AEON Credit is scheduled to release its 2QFY13 results tomorrow. We foresee no major surprises and expect its 1HFY13 net profit to be largely in line with our full-year  forecast  for  RM126.5m.  As  we  expect  better  consumer  sentiment  to  spur improvements across all loan segments, we are revising higher our FY13-FY14 netprofit forecasts by 5.6% and 6.5% respectively. We are also keeping an eye on its asset  quality,  although  it  remains  fairly  resilient.  Maintain  NEUTRAL,  with  FVraised to RM11.47 from RM10.70, based on a 11x forward 12-month EPS.

Lifting  forecasts.  We  are  raising  our  net  profit  forecasts  by  5.6%  and  6.5%  for  FY13 and  FY14  respectively  due  to:  i)  expectations  that  increased  fee  income  will  offset  the expected  marginal  NIMs  compression,  and  ii)  reviving  consumer  sentiment,  which  will drive growth across all loan segments.

Asset  management  improving.  As  we  stated  in  our  previous  update,  AEON  Credit's asset  quality  is  resilient,  thanks  to  prudent  risk  management  as  well  as  the  lower concentration  risk  emanating  from  the  company's  smaller  average  loan  size.  Our forecast  for  the  company's  full-year  non-performing  loans  (NPLs)  ratio  is  1.8%. However,  with  about  1.8%  of  its  FY12  receivables  being  renegotiated  or  restructured loans,  we  believe  that  it  is  prudent  to  closely  monitor  the  potential  relapse  rate  of  its restructured  portfolio  especially  in  periods  of  economic  uncertainty.  Assuming  a  100% relapse  rate,  the  total  NPL  ratio  for  FY12  would  have  come  in  at  3.6%.  We  remain vigilant on this but would like to point out that the company's loan loss coverage is more than  sufficient  to  cover  even  a  hypothetical  100%  NPL  relapse  rate  on  its  restructured loan portfolio. Furthermore, we expect its asset quality to show continuous improvement moving forward.

Fee  income  to  cushion  shrinking  NIMs. We think  there will  be some compression  in net  interest margins  (NIMs)  due  to  increasing competition  from  bank-backed  and  other micro-financing  institutions.  However,  we  believe  that  there  may  be  potential  upside  in fee  income,  which  will  mitigate  any  downward  pressure  in  NIMs.  This  will  give  AEON Credit some breathing space to diversify its income base.

Maintain  NEUTRAL.  We  are  pegging  our  FV  of  RM11.47  at  a  11x  forward  12-month EPS  (previously  at  10x  forward  EPS).  Our  forward  PER  assumption  is  based  on  a discount on the 17.1x forward PER of its parent company, Aeon Credit Service Co Ltd. Accordingly, our FV moves up to RM11.47 from RM10.70 previously. Note that this FV is ex-bonus.  We  will  continue  to  monitor  AEON  Credit's  asset  quality  and  sustainability versus its loans growth.

CLOSER SCRUTINY ON ASSET MANAGEMENT

Asset  management  generally  improving.  As  we  stated  in  our  previous  update  on  AEON  Credit,  the company's  asset  quality  management  has  been  improving  owing  to  prudent  risk  management  and  a  lower concentration  risk  emanating  from  the company's smaller  loan  sizes.  Customers  with  loans  approved  by AEON Credit are deemed to have ample credit discipline under the company's credit scoring review. Its non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio translates into a full year forecast of 1.8%, which was computed based on the AEON Credit's credit risk portfolio.

So what is the actual NPL ratio? We note that a portion of AEON Credit's receivables are renegotiated, and these amounted to RM23.1m and RM27.5m for FY11 and FY12 respectively. These loans were restructured by  way  of  extension  of  payment  duration,  modification  or  payment  deferral.  Although  these  loans  are  not technically  delinquent,  they  were  likely  to  have  become  non-performing  had  they  not  been  renegotiated. These renegotiated loans account for 1.8%-2.2% of the group's total receivables. Moreover, given that small-scale  lenders  like  AEON  Credit  typically  have  a  higher  proportion  of  non-collateralized  lending  in  their  loan portfolios, their NPL risk could heighten during economic downturns. Assuming a 100% relapse ratio on the renegotiated receivables, the company's total impairment loss ratios for FY11 and FY12 would have come in
at 3.9% and 3.6% respectively. Despite its rising NPL ratios taking into account these renegotiated loans, we  note  that  there  has  been  overall  improvements,  as  seen  in  the  300bps  decline  in  the  ratio  in  the  past  two financial  years.  We  will  continue  to  monitor  the  company's  NPLs,  especially  those  relating  to  non-collateralized personal financing receivables.

Loan loss coverage still healthy. Also, we note that AEON Credit has been consistently allocating healthy pre-emptive  allowances  for  doubtful  debts,  with  its  current  loans  loss  coverage  at  ~190%.  Even  taking  into account  a  100%  NPL  relapse  rate  on  the  portion  of  receivables  under  renegotiation  or  restructuring  status, loan  loss  coverage  would  remain  within  the  high  ~105%  level.  Due  to  its  prudent  risk  management,  the company  has  been  consistently  recovering  increasing  amounts  of  bad  debts  since  FY08.  We  expect management to maintain this level of loan loss coverage moving forward.

