• Feb-21 Total Industry Volume (TIV) rose 30.3% mom to 42.8k units, following the easing of MCO 2.0 in certain states since 19 Feb 2021
• It was an especially robust month for Proton, Honda and Toyota which saw sales improve significantly, backed by new launches leading to an overall 4% yoy rise in Feb-21 TIV
• Riding on a promising recovery trend, we foresee improvement in subsequent months amid: i) an easing of lockdowns and ii) continued support from the sales tax exemption. Maintain sector NEUTRAL

Feb-21 TIV Rose 4% Yoy to 42.8k Units

Post a weak start in Jan-21, TIV for Feb-21 registered a promising growth to 42.8k units (+4.1% yoy), on the back of improvement across major marques such as Proton (+17.2%), Toyota (+24.2%) and Honda (>100%). On top of the easing of MCO 2.0 since 19 Feb 2021 for certain states, the yoy improvement was also attributed to deliveries of exciting launches, notably Proton X50 (Oct-20), Toyota Vios & Yaris (Dec-20), Toyota Fortuner & Innova (Feb-21) and Honda City (Oct-20). On a cumulative basis (Jan-Feb-21), though, unit sales remained lower at 75.6k units (-10% yoy), lagging from the impact of a sharp decline in Jan-21 due to MCO 2.0.

Stellar Month for Honda, Proton and Toyota

Feb-21 TIV rebounded strongly by 30.3% mom, partly as certain states lifted MCO 2.0 measures from 19 Feb 2021. Honda had a particularly strong month, registering 4.4k units (>100% mom / >100% yoy) spurred on by strong demand for the 5thgeneration Honda City, which we understand to have delivered close to 13k units as of end-Feb 2021 since its launch in Oct 2020. Meanwhile, Proton achieved 11.7k units in Feb-21 (+96% mom / +17% yoy) with its SUVs notching up 4.8k units – a historical monthly high in the local SUV segment, predominantly on robust demand for Proton X50. Lastly, Toyota posted 5.1k units (+24% mom / +32% yoy) benefitting from exciting launches toward end-20 (Vios and Yaris) and more recently in Feb-21 (Fortuner & Innova). All in all, the national carmakers strengthened their foothold on the local auto scene, with overall market share rising to 67.6% (vs 2M20: 65.3%).

Maintain NEUTRAL

Tracking the promising recovery trajectory in Feb-21, we foresee the improvement to continue in subsequent months, premised on: i) an easing of lockdown measures and ii) continued support from the sales tax exemption until June-21. We remain Neutral on the sector with our 2021 TIV forecast unchanged at 580k (+9.5% yoy) – below that in 2019 to account for the lingering pandemic impact. At this juncture, we have BUY calls for UMW and Bermaz Auto. Up/downside risks: i) loosening/tightening of auto financing for car buyers; ii) fluctuation of RM vs US$/JPY; and iii) a greater-than-expected pick-up/slowdown in the economy.

Source: Affin Hwang Research - 25 Mar 2021