Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 25 July 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 25 Jul 2013, 09:58 AM

Asia 

Japan Exports Continue To Recover On A Weak Yen. Japanese exports continue to recover, rising for a fourth month in a row in June, boosted by a weak yen and a revival in demand from Europe. Exports rose 7.4% from a year earlier. Sales to the European Union (EU) rose by 8.6% - the first jump in 21 months. The Japanese yen has weakened 25% against the US dollar since November last year after a series of aggressive policy moves by Japan. (BBC)

Japan Companies Invest Record Amounts In SE Asia. Japanese firms have spent record amounts, scooping up assets in Southeast Asia this year, part of a trend that has seen Tokyo moving to boost its presence in the fast-growing region and away from China.  Japanese firms have spent a staggering US$8.2 billion on M&A in Southeast Asia so far in 2013, already a record with five months to go and well above the US$614 million at the same point in 2012, data provider Dealogic said. The figure easily outstrips the previous full-year best of US$7.6 billion in 2006, it added. (AFP) 

China Manufacturing Activity Slows To 11-Month Low. China's manufacturing activity fell to an 11-month low in July, hurt by a decline in new orders, according to a preliminary survey by HSBC. The bank's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 47.7 from 48.2 in June. The PMI is a key indicator of activity in the sector and a reading below 50 shows contraction. This is the third month in a row that the HSBC reading has been below that level. The data comes amid fears of a slowdown in China's overall economy. (BBC)

 

USA

Best Home Sales In Five Years Signal Building Gain. Sales of new U.S. homes rose in June to the highest level in five years, pointing to gains in residential construction that will support the economic expansion in the second half of the year. Purchases climbed 8.3 % to an annualized pace of 497,000 homes, the highest level since May 2008, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median estimate of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a gain to 484,000. (Bloomberg)

Obama Says Opponents Distract From Steps To Boost Economy. President Barack Obama, facing renewed battles with congressional Republicans over fiscal policy and the debt ceiling, accused his political opponents of diverting attention from the need to boost the U.S. economy. “With an endless parade of distractions, political posturing and phony scandals, Washington has taken its eye off the ball,” Obama said. “I am here to say this needs to stop.” Following months when the focus has been on the president’s second-term job appointees, his push for a new immigration law, attempts to block his signature health-care law and Republican-led investigations into his administration, Obama is seeking to put attention back on the economy. He said today that his policies have added to job growth and stability. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

Eurozone Industry 'Growing Again'. Private sector industry in the eurozone returned  to growth in July, according to a closelywatched survey, boosting hopes that the single currency area will soon emerge from recession. The Markit eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which measures business output, was 50.4 in July. A figure above 50 indicates expansion. July's figure was up from 48.7 in June, and marks an 18-month high. The eurozone has been in recession since the end of 2011. (BBC)

UK CBI Factory Order Balance Rises More Than Forecast In July. British factory order books improved more than expected this month and firms' optimism rose, the CBI's industrial trends survey showed on Wednesday. The total order book balance in the Confederation of British Industry survey rose to -12 from -18 in June, above analysts' expectations of a reading of -15. That was the highest reading since last December and better than the long-run average of -17. (Reuters)

Japanese, US Firms Lead Foreign Investment In Britain. US and Japanese companies led an increase in foreign investment in Britain in the year to March, a government report said yesterday. As Britain attempts to revive its economy, the government has cut corporate tax rates to attract foreign firms and given more resources to the organisation which promotes trade and investment in Britain abroad. The report showed financial services, advanced manufacturing and creative sectors attracted the bulk of the investments. The number of new foreign investment projects started during 2012/13 rose almost 11 % to 1,559 YoY, extracts from the report showed.  It did not value the projects, but said they had created 60,000 jobs and protected a further 110,000. (Reuters)

Portugal Posts Wider Deficit As Spending Rises, Revenue Falls. Portugal’s Finance Ministry said the government posted a wider deficit in the six months through June after spending rose and revenue fell. The deficit of the central administration and social security agency was 4.02 billion euros ($5.3 billion) compared with a deficit of 1.7 billion euros in the same period of 2012, the Finance Ministry’s budget office said in a report on its website. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Rises As New Home Sales Soar. The U.S. dollar rose against major rivals Wednesday as data showed a pickup in the U.S. manufacturing sector and new home sales at a five-year high. The euro fell to $1.3196 in recent trade from $1.3210 on Tuesday and the British pound fell to $1.5313 from $1.5351. The U.S. dollar rose to 100.18 Japanese yen from ¥99.74 late Tuesday. The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s movement against six other major currencies, rose to 82.285 from 82.024. The Aussie traded at 91.57 U.S. cents recently, lower than 92.56 U.S. cents late Tuesday. (Market Watch)

 

Commodities

Oil Falls On Weak Chinese Manufacturing Data, Profit Taking. Oil prices fell on Wednesday, dragged by weak manufacturing data from China, with U.S. crude falling more steeply than Brent late in the session as traders took profits on the spread between the two contracts.  On Wednesday, Brent crude fell $1.23 to settle at $107.19 a barrel. On Tuesday, Brent settled up 27 cents. U.S. crude, also known as West Texas intermediate, lost $1.84 to settle at $105.39, after ending 29 cents higher. (Reuters)

Gold Drops 2 % On Improved Economic Outlook. Gold fell more than two % on Wednesday as signs of continued economic recovery both in the United States and Europe prompted funds to exit the bullion market after reaching a one-month high earlier in the day. Spot gold was down 2.1 % to $1,319.24 an ounce by 3:29 p.m. EDT (1929 GMT), after earlier hitting $1,347.69 an ounce, its highest since June 20. Among other precious metals, silver was down 1.8% to $20.08 an ounce. Platinum eased 0.1 % to $1,446.25 an ounce, while palladium rose 0.6 % to $743.75 an ounce. (Reuters)

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