Choppiness persists as markets await Fed’s verdict

Technical pick: KOSSAN

KLCI: 1652.15 (13.8)
DOW: 41622.08 (228.3)
MSCI Asia: 183.66 (0.6)
FCPO (RM): 3813 (-39)
BRENT (USD): 72.75 (1.14)
USDMYR: 4.3012 (-0.034)
SGDMYR: 3.32 (0.007)
EURMYR: 4.7738 (0.003)
AUDMYR: 2.8984 (0.011)
GBPMYR: 5.659 (0.009)
US: 10-yr yield (%) 3.6176 (-0.034)
BNM:10-yr yield (%) 3.745 (0.015)

Asia/US. Ahead of the major verdicts from the Fed (Sep 19), BOJ and PBOC (Sep 20), most Asian markets closed mixed as investors assessed downbeat economic data released over the weekend from China (i.e. industrial production, retail sales and unemployment rate), as well as holiday closures in several markets. In the run-up to the crucial FOMC meeting, the Dow notched a 228-pt gain to end at record high of 41,622, rotated to the economically sensitive sectors from the mega tech stocks amid growing bets that the Fed may deliver a larger 50 bps cut (62% vs 30% a week ago). This week, investors will be focused on the retail sales data (Sep 17), FOMC decision, housing starts and existing home sales (Sep 19) as potential market movers.

Malaysia. After sliding 22.1 pts over two days and 46 pts from a high of 1,684 (3 Sep) to intraday low at 1,638, KLCI rebounded to end +13.8 pts to 1,652.2 last Friday, mirroring gains in regional markets in anticipation of the long-anticipated Fed easing cycle this week. Market breadth turned positive for a 2nd day at 2.14 vs 1.9 previously while daily volume rose 9.2% to 2.84bn shares valued at RM2.74bn, led by a broad-based rebound in the small/midcap and ACE counters. After net selling RM225m in two days, foreign institutions continued their net buying to record its 5th weekly gains (+RM79m, Weekly: +RM218m, Sep: +RM1.01bn) while local retailers (-RM67m, Weekly: -RM221m, Sep: -RM59m) and local institutions (-RM12m, Weekly: +RM3m, Sep: -RM957m) emerged as major net sellers

Outlook Ahead of the key central banks’ meetings this week, KLCI should trade range bound (support: 1,629-1,638; resistance: 1,660-1,684) due to the lack of meaningful local rerating catalysts. 

Technically, KOSSAN is currently trending sideways near RM1.74 region. A successful breakout above RM2.00-2.07 (200M MA) bodes well for further rally towards RM2.16 (38.2% FR) and RM2.28 (50% FR) territory.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 17 Sept 2024