Gearing and RWCR likely to stay at current levels. We note that AEON Credit's gearing ratio inched up by almost  300bps  to  3.23x  in  FY12,  although  it  was  still  within  management's  policy  of  maintaining  a  debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio of between 3.0x and 5.0x. Despite the aggressive loans growth, we think that the gearing ratio  is  likely  to  be  maintained  at  the  current  ~3.3x  level  given  the strong upside  in  profits,  and  the  fact  that AEON Credit can afford to  lower its 37% dividend payout to channel more into retained earnings. However, we remain cautious on the gearing ratio as it is on a high side compared to some of its peers, namely RCE Capital's 0.89x and MBf Holdings' 1.15x, according to their last reported financials tracked by Bloomberg.

Based on the same forecast, AEON Credit's risk-weighted capital ratio (RWCR) is also likely to be maintained at the current ~23%, at least in the near- to mid-term, but may face a downward pressure towards the  16% capital adequacy ratio required by regulations after FY15.

PROFITABILITY UPSIDE 
 
LT borrowings still the focus but funding costs remain affordable. Management's strategy is to maintain a high long-term (LT) borrowing ratio of >70%. Given that the company's LT borrowings ratio  went up to as high  as  83.2%  in  1QFY13  (vs  79.3% in  FY12),  we  believe  that  AEON Credit  is  likely  to maintain a  LT  debt ratio of above 78%, funded mainly via the issuance of term loans and medium-term notes (MTN). Moreover, this move will benefit from any potential upside in longer term yield. We maintain our cost of funding forecasts for FY13 and FY14 at around a slightly higher 4.3%. 

Competition  crimps  NIMs  but  cushioned  by  fee  income.  We  foresee  compression  in  NIMs  due  to increasing competition from bank-backed institutions in credit cards and micro-financing to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), as well as an uptick in funding costs. However, we think there could be potential upside in  fee  income  to  mitigate  any  downward  pressure  on  NIMs,  which  will  be  positive  for  AEON  Credit  in diversifying its income base.

Reviving consumer sentiment to fuel earnings growth. We foresee better q-o-q growth in all segments for 2QFY13  due  to  reviving  consumer  sentiment.  We  also  expect  personal  financing  to  continue  to  grow aggressively due to its low base in FY10, as well as upside from i) used car financing (MEP), if AEON Credit successfully leverages on its network of >900 dealers partnership (out of a total of 5,000 dealers nationwide), ii) general easy payment (GEP), depending on the response of the small businesses to the niche, small-ticket loans  for  the  purchase  of  equipment  and  machinery,  and  iii)  slight  upside  in  credit  cards  segment  as  its platinum credit cards are only expected to be rolled out by 2HFY13. However, we think the company should ride on the improvement in value of industry-wide purchases by credit cards in Malaysia, which has risen from RM42.8m in 1HFY11 to RM45.6m in 1HFY12, according to BNM figures.

VALUATIONS REVISION

Lifting  net  profit  estimates. We  are  revising  upward  our  net  profit  forecasts  by  5.6%  and  6.5%  for  FY13 and  FY14  respectively.  This  is  premised  on:  i)  a  higher  forecast  for  AEON  Credit's  fee  income,  which  will offset the expected marginal dip in NIMs, and ii) improving consumer sentiment, which will propel growth in all loan segments. Our interest coverage is expected to be consistent with FY12's ratio of 4.0x,  while those for FY13 and FY14 are  forecast at 3.8x and 3.9x respectively. We also see higher depreciation charges of RM11m-RM13m in view of the higher value of fixed assets attained in FY11 and FY12 totaling RM12m.

Valuation at current price.  AEON Credit is currently trading at  12.2x FY13 earnings and 3.6x FY13 PBV. The  stock  has  appreciated  by  some  350.4%  since  its  listing  in  2007,  outperforming  its  parent  and  sister companies listed in Japan, Thailand and Hong Kong. We believe that it is the best performing stock among the four due to its earnings growth consistency as well as superior ROE and ROA.

Maintain  NEUTRAL.  We  believe  there  is  more  upside  potential  given  the company's superior  earnings growth,  ROE  and  ROA  compared  to  its  parent  and  sister  companies.  As  such,  we  are  pegging  our  FV  of RM11.47 at a marginally higher 11x forward 12-month EPS (previously 10x). Our assumptions are based on the  17.1x  FY13f  PER  of  parent  company  Aeon  Credit  Service  Co  Ltd,  with  a  discount  on  loss  of  control (DLOC). We will continue to monitor AEON Credit's asset quality and sustainability against its loans growth.

Dividend payout forecasts stays at ~37%. Management has reaffirmed its minimum 30% dividend payout policy.  As  we  believe  AEON  Credit  may  possibly  provide  surprises  on  our  earnings  estimates,  we  believe there is less likelihood of it compromising on its dividend policy in the near term. We maintain our forecasts for a dividend payout of 37%, which is consistent with the company's historical net payout ratios.

Source: OSK