Period   1Q12

1Q12 net loss of RM2.9m came in far below our expectations as opposed to our and consensus full year net profit estimate of RM35.0m and RM37.9m respectively. 

Dividends  Declared a first interim single-tier dividend of 14.64 sen that will go ex on 8^th Jun 2012. 

YoY, revenue plunged by 40% to RM44.1m, mainly due to the lower new student enrolment coupled with the reduction in tuition fee. The lower diploma tuition fee (from RM50k to RM40k) was mainly to cater to the changes in the PTPTN loan scheme from a maximum RM60k to RM45k for its diploma students since June 2011. Also, the increase in the minimum entry requirement for the diploma nursing programmes from 3 credits to 5 credits since last year has also increase the pressure in attracting new students. Note that  diploma students account for around 95% of the group's total student population.

On top of that, the new MQA (Malaysian Qualification Agency) has raised the teaching staff to students ratio to 1:20 (vs 1:30 previously) thus leading to a higher staff cost during the quarter. With the lower sales coupled with the higher staff as well as depreciation costs, MEGB turned in a net loss of RM2.9m in 1Q12.

QoQ, revenue was lower by 11% while the NP was in the red due to the reasons above. Margin-wise, MEGB recorded a lower EBITDA margin of 3.7% (vs 40.1% in 1Q11) as a result of a higher fee reduction (-20%) on diploma programmes during the quarter.

Outlook  Remains challenging due to unfavourable government policies.

Forecasts  Post-results, we have cut our FY12-FY13E net profit by 83%-87% to RM6.3m-4.5m after lowering 1) FY12 and FY13 number of students population to 10k and 9k (vs. 12k and 11.6k previously and 2) higher fixed and operating costs. 

Rating  Ceased coverage

The stock is currently trading at very high FY12'FY13E PERs of 66.8x'91.8x. In view of the unfavourable government policies coupled with the higher fixed and operating costs, we do not expect MEGB to perform in the foreseeable future. Hence, we are ceasing coverage on the stock for now until more favourable developments for the company come up again. Our last TP was set at RM0.94.

Source: Kenanga