Ice Milk Investment
《牛奶冰》如何设定投资的套利或卖出点 （2）
icemilkinvestment
Publish date: Fri, 31 Mar 2017, 09:32 PM
icemilkinvestment
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提倡基本面与技术面的结合，秉持着中长期投资的理念操作股票，同时也少不了短期的投机分析。本页分享各种理财工具与投资心得，以协助每一位达到财务自由为最终目标。
上回我们分享了如何使用基本面技巧来设定适当的套利或卖出点(可以点击这里阅读)，这回我们将分享一个简单又容易明白的技术面指标来找出卖出点。而这个指标其实很多人都知道，可是却可能太简单而常常被忽略它的实用性，
这个技术指标就是移动平均线(Moving Average)。
这个技术指标就是移动平均线(Moving Average)。
移动平均线简单来说就是将特定天数的闭市价算出平均数，再把这些平均数连成一线，这工具的主要功能就是追踪趋势，让投资者能够凭借这条线来判断和预测当前市场的行情。
理论上移动平均线也分为短期、中期和长期，有些使用者还分为超短期或超长期。这里我只以三种时段做解释：短期线可以设为20天，中期可以设为50天，长期可以设为200天。当这些线穿越了比自己更长期的线时，我们称之为死亡交叉，也就是卖出或套利的信号。先声明无论是什么期，还是多少天，都是因人而异，最重要是能够配合到自己的投资策略。话不多说，先讲个例子：
Boilerm 股价在13和14年涨了4倍，红线是20天短线，深蓝色50天是中线，浅蓝色200天是长线，短线跌穿中线的那刻可以执行部分套利，而中线穿过长线时可以考虑全数套利。那就可以避开资金被套牢整整两年的时间，盈利也能收进口袋。这就是移动平均线提示上升趋势可能将转变的信号。
还记得前两年非常风光的美金股吗？随着美元兑马币从2014年尾的3.2升值至4.4，那些赚美元的出口股股价也一路上涨翻好几倍。我们下面就用这些美金股作为题材，大家就自己看图说故事吧：
Canone
Evergreen
Flbhd
Hevea
Topglove
从上面的几家公司经过暴涨后跌穿移动平均线，这就是提示我们应该套利离场的信号，等待适当的时机再进场。
本期总结：所谓股票投资要低买高卖，往往我们虽然成功买在低点，但赚了20%就以为是高点急急套利了，最后这只股翻倍了才暗锤自己。而移动平均线虽然不能让我们卖在最高点，但能提醒我们一个上升趋势开始转变了，需适时的套利避免资金长期被套牢，因为我们可以使用这笔资金来买入更值得持有的上升股。或许移动平均线不一定每次都能给予正确的信号（假信号），但却能大幅度的减低我们资金被套牢的机会。
股谚云：“会买的是徒弟，会卖的是师傅”
这两期的分享我们了解了简单的基本面和技术面套利法，下回我们将分享什么时候应该继续持股以及怎样结合使用，同时偷偷透露我的伙伴在秘密研究着一家公司，尽请继续关注我们以获得更多资讯。
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 12 of 12 comments
u can see these MA intersecting only when u look back... u can't see when it's intersecting in the future... go find some graph that can predict the future here and proof m wrong... thx
2017-04-01 11:10
Hi SC,
Yes you are right, MA sell signal is confirmed when there was a intersection between each other, we can't predict for future or timing when it will going to intersect each other.
That's why I mentioned MA can't help us to sell at the highest point, it just give us a signal that the trend might be changed. We could take action after few candles of MA intersection point.
Thanks for your comment :)
2017-04-01 12:07
Thank you. Your article is so easy to understand and is extremely useful for newbies. Please continue to write more for the benefits of all.
2017-04-01 13:16
When intersection happened, it may be too late to sell! I noticed the price was always at the lowest side.
2017-04-01 15:49
Hi nokenzo,
Yes, this is one of the disadvantage of MA.
Actually what I want to share is the concept and function of MA to determine exit point.
The period I choose here 20,50,200 are very common to use, trader can fine tune the period to match their trading strategy.
If want to be more sensitive, trader can choose 10MA cross 50MA as exit point, Or even can exit when the candle crossed the MA.
Sometimes MA might be too late to trigger sell, but in other view it also prevent us to sell too early in bullish uptrend.
Thanks for your comment :)
2017-04-01 16:35
hi icemilkinvestment, can go check out ARMADA using TA? is that mean its going to break out? as MA50 crossing MA200... thanks
2017-04-04 23:42
Hi SC, yes Armada MA50 had crossed MA200, today also succeed breakout nearest resistance, short term still forming higher high and momentum still there.
2017-04-05 21:57
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2017-03-31 21:43