Kenanga Research & Investment

Macro Bits - 24 July 2013

kiasutrader
Publish date: Wed, 24 Jul 2013, 10:11 AM

Global

Emerging Markets Gain Clout At IMF Amid Faster Growth Trends. The clout of emerging markets at the International Monetary Fund is rising as faster economic growth from China to India in the past few years boosted their voting power, data released by the fund show. The calculated quota share of emerging and developing economies, which determines how much a country can borrow and its voting share at the IMF, increased to 45.3 % in 2011 from 43.9 % in 2010 and 41.8 % in 2008, according to a report released today and discussed by the board last month. The share for advanced economies fell to 54.7 % from 56.1 %. (Bloomberg)

IMF Promises Greater Openness. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) tiptoed towards greater openness on Monday, pledging to publish more reports on its lending to governments and to release details of internal discussions more quickly. To publish or not to publish has long been a burning debate within the Washington-based multilateral lender. The conflict reflects the IMF's dual functions: to advise each of its 188 member countries on their economies, and to act as a global economic watchdog. In its discussions with each government, the IMF must balance transparency and confidentiality, as it seeks to give insight into a country's economy without jeopardising privileged information that can sometimes be politically damaging. (Reuters) 

 

Malaysia

Second Finance Minister Says H1 GDP Growth At 5%. Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah said the government expects to record a GDP growth of at least 5% in the first half of this year while growth in the whole year should range at around 5%-6%. "It should be better (than last year) for the first half of the year. The key strength of the economy is now government support and private consumption - private investment and public expenditure," he said on Tuesday. "I believe we can achieve 5% (first half) unless there is something very extraordinary that takes place in the global economy - but that we cannot say (predict)," he added. On the country's current deficits, Husni expected it to be kept at about 4% this year and subsequently reduced to 3.5% in the year thereafter. (The Star)

 

Asia 

Japan Consumers Haven't Been This Confident In 7 Years. Consumer confidence in Japan rose to its highest level in over seven years during the second quarter, a survey by market research firm Nielsen showed on Tuesday, as the country undergoes an economic revival led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Japan's consumer confidence index rose five points to 78, its highest reading since the first quarter of 2006, according to Nielsen's quarterly survey of consumer confidence and spending intentions. However, that figure still trails behind the global average of 94. Index levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism. (CNBC)

China Eyes Fresh Stimulus As Economy Stalls, Sets 7pc Growth Floor. "The bottom line for economic growth is 7pc, and this bottom line must not be crossed," said Premier Li Keqiang, giving an explicit pledge to head off a hard-landing. Mr Li's comments suggest a major shift in policy by Beijing, which has deliberately engineered a slow-down over recent months by  squeezing credit. The government has been rattled by upheavals in the interbank market and has begun to heed warnings that the crackdown has gone too far. "As long as the economic growth rate, employment and other indicators don't slip below our lower limit and inflation doesn't exceed our upper limit we'll focus on restructuring and pushing reforms," Mr Li said, according to Beijing News. The inflation cap is set at 3.5pc this year. China's press reported plans for a fresh burst of spending on railways and infrastructure, including a $40bn project to build the world's longest undersea tunnel across the Bohai Strait.  (The Telegraph)

Singapore Cuts 2013 Inflation Outlook. Singapore’s central bank lowered its inflation outlook for the year but said it was concerned about household debt levels as interest rates looked set to rise. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) revised downwards its inflation forecast for 2013 to 23% from an earlier 34%, citing the sharp fall in car prices earlier this year as well as a slower rise in accommodation costs. (Reuters)

Investment Growth Slows In Indonesia. Indonesia’s investment growth slowed last quarter and foreign firms are expected to turn more cautious this year, the country’s investment chief said. Total investment climbed 29.8 % to 99.8 trillion rupiah (RM31 billion) in the three months ended June 30 from a year earlier, the Investment Coordinating Board said yesterday. In the first six months of 2013, investment rose 30.2 % to 192.8 trillion rupiah from a year earlier. The World Bank cut 2013 forecast for Indonesian growth to 5.9 % this month. Policymakers struggle to contain inflation and a current-account deficit. (Bloomberg)

