Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits

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Publish date: Mon, 12 Aug 2013, 10:02 AM

Asia

Chinese Economic Data Points To End Of Slowdown. China's economy could be stabilising, the latest set of economic figures from the country has suggested. Factory output in July rose 9.7% compared with a year ago, ahead of expectations and up from the previous month's figure of 8.9%. Consumer prices held steady in July, rising 2.7% from a year earlier, matching the rate seen in June. China's growth rate has been slowing at its fastest pace since the global financial crisis in 2008. (BBC)

Chinese Exports And Imports Rise More Than Expected. Growth in Chinese exports and imports rose more than expected in July, a sharp recovery from the previous month. Chinese exports rose 5.1% compared with a year earlier while imports gained 10.9%. The rises were large swings from June's data, which showed exports had fallen 3.1% and imports had dropped 0.7%. Last month, the government reiterated its 7.5% economic growth target for this year, after expansion slowed in the second quarter. The July data meant the trade surplus narrowed to $17.8bn, down from June's $27.1bn. (BBC)

 

USA

GDP Growth A Question Mark As Wholesale Inventories Miss. U.S. wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell for a second straight month in June, which could prompt economists to mark down their second-quarter growth estimates after they recently raised them. The Commerce Department said on Friday wholesale inventories fell 0.2 % after declining 0.6 % in May. Economists polled by Reuters had expected stocks at wholesalers to rebound 0.4 % after a previously reported 0.5 % fall. (Reuters)

US Consumer Borrowing Rose $13.8 Billion In June. Americans borrowed more in June to buy cars and attend schools. But they were frugal again with their credit cards, as many remain wary of taking on high-interest debt. Consumers increased their borrowing $13.8 billion in June from May to a seasonally adjusted $2.85 trillion, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its monthly report on consumer credit. That's the highest level ever. The category that includes credit card debt dropped $2.7 billion in June and remains 16.5 % below its July 2008 peak. (AP)

 

Europe

UK Trade Gap Shrinks As Exports Rise. The UK goods trade deficit shrank to its smallest amount in almost a year in June, official figures have shown, helped by a rise in exports. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the gap between imports and exports narrowed to £8.1bn in June, down from £8.7bn in May. The trade gap in goods with non-EU countries fell sharply from £4bn in May to £2.6bn in June, well below forecasts of a £3.8bn deficit. (BBC)

UK Wages Decline Among Worst In Europe. Wages in the UK have seen one of the largest falls in the European Union during the economic downturn, according to official figures. The figures, which were requested by the Labour Party and collated by the House of Commons library, show average hourly wages have fallen 5.5% since mid-2010, adjusted for inflation. That is the fourth-worst decline among the 27 EU nations. By contrast, German hourly wages rose by 2.7% over the same period. Across the European Union as a whole, average wages fell 0.7%. (BBC)

Greek Unemployment Rate Hit Record High In May. Greece's unemployment rate hit another record high in May of 27.6%, according to the country's statistics body. The figure, from the Hellenic Statistics Authority, compares with a jobless rate of 23.8% in May last year. Among those in the labour market aged 15-24, the rate is 64.9%, as Greece sees its sixth year of recession. Greece has seen a 25% drop in output since 2007. (BBC)

France: No Change To 2013 Growth Forecasts. France's finance minister has denied that the eurozone's second-biggest country has revised down its economic prospects for 2013. Pierre Moscovici was quoted on Saturday as saying that France's economy might shrink 0.1% this year, after predicting 0.1% growth earlier this year. But he said on Sunday: "I have not made any revision on the forecast of growth in France." He added that a new forecast might appear with the new budget next month. France has not had a year of negative growth since 2009. (BBC)

 

Currencies

India's Central Bank In New Measures To Boost Rupee. India's central bank has announced new measures to reduce volatility in currency markets and support the weakened rupee. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it will auction 220bn rupees ($3.6bn) of government cash management bills every Monday. It did not say how many weeks the sale would go on. The rupee hit a record low of 61.80 against the US dollar on Tuesday. Other measures have so-far failed to shore up the currency. The rupee has lost more than 12% of its value since the start of the year, because of investors taking money out of the country, among other reasons. (BBC)

Dollar Sees Weekly Fall; Aussie Jumps. The U.S. dollar eked out a minor gain versus most major rivals Friday, but saw a weekly decline as the currency remained vulnerable to a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields as traders weigh when the Federal Reserve will begin scaling back the flow of monetary stimulus. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency’s movement against six rivals, traded at 81.131, compared with 81.028 late Thursday, leaving it on track for a weekly decline of around 1%. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar jumped 1.1% to 91.96 U.S. cents. The currency was lifted after China said industrial production rose 9.7% in July from a year ago, the fastest pace of growth since February. The euro on Friday slipped to $1.3340 from a level of $1.3384 late Thursday, leaving it up 0.5% for the week. The British pound edged down to $1.5505 versus Thursday’s level of $1.5537, leaving sterling on track for a 1.4% weekly rise. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar bought 96.21 U.S. cents, down from ¥96.68 on Thursday. (Market Watch) 

 

Commodities

Oil Jumps On Supply Worries. Oil prices rose on Friday for the first time in six days, driven partly by supply disruptions in the North Sea and other major production centers. Benchmark North Sea Brent out of London settled up 1.4 % at $108.322. U.S. crude finished up 2.5% at $105.97. Both crude types closed lower on the week, after factoring in losses from earlier sessions. (Reuters)

Gold Rises On Safety Bids As S&P Dips For 2nd Weekly Gain. Gold rose on Friday on an oil rally and falling U.S. equities, with bullion notched a second consecutive weekly gain due to uncertainty over when the U.S. Federal Reserve will reduce its economic stimulus policy. Spot gold was up 0.3 % at $1,314.91 an ounce 3:37 p.m. EDT (1937 GMT). For the week, gold is also up around 0.3 % for its fourth weekly gain in the past 5 weeks. Among other precious metals, silver rose 1.5 % to $20.51 an ounce, while platinum was up 0.8 % at $1,498.50 an ounce, and palladium added 0.6 % to $740.22 an ounce. (Reuters) 

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