Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 22 July 2013

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Publish date: Mon, 22 Jul 2013, 09:59 AM

Global

G-20 Puts Growth Before Austerity, Seeks To Calm Markets. The Group of 20 nations pledged on Saturday to put growth before austerity, seeking to revive a global economy that "remains too weak" and adjusting stimulus policies with care so that recovery is not derailed by volatile financial markets. Finance ministers and central bankers signed off on a communique that acknowledged the benefits of expansive policies in the United States and Japan but highlighted the recession in the euro zone and a slowdown in emerging markets. "While our policy actions have contributed to contain downside risks, those still remain elevated," the statement said. "There has been an increase in financial market volatility and a tightening of conditions." (Reuters)

G20 Backs Plan To Stop Global Tax Avoidance And Evasion. Finance ministers from the G20 group of leading nations have formally backed plans to tackle international tax avoidance and evasion. A statement issued earlier supports the automatic exchange of tax information between countries. It also backs plans by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development to stop firms moving their profits across borders to avoid taxes. The OECD said some firms "abuse" current rules to avoid tax. (BBC)

 

Asia 

Abe Coalition Cements Hold On Japan’s Diet. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s coalition won a majority in an election to parliament’s upper house, offering a broader mandate for reform as he seeks to revive the economy and strengthen defense. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and its partner New Komeito will win at least 74 of the 121 seats up for grabs in today’s election, while the Democratic Party of Japan, previously the largest party in the upper house, will get a minimum of 15 -- its worst such showing since it was formed in 1998, state broadcaster NHK estimated after polls closed. (Bloomberg)

China Frees Banks To Set Their Own Lending Rates. Chinese authorities have given the banking industry greater freedom by allowing banks to set their own lending rates. Previously they were not allowed to lend at rates below a certain level set by the People's Bank of China (PBOC). The People's Bank said it hoped the move would lead to lower costs for companies. It is being seen as a significant part of the government's plan to make the economy more market-orientated. (BBC)

Indonesia Sees Strong FDI In Second Quarter. Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, sees strong foreign direct investment in the second quarter but is worried that its forecast of 23 per cent growth this year may suffer due to recent financial market volatility.  “Growth may be more or less comparable to that we had in the last quarter. It is still quite impressive,” Finance Minister Chatib Basri said after a meeting of finance ministers from the Group of 20 economies in Moscow.  In the first three months of the year, FDI grew 27.2 per cent to 65.5 trillion rupiah (RM21.7 billion), driven by inflows into mining, base chemicals and metal sectors. (Reuters) 

Bangkok Cuts Growth Forecast. Thailand’s central bank cut its 2013 economic growth forecast to 4.2% from 5.1% and lowered its export and inflation projections, bolstering views  it has room to keep monetary policy easy to support expansion. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) yesterday slashed its export projection for this year to 4% from 7.5%, and that for core inflation, which guides monetary policy, to just 1.1% from 1.6%. BoT assistant governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan told a briefing that the downward revision in growth was “because of slowing demand at home and abroad. (Thai) economic stimulus also ended sooner than expected and exports are recovering slowly.” (Reuters)

 

USA

Detroit Becomes Largest US City To File For Bankruptcy. Detroit may be gearing up for a battle with creditors the day after it became the largest US city ever to file for bankruptcy, with $18bn of debt. Creditors fear they will not be paid, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder said, adding the city is "basically broke". Court papers filed on Thursday night listed 100,000 entities as creditors to the city. But unions have described the bankruptcy filing as a power grab. Detroit, once a symbol of US industrial power, has faced decades of decline. It is seeking protection from creditors who include public-sector workers and their pension funds. Detroit's problems stem from declining industry. Public services are nearing collapse and about 70,000 properties lie abandoned. (BBC)

 

Europe

UK Government Borrowing Fell In 2012-13, Revised Figures Show. Government borrowing fell in the 2012-13 fiscal year after all, the latest official estimate suggests. Public sector net borrowing, excluding the cost of interventions such as the Royal Mail pension transfer, was revised down to £116.5bn. It means that total borrowing actually fell, by £2.1bn, from the year before, contrary to a previous estimate in May. The latest data from the Office for National Statistics also showed borrowing fell in June. (BBC)

Cameron Says Improving Economy May Allow U.K. To Reduce Taxes. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said the U.K. economy is “healing” and that should allow the government to cut taxes. “As we start to see the economy grow stronger -- and it is growing stronger -- as we start to see the country improve, actually I want to give people back some of their hard-earned money and try to reduce their taxes,” Cameron said in an interview on the BBC’s “Andrew Marr Show” broadcast today. “Your economy does better if you say to people you’ve worked hard, you’ve done the right thing, here is some of your own money back in a tax reduction.” (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Pulls Back Slightly Against Most Rivals. The U.S. dollar pulled back against other majors Friday amid the Group of 20 summit in Moscow and ahead of Japan’s upper-house elections. The ICE dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, slipped to 82.633 from 82.783 late Thursday in North America. Among other majors, the  euro rose to $1.3139 from $1.3110 late Thursday, while the British pound advanced to $1.5268 from $1.5220. The yen relinquished earlier gains against the greenback, with the dollar exchanging hands at ¥100.60 recently from late Thursday’s ¥100.50 after Japanese stocks took a sudden dive in volatile trade. The Australian dollar surged to an intraday high of 92.34 U.S. cents after the Chinese central bank’s news. (Market Watch)

 

Commodities

US Crude Oil Trades Above Brent For First Time In 3 Years. U.S. oil futures traded above the global crude-market benchmark, North Sea Brent, for the first time since 2010 on Friday as signs of strong demand from U.S. refiners boosted spread trading and bets that the era of the U.S. discount was ending. Brent for September fell 63 cents to settle at $108.07 a barrel after hitting $109.18 earlier in the session. August U.S. crude hit a 16-month high of $109.32 earlier in the day and settled at $108.05, up 1 cent. It extended its gains in post-settlement trading, up 28 cents to $108.32 at 3:37 p.m. EDT (1937 GMT). (Reuters)

Gold Heads For Second Week Of Gains On Fed Reassurance. Gold edged up on Friday and was on track for its second weekly gain, boosted by a slightly softer dollar following assurances from the U.S. Federal Reserve about its plans for stimulus withdrawal. Spot gold rose 0.4 % to $1,289.06 by 1221 GMT. For the week, gold looks set to gain about 0.5 %, adding to last week's 5 % rise. Silver was little changed at $19.33 an ounce.  Palladium fell 0.3 % to $740.22 an ounce and platinum gained 0.3 % to $1,415.99 an ounce. (Reuters) 

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