Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 15 Aug 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 15 Aug 2013, 10:10 AM

Asia

India Inflation Tops Estimates As Rupee Plunge Tests Rajan. Indian inflation accelerