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Kian Joo Can Factory - OUTPERFORM - 27 June 2012

kiasutrader
Publish date: Wed, 27 Jun 2012, 05:36 PM

A brand-new Kian Joo could potentially steal the limelight in the current lacklustre market. This is following the entry of the two new directors from Can-One into its board, which we believe could spark a new fresh outlook and add strength to the direction of the company. Moreover, we believe that the company's downside risk should be supported by 6%-7% net dividend yield. Including the potential capital appreciation, we are looking at a high total return of 31% for the stock and thus it is likely to stage a re-rating. Hence, we select Kian Joo as our 3Q2012 top pick for consumer F&B sub-sector. With its sound fundamentals and vision of expanding into overseas market, we believe Kian Joo would likely maintain its strong earnings of 16%-14% growth for FY12-FY13E. We peg a new fair value of RM2.50 for the company (RM2.19 previously) after rolling over our valuation basis to FY13. Our TP is based on an unchanged PER of 8x. 

A brand-new Kian Joo?Following the exit of Dato' See Teow Chuan, the new entry of two directors from Can-One into Kian Joo's board could potentially reinforce the outlook and direction of  the company. One of the new directors ' Yeoh Jin Hoe was the founder of several well-known companies involved in the manufacturing sector, including Kaiserkorp Group (manufacturer and distributor of King Koil mattresses), Agrow (M) (building materials supplier) and Ibufood Corporation (local  food producer with the well-known IBUMIE brand). We believe the two new directors will add value to the group's current strength. 

Bonus and right issues? We understand that the proposed bonus issue and proposed renounceable rights issue of warrants are now only pending the approval of Bursa Malaysia as Can-One's management is already now on the board together and holds the majority shareholdings. In our view, this is in favour of Kian Joo's shareholders as the implementation of the exercise will allow a greater flow of liquidity for the stock with the potentials for higher capital appreciation. With the company now likely seeing the end of its shareholders tussle, the market is likely to re-rate its valuation upwards.  

Higher dividend yield than the market.  Kian Joo has been consistently distributing about 50% payout in the past five years except for 2008 (when it only paid out 40%). Going forward, we are expecting similar payouts with 13.7 sen and 15.6 sen dividends for FY12-13, which translate into good net dividend yields of 6.8%-7.7%. This will support the downside risk of the company as investors will receive at least around a 7% yield in return, which is much higher than the net dividend yield for FBMKLCI and KL Consumer Index' of 2.7%-2.9%. 

31% total return.Kian Joo is trading at a Fwd PER of 7x, which is lower than its 5-year average PER of 8x. Given its ability to further improve its production and operational efficiency to continue to deliver organic growth and expansion to regional markets, including its existing operations in Vietnam as well as potential expansions to Indonesia and Myanmar, Kian Joo is certainly a fundamentally sound company with a 5-year net profit CAGR of 29% driven by the increasing volumes from the aluminium cans and corrugated carton divisions. As such, while we  are maintaining our earnings forecasts and also retaining our OUTPERFORM call on Kian Joo with a higher TP of RM2.50 (from RM2.19 previously) after rolling over our valuation basis to FY13. Our target price is based on unchanged PER of 8x. The stock offers a very attractive total return of 31% from the current level and it is also poised to stage a re-rating soon, in our view.  

Source: Kenanga
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