Axiata's relatively good 3Q/9MFY12 numbers trounced its low-ball KPIs and outperformed consensus estimates by 7% when annualized. Celcom posted record EBITDA while Dialog and Robi saw solid operational gains in 3Q12. As expected, Indonesia's interconnect ruling crimped group margins q-o-q. We are lifting our FY12/FY13 forecasts for Celcom and including higher capex for FY12, as re-guided by management. Our FY12/FY13 estimates as a whole are adjusted by -1% to +3%. As the stock has retreated by some 14% from its high in earlyOctober, we see this as a good time to re-enter. Upgrade to BUY from NEUTRAL, at a revised RM6.62 FV. Axiata returns as our preferred pick for regional telecoms. exposure.
Another fulfilling quarter. Axiata' 3QFY12 results reflected the solid execution across most OpCos in highly competitive markets. Overall group revenue and EBITDA growth of 9% and 5% for 9MFY12 trumped its relatively conservative KPI targets of 5.3% and 1.8% respectively for the second straight quarter. Against our revenue and EBITDA growth projections of 7.2% and 4.5% for FY12, it would seem that our assumptions are achievable. We deem the overall results in line with our forecast but above the market's.
Mixed showing from OpCos. Key operational highlights in 3QFY12 were: i) core EBITDA margins improved across most OpCos, except XL which contributed a -1.5% margin impact on the group from the SMS interconnect ruling in June (XL was a slight outpayer of SMS), and ii) the solid double-digit y-o-y revenue expansion for Dialog and Robi. Dialog posted core PATAMI growth of 6% q-o-q as EBITDA expanded 5% while Robi's core earnings (stripping out the SIM tax impact) more than doubled q-o-q alongside a 8% q-o-q subs growth. The group's core EBITDA was flat q-o-q, with a 43% margin for 9MFY12.
Celcom rules. Celcom continued to perform well with revenue and EBITDA up 8% y-o-y and 2% q-o-q, outflanking Maxis and Digi. This reaffirms the success of its customer segmentation strategy in Malaysia, a major marketing lynchpin. After coming behind Maxis and Digi for the past five years, it has since claimed the top spot in the youth segment and continues to make inroads into the mid-urban and suburban areas.
XL to dictate capex for 2013. Axiata said group capex intensity for FY13 hinges on spending at XL, which in turn, is a function of data productivity and demand in Indonesia. Given the strong pick-up in data adoption, XL has upped its capex guidance for FY12 to IDR9trn-IDR10trn (vs IDR7trn-IDR8trn previously) after front-loading some of its FY13 capex. The higher capex for XL has contributed to the RM0.6bn increase in FY12 capex guidance to RM5bn, implying a further RM1.5bn in spending in 4Q12 (the bulk of this from XL).
OTHER HIGHLIGHTS
Hints of capital management. With the rapid build-up in FCF and the group's commanding cash board of over RM8bn, we think a more aggressive management of its capital will come sooner than later. Axiata has maintained its progressive dividend outlook, in keeping with its 65% dividend payout ratio. We have maintained our DPS assumptions.
Limited scope for M&As. Axiata views its M&A prospects as low, alluding to the intense pursuit for mobile licenses in Myanmar, a market where firm interests have been lodged by more than 10 telcos. We gather from management that at least five major operators are competing aggressively in the pre-bidding process. Axiata said that industry consolidation in Cambodia is ongoing with weaker operators being weeded out, merged or ceased operations.