yesterday and has continued to stay above key 10-d/-20-d/30-d/50-d/100-d SMAs, we expect prices to rise further from here.
  • A decisive breakout above 0.685 (18 Mar high) will spur prices to retest RM0.705 (23.6% FR) before reaching our LT price target at RM0.76 (200-d SMA).
  • Critical supports are located at RM0.625 (100-d SMA and 20-w SMA) and 0.61 (lower Bollinger band). Cut loss at RM0.595.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 20 Apr 2015

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