 

North America

U.S. House Prices Climbed 7.3% In Year Through May. U.S. house prices rose 7.3 % in the year through May as buyers competed for a small supply of listings, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Prices increased 0.7 % on a seasonally adjusted basis from April, the FHFA said in a report today from Washington. The average economist estimate was for a 0.8 % gain, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg)

Canada May Retail Sales Gain Fastest In 3 Years On Autos. Canadian retail sales rose at the fastest pace in three years in May on gains in almost every category, led by automobiles. Sales increased 1.9 % to a record C$40.4 billion ($39.1 billion), Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The gain was almost double the highest forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 20 economists, which had a median forecast of 0.4 %. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

Euro Zone Consumer Confidence Nears 2-Year High In July. Consumer morale in the euro zone improved by more than expected in July, rising to its highest level in almost two years, the European Commission said on Tuesday. Consumer confidence in the 17 countries using the euro jumped to -17.4 points in July from -18.8 points in June, beating market expectations for a rise to -18.30 points. The reading was the best since August 2011, when it stood at -16.8. (Reuters)

UK Export Activity At Highest Level Since 2007, Says BCC. UK export activity has reached levels not seen since the financial crisis, according to a report from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC). Its trade index rose to 118.12 in the second quarter, up 2.9% on the same period last year. The index is based on export documents issued to businesses by the BCC. The report includes a survey to measure confidence and the results suggest exporters are optimistic over future sales and profits. (BBC)

French Business Confidence Rises To Highest In 15 Months. French business confidence rose to the highest in 15 months in July, indicating that improving demand is helping to support an economy that’s stagnated for the past two years. Sentiment among industrial executives increased to 95 in from 93 in June, national statistics office Insee in Paris said today. That’s above the reading of 94 that was the median forecast of 21 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. A broader index including the services, wholesale and construction industries climbed to 87 from 86. (Bloomberg)

Bunds Fall As China Growth Pledge Damps Safety Demand. Germany’s 10-year bunds dropped for the first time in a week after China’s leadership said it won’t let economic growth slow below 7 %, damping demand for the safest fixed-income assets. German two-year yields climbed to a two-week high as a report showed consumer confidence in the euro area improved more than economists estimated in July and an indicator of overnight borrowing costs rose. Spanish and Italian securities also declined. The Netherlands sold 1.79 billion euros ($2.37 billion) of bonds due in July 2021 and January 2042 and Spain auctioned bills. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Falls In Low Trade On Richmond Fed Surprise. The U.S. dollar fell against most rivals Tuesday as light volume and a lack of market drivers turned the focus to technical levels and second-tier data. The ICE dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, fell to 82.024 from 82.235 late Monday in North American trade. The euro rose to $1.3210 in recent trade from $1.3185 late Monday. The British pound hovered near prior-day levels, trading at $1.5351 versus $1.5352. The dollar rose on Tuesday against the Japanese yen, buying ¥99.74 compared with late Monday’s ¥99.60. Among other major currency pairs, the Australian dollar bought 92.56 U.S. cents, slightly higher than 92.42 U.S. cents on Monday. (Market Watch) 

 

Commodities

Brent Edges Higher, Supported By Spread Trade. Brent crude rose on Tuesday, lifted by profit-taking on the trans-Atlantic spread, China's efforts to support its economy, and supply concerns. Front-month September Brent crude oil traded up 33 cents to $108.48 a barrel at 1:15 p.m. EDT (1715 GMT). September U.S. crude futures, which became the front-month contract on Tuesday, rose 29 cents to trade at $107.23 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Rises To 1-Month High On Options-Related Buying. Gold rose to a one-month high on Tuesday as speculators bought back bearish bets ahead of an option expiry later this week after the metal rallied further above a technical threshold at $1,300 an ounce breached in the previous session. Spot gold was up 0.6 % at $1,342.74 an ounce by 3:50 p.m. EDT (1950 GMT), after hitting a fresh one-month high of $1,346.11. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.3% at $20.47 an ounce, having risen 5 % on Monday. Spot platinum inched up 0.1 % to $1,442 an ounce, while palladium 1 % lower to $736.72 an ounce. (Reuters)

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