Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 18 July 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 18 Jul 2013, 09:59 AM

Asia 

Singapore Exports In Longest Slump Since Global Crisis. Singapore’s exports in June extended the longest run of declines since the global financial crisis, suggesting economic growth last quarter may have been less than the government initially estimated. Non-oil domestic exports slid 8.8 % from a year earlier, falling for a fifth month, the trade promotion agency said in a statement today. The median of 17 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 5.8 % drop. (Bloomberg)

FDI Into China Climbs In First Half. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China rose 4.9% year-on-year during the first half of 2013, official data showed Wednesday, despite slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy. Outbound investment from China leapt 29.0% to US$45.6bil, the commerce ministry announced, with major increases in the crucial US and Australian markets. Incoming FDI, which excludes financial sectors, increased to US$62.0bil from January through June, the ministry said. For June itself, it rose 20.1% year-on-year to US$14.4 billion. “Investment from Japan, the EU and US maintained rather rapid growth,” ministry spokesman Shen Danyang told reporters. (AFP)

China Won’t Have Large Stimulus This Year, Finance Minister Says. Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said the nation won’t use “large-scale fiscal stimulus” measures this year, adding to signals that the government will tolerate  a slowdown in the economy. China will promote growth and boost employment while fine-tuning policies and keeping the fiscal deficit unchanged, and will also avoid big adjustments to short-term macroeconomic policies, Lou said in July 11 comments in meetings with U.S. officials in Washington. The remarks were posted yesterday on the Finance Ministry’s website. (Bloomberg)

India Eases Foreign Investment Rules To Boost Growth. India has further eased rules on foreign direct investment in a range of industries in an attempt to support the sliding currency and boost growth. Senior cabinet ministers and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh approved the plans at a meeting late on Tuesday. The move will allow 100% foreign ownership in the telecommunications industry, up from 74% at the moment. The reforms still need clearance from the full cabinet. (BBC)

 

USA

Bernanke Tells Congress Fed Flexible On Bond Buying.  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank still expects to start scaling back its massive bond purchase program later this year, but he left open the option of changing that plan if the economic outlook shifted. While sticking closely to a timeline to wind down the bond buying that he first outlined last month, Bernanke went out of his way to stress that nothing was set in stone. "Indeed, if needed, the (Fed's policy) committee would be prepared to employ all its tools, including an increase (in) the pace of purchases for a time, to promote a return to maximum employment in a context of price stability," Bernanke said. (Reuters)

Decrease In Starts Curbs U.S. Housing Rebound. The residential real-estate rebound suffered a setback in June as housing starts unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in almost a year, curbing how much construction contributed to U.S. economic growth last quarter. Work began on 836,000 houses at an annualized rate, the least since August and down 9.9 % from a revised 928,000 pace in May, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The drop was led by a 26.2 % plunge in multifamily projects, which are more volatile than work on single-family homes. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

UK Unemployment Falls By 57,000 To 2.51 Million. UK unemployment fell by 57,000 to 2.51 million in the three months to May, the Office for National Statistics said. Youth unemployment fell by 20,000, but the number of long-term jobless hit a 17-year high. The number of Jobseeker's Allowance claimants in June fell by 21,200 to 1.48 million, the first fall below 1.5 million for nearly three years. Ministers said it showed that recovery was taking hold, but critics said the human costs were still too high. Separately, the ONS reported that average earnings increased by 1.7% in the year to May, up by 0.2% on the previous month, giving an average weekly wage of £476. (BBC)

Greek MPs Back Public Sector Cuts Amid Protests. The parliament in Greece has narrowly approved a public sector reform bill that will see thousands of people lose their jobs. In a 153-140 vote, MPs backed the bill tied to the country's fresh 6.8bn euros of bailout loans, needed to keep Greece afloat. During the debate thousands of protesters rallied outside the parliament in the capital Athens. Greece has recently been hit by a series of strikes against the cuts. (BBC)

Russian Investment Unexpectedly Contracts In June. Russian fixed-capital investment unexpectedly fell the most since February 2010, adding to signs that the economy is failing to gain momentum. Investment dropped 3.7 % in June from a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said by e-mail today. The median estimate of 16 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a 0.5% increase. Unemployment also unexpectedly rose to 5.4 % from 5.2 % in May. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Up Vs. Euro, Yen After Bernanke Testimony. The U.S. dollar rose against most rivals Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke concluded answering questions from lawmakers in the first of his two-day testimony to Congress. The euro fell to $1.3107 from late Tuesday’s $1.3142. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar rose to ¥99.56 in recent trade, compared with ¥99.21 Tuesday. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six others, rose to 82.715 in recent trade from 82.599 late Tuesday in North America. Among the major currency pairs, the British pound rose to $1.5212 from $1.5115 on Tuesday, extending gains after the Bank of England released the minutes of the first meeting led by Gov. Mark Carney. The Australian dollar exchanged hands at 92.32 U.S. cents in recent trade, slightly lower than late Tuesday’s level. (Market Watch)

 

Commodities

Oil Rises As U.S. Inventories Drop Again, Gasoline Off. Brent crude inched higher on Wednesday while gasoline prices fell slightly after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported further draws in American crude stockpiles and larger-than-expected increases in gasoline inventories. Brent crude traded up 47 cents to settle at $108.61 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate gained 48 cents to settle at $106.48 a barrel. RBOB gasoline fell for the first time in three days, down just over 2 cents to $3.1101 a gallon. (Reuters)

Gold Tumbles As Bernanke Sees Fed Tapering Later This Year. Gold fell more than 1 % on Wednesday after Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank still expects to start scaling back its massive bond purchase program later this year. Spot gold fell 1.3 % to $1,275.84 an ounce by 3:24 p.m. EDT (1924 GMT), sharply below a session high at $1,300.16 an ounce. Among other precious metals, silver fell 3.4 % to $19.31 an ounce. Platinum was down 1.4 % to $1,403.74 an ounce, while palladium eased 0.3 % to $731.22 an ounce. (Reuters)

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