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Tasco Bhd - Below Forecasts

kiasutrader
Publish date: Fri, 22 Feb 2013, 10:20 AM

Tasco's FY12 earnings of  RM28.9m were softer than  expected,  accounting  for  only 81.4% of our projections. We believe the lacklustre performance was mainly due to the  sluggish  global  economy,  which  affected  export  volume.  FY13  would  still  be  a challenging year for Tasco due to the weak global macroconomic outlook as well as the domestic political uncertainty. We are lowering Tasco's FY13f earnings to derive a new RM2.10 FV based on 7x FY13 PER. Downgrade to NEUTRAL.   
 
Below  expectations.  Tasco's FY12 earnings of RM29.0m were  below  our  and  street estimates.  The  FY12  revenue  of  RM442.4m  represented  a  5.7%  drop  from  FY11.  Its international  Business  Solutions  (IBS)  unit  posted  a  14%,  or  RM26.8m,  drop  in  revenue while  its  Domestic  Business  Solutions  (DBS)  unit  managed  to  maintain  revenue  at  the FY11 level of RM276m. Other key highlights are:
  • On a YTD basis, revenue from Contract Logistics, its largest revenue contributor,contracted by 5.1% y-o-y due to a weaker performance in its customs clearance and warehouse business segment.

  • Its  International  Air  Freight  division  recorded  a  18.3%  y-o-y  decline  in  revenuedue  to  lower  export  shipments  by  major  customers  in  the  manufacturing  sector amidst a gloomy global economic outlook.

  • Nevertheless,  the  group's  International  Sea  Freight  and  Domestic  Truckingdivisions  still  managed  to  achieve  7.8%  y-o-y  and  15.7%  y-o-y  growth respectively,  which  somewhat  mitigated  the  impact  from  the  decline  in  the Contract Logistics and International Air Freight divisions.

Downgrade  to  NEUTRAL,  with  RM2.10  FV.  The  challenging  environment  facing  Tasco prompts us to trim our FY13F earnings estimate by 17% to arrive at a lower FV of RM2.10, based  on  a  7x  FY13  PER.  As  our  FV  provides  a  less  than 10%  potential  upside,  we  are downgrading Tasco to NEUTRAL.
Source: OSK
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