Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 11 Jul 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 11 Jul 2013, 09:48 AM

Asia 

Thailand Holds Rate As Baht Retreat Reduces Pressure To Ease. Thailand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as the baht’s retreat from an almost 16-year high damps pressure for further monetary easing and allows policy makers to guard against growing household debt. The Bank of Thailand maintained its one-day bond repurchase rate at 2.5 %, with monetary policy committee members voting unanimously to hold, it said in Bangkok today. Seventeen of 18 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the decision, while one expected a reduction to 2.25 %. (Bloomberg)

China Reports Weaker Than Expected Trade Data. China has reported an unexpected fall in its exports and imports, adding to concerns of a slowdown in its economy. Exports fell 3.1% in June from a year earlier, indicating weak global demand for Chinese goods. Most analysts had expected a 4% increase in shipments. Imports fell 0.7% from a year ago, showing a subdued domestic demand. (BBC)

China June Car Sales Up 11.2%. Vehicle sales in China rose 11.2% in June from a year earlier, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said yesterday. That compares with a  9.8% year-on-year gain in May. In June, carmakers shipped 1.75 million passenger cars, trucks and buses to dealerships in China. For the first half, vehicle sales rose 12.3% to 10.78 million. (Reuters)

 

USA

Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Drop As U.S. Sales Surge. Inventories at U.S. wholesalers unexpectedly declined in May by the most since September 2011 as sales surged, pointing to a pickup in orders and production. The 0.5 % decrease in stockpiles followed a 0.1 % drop in April that was initially reported as a gain, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.3 % increase. Sales jumped 1.6 %, the most since November. (Bloomberg)

Fed Minutes Suggest No Immediate End To QE Stimulus. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting say officials want more evidence of recovery in the jobs market before winding up its stimulus program. The minutes show that "about half" of the Fed's board felt the $85bn-a-month stimulus program could be phased out by the end 2013. Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke underlined his position on Wednesday during a question and answer session at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He said that given the current unemployment rate in the US and cutbacks in government spending "highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable futures is what is needed for the US economy." (BBC)

 

Europe

EU Unveils Bank-Crisis Plan With 55 Billion-Euro Fund. The European Union’s executive arm proposed procedures for handling failing banks with a 55 billion-euro ($70 billion)  backstop, setting up a showdown with Germany over control of taxpayers’ cash. Michel Barnier, the EU’s financial-services chief, unveiled the plan today for a single resolution mechanism that gives the European Commission in Brussels the power to decide when banks need to be saved or shut, potentially resulting in the use of public funds. Germany has warned this may violate the EU’s basic  laws by usurping national control over finances. The plan, intended to complement the European Central Bank’s oversight of euro-area lenders, includes a common resolution fund financed by levies on banks. The fund would be able to tap markets, backed by the assets of the banks it covers. (Bloomberg)

Ratings Agency Moody's Upgrades UK Banking Sector Outlook. Credit ratings agency Moody's has upgraded its outlook for the UK banking industry to stable from negative. It said the change reflected the country's increasingly stable economic outlook, despite low growth prospects. "Unemployment has not increased as much as in previous recessions, thereby contributing to a stabilisation in banks' asset quality," the statement said. Moody's expects profitability to recover from current low levels. (BBC)

French Industrial Output Declines Less Than Forecast. French industrial production fell less than economists forecast in May and Italian output rose in what European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer called “encouraging signs” of recovery. French production declined 0.4 % after a 2.2 % surge in April, national statistics office Insee said in Paris today. Economists forecast a 0.8 % decrease, according to the median of 21 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Italian output rose for the first time since January. (Bloomberg)

Italy’s Industrial Output Rises Less Than Forecast  In May. Italian industrial output rose less than expected in May, indicating the country is struggling to emerge from its longest recession in more than two decades. Production rose 0.1 % from April, when it fell 0.3 %, national statistics office Istat said in Rome today. Economists had forecast output to rise 0.3 %, according to the median of 11 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Drops Below 100 Yen After Bernanke Talks. The U.S. dollar remained lower Wednesday, extending losses after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting offered no clues on when the central bank is likely to begin scaling back its extraordinary monetary stimulus efforts and Fed chief Ben Bernanke said the central bank wouldn’t be in a hurry to raise rates when the jobless rate falls to its 6.5% target. The dollar fell hard versus the Japanese yen on Bernanke’s remarks, dropping back below the 100-yen level to trade at ¥99.71, down from ¥101.05 in North American trade late Tuesday. The ICE dollar index traded at 84.027 versus 84.598 in North American trade late Tuesday. The euro regained ground lost versus the dollar a day earlier, when it fell to a three- month low. The shared currency fetched $1.2964, up sharply from $1.2781 late Tuesday in North America and $1.2851 ahead of the Fed minutes. The pound on Wednesday was higher, trading at $1.4919, up from $1.4861. The Australian dollar trimmed an earlier loss to trade at 91.70 U.S. cents, down from 91.80 U.S. cents. (Market Watch) 

 

Commodities

Brent Slips Towards $107 On Concerns Of Weakness In China Economy. Brent crude slipped towards $107 on Wednesday on concerns about weakness in the recovery of China, the world's second biggest oil consumer, while U.S. crude turned higher after data showed a bigger-than-expected fall in crude oil stocks. Brent crude futures slipped 2 cents to $107.79 a barrel by 0322 GMT, slipping from a session high of $108.12 after the bearish China data. U.S. crude oil gained 82 cents to $104.35 a barrel, after earlier hitting a fresh 14-month high of $104.79. (Reuters)

Gold Rises On Fed Stimulus Extension Hopes. Gold ended slightly higher in choppy trade on Wednesday after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed many officials wanted more reassurance the job market was on solid ground before withdrawing economic stimulus. Spot gold was up 0.3 % to $1,252.63 an ounce by 3:47 PM EDT (1947 GMT), having set a one-week high of $1,265.01. Among other precious metals, silver edged down 0.4 % to $19.15 an ounce. Platinum eased 0.2 % to $1,361.24 an ounce and palladium climbed 2 % to a three-week high of $710.25, having earlier hit a three-week high at $713 an ounce. (Reuters)

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