Within Expectation: YoY, 1QFY16 core PATAMI stood at RM29.9m, making up 38.2% and 29.1% of our earnings and consensus estimates.
Deviations
While 1Q16 results appear to be strong, w e deem it w ithin our expectations as w e anticipate w eaker numbers for the rest of the year w ith completion of major fabrication projects and no signif icant replenishment to make up for the shortfall.
Highlights
1QFY16 revenue dipped 64.3% YoY as its major projects (Malikai & Besar) come to completion. This w as despite higher Marine revenue contribution YoY (+14%) on higher value for vessels repaired f rom LNG, FPSO, and FSU categories inclusive of settlement of carried forw ard projects in the current quarter. Therefore, overall core PATAMI decreased 17.1% YoY.
Mailkai TLP project has undergone successful cross-over in March and is currently on a barge undergoing sea-testing. Full completion of the project is expected to be in 3QFY16. Besar and NMB Bergading projects are close to completion at 87% and 97% respectively and w e expect completion of most of these projects by end of 2016.
The company is pursuing variation orders claims for Tapis and Malikai projects. None of the claims is recognised in the company’s numbers yet. Successful claim w ill help to boost earnings. We have not factored in any variation orders in our earnings forecast.
Latest orderbook stood at RM1.0bn, similar to the level seen in the preceding quarter w ith majority of backlog comprising of RAPID w orks. The group submitted RM1.8b w orth of tenders for 2016 out of total RM7.4b in potential tenders for year 2016-2017.
Focus w ould still be directed to RAPID prefabrication contracts w hich w ould be in smaller quantities (RM200-300m each) in view of challenging upstream outlook.
We believe the ability to secure local fabrication projects w ould be key positive catalyst i.e. Baram Delta Wellhead Platform & CPP packages rumoured to be aw arded later this year. Nevertheless, orderbook replenishment this year, in our opinion, w ould not be suf f icient to sustain the group’s revenue base.
The group’s Marine division is expected to remain busy f or the rest of the year w ith resilient demand for marine maintenance seen despite w eak industry activities. It is also contemplating an addition of 3rd dry dock to expansion its strong-performing Marine division.
Risks
Project execution risk and Orderbook replenishment risk.
Forecasts
Earnings estimates maintained.
Rating
SELL
Positives
Room to enhance yard capacity and capability. Net cash balance sheet.
Negatives
History of delivery delays and earnings disappointments. High contract replenishment risk due to oil price slump.
Valuation
Maintain Sell w ith unchanged TP of RM0.94 based on 0.6x BV due expectation of w eaker orderbook replenishment.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....