Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 13 Aug 2013

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Publish date: Tue, 13 Aug 2013, 09:34 AM

Asia

Japanese Growth Slower Than Expected In Second Quarter. Japan's economy expanded at a slower pace than most analysts expected in the second quarter. Gross domestic product grew 0.6% in the April to June period, indicating an annualised increase of 2.6%, according the latest government figures. That is down from the 4.1% annual rate in the first three months of the year. Analysts were expecting growth of 3.6%.  Japan's Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has been trying to revive the economy after years of stagnation. His policies, known as Abenomics, include boosting the supply of money in the economy and raising government spending. So far those moves have helped to weaken the yen and boost profits for Japan's exporters. Monday's data from the Cabinet Office showed that exports and public spending contributed the most to growth. (BBC)

Singapore Cuts Trade Outlook As China Slowdown Caps Recovery. Singapore lowered its forecast for exports this year as a slowing expansion in China crimps demand for the nation’s goods, even as services helped the economy grow more than initially estimated last quarter. Non-oil domestic exports may be unchanged or rise 1 % this year, compared with a previous forecast of 2 % to 4 %, the trade promotion agency said in a statement today. Gross domestic product rose an annualized 15.5 % in the three months through June from the previous quarter, when it grew a revised 1.7 %, the Trade Ministry said separately. (Bloomberg)

India Plans Import Curbs To Steady Rupee As Factory Output Drops. India plans curbs on some imports to pare a record currentaccount deficit and another push for capital inflows to stem the rupee’s slide, as a drop in factory output underscored the risks facing Asia’s No. 3 economy. Imports of gold, silver and some non-essential items, as well as demand for crude oil, would be compressed under the plans, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said in parliament in New Delhi today. Industrial production fell 2.2 % in June from a year earlier, while consumer prices rose 9.64 % year-on-year in July, government reports showed. (Bloomberg)

 

USA

U.S. 10-Month Budget Gap Narrows On Higher Revenue. The U.S. government posted a 38 % smaller budget deficit in the 10 months through July than a year earlier, even as the shortfall last month was wider than economists forecast, the Treasury Department said. Outlays exceeded receipts by $97.6 billion last month, compared with a $69.6 billion shortfall in July 2012, the Treasury said today in Washington. The result, partly reflecting a difference in the timing of payments in July last year versus this year, compared with the $96 billion median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 27 economists. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

Greece's Slump Eases As GDP And Budget Both Improve. The severity of Greece's recession eased slightly in the second quarter, according to the country's statistics body. Greece's economy shrank at an annual rate of 4.6% in the three months to the end of June, a slight improvement on the 5.6% fall between January and March. The figure came as the government said its budget had swung into a surplus between January and July. The budget was boosted by EU subsidies. The data came at the same time as Greece reported a budget surplus of 2.6bn euros, trumping its target of a 3.1bn-euro deficit. (BBC)

Germany Trims Planned Bond Sales Amid Spending Cuts. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government expects to cut planned 2014 bond sales, predicting increased tax collections and reduced spending will help keep its budget balanced, a draft federal spending plan shows. Germany plans to sell 216.5 billion euros ($287 billion) of bonds in 2014 compared with 240 billion euros this year, the 3,358-page document shows. That includes 107.6 billion euros of bonds with a maturity of at least four years, compared with 114.5 billion euros this year, the provisional plan shows. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Rises As Investors Focus On Fed Policy. The U.S. dollar rose against major rivals Monday, recovering from a weekly loss, as investors continued to guess when the Federal Reserve would begin to slow its monthly asset purchases. The dollar bought 96.66 yen in recent trade, higher than ¥96.21 late Friday in North America. The euro fell to $1.3308 from $1.3340 on Friday. The European currency rose 0.5% last week. The British pound also dipped against the dollar, falling to $1.5471 from $1.5505. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency’s movement against six rivals, rose to 81.331 from 81.131 late Friday. The index fell about 1% last week. In other forex action, the Australian dollar fetched 91.50 U.S. cents, down from 91.96 U.S. cents late Friday. (Market Watch) 

 

Commodities

Oil Rises On Libya Supply Disruptions. Brent crude rose on Monday as fresh export disruptions in OPEC nation Libya stoked supply concerns. Brent crude rose 75 cents to settle at $108.97 a barrel, having fallen to a low of $107.43. Brent rose back above its 200-day moving average, a key technical indicator watched by traders, at $108.16. U.S. crude oil for September delivery inched up 13 cents to settle at $106.11 a barrel, having fallen to a low of $105.03 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Up Nearly 2 % On ETF Inflow, Tight Physical Supply. Gold rose nearly 2 % on Monday, hitting its highest in nearly three weeks as strong Chinese gold consumption and an inflow to gold-backed exchange-traded funds fuelled hopes of resurgent physical and investment buying.  Spot gold rose 1.7 % to $1,336.24 an ounce, having earlier traded as much as 2.2 % higher at $1,343.06, its highest since July 24.  Silver rose to a near two-month high of $21.45 an ounce and was last traded up 4.2 % at $21.39. Among platinum group metals, platinum was down 0.4 % to $1,493.72 an ounce, while palladium dropped 0.6 % to $735 an ounce. (Reuters)

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