Palm oil stockpile declined further, by 3.0% MoM to 1.47m tonnes in Mar-22, as output recovery was more than offset by higher exports and domestic consumption, coupled with lower imports. Maintain 2022-24 CPO price assumptions of RM4,300/3,300/3,300 per tonne. We believe palm oil prices will remain at elevated levels (possibly until 1H22), supported by (i) weaker production outlook for corn and soybean in South America, and (ii) geopolitical tension, which will likely result in supply disruption in sunflower and rapeseed oils., as well as protracted fertiliser supply. As such, we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT stance on the sector. Top picks remain FGV (BUY; TP: RM2.43); IOI Corp (BUY; TP: RM5.09), KLK (BUY; TP: RM32.43) and Sime Darby Plantation (BUY; TP: RM5.95).

DATA HIGHLIGHTS

Stockpile continued to trend down. Palm oil stockpile remained on downtrend (for the fifth consecutive month), declining by 3.0% MoM to 1.47m tonnes in Mar-22, as output recovery was more than offset by higher exports and domestic consumption, coupled with lower imports. The stockpile came marginally lower than Bloomberg consensus median estimate of 1.49m tonnes.

Output rebounded… By 24.1% MoM to 1.41m tonnes in Mar-22, as output contribution from all key producing states recovered from seasonal factor. Cumulatively, CPO output inched up by 3.9% YoY to 3.8m tonnes in 1Q22, driven mainly by an output surge in Jan-22.

Exports rebounded too… By 14.1% MoM to 1.27m tonnes in Mar-22, due mainly to supply disruption on sunflower and rapeseed oils (arising from Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has in turn boosted demand for palm oil from India and EU, we believe), and seasonal factor (historically, China’s demand for palm oil usually picks up when winter season ends).

Exports for the first 10 days of Apr-22. Preliminary data from independent cargo surveyors Intertek and Amspec indicated that palm oil exports for the first 10 days of Apr-22 declined by 25.6-26.8% MoM, due mainly to lower demand from China, EU and Middle East.

HLIB’s VIEW

Forecast. Maintain 2022-24 CPO price assumptions of RM4,300/3,300/3,300 per tonne. We believe palm oil prices will remain at elevated levels (possibly until 1H22), supported by (i) weaker production outlook for corn and soybean in South America, and (ii) geopolitical tension, which will likely result in supply disruption in sunflower and rapeseed oils and protracted fertiliser supply (which may result in planters (in particular smallholders) reducing fertiliser application to oil palms, hence derailing the anticipated yield recovery. Over the longer term, we continue to believe that a pullback in CPO price will materialise when palm oil output recovers, which in turn hinges on the entrant of foreign workers into Malaysian shores. Based on our estimates, every RM100/mt raise in our CPO price projection will lift earnings forecasts for plantation stocks under our coverage by 3.5-15.0%.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We reiterate our OVERWEIGHT stance on the sector, underpinned by (i) high near term CPO prices (which will in turn translate to good near term earnings prospects), (ii) easing ESG concerns, and (iii) decent valuations. Top picks remain FGV (BUY; TP: RM2.43); IOI Corp (BUY; TP: RM5.09), KLK (BUY; TP: RM32.43) and Sime Darby Plantation (BUY; TP: RM5.95).

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 12 Apr 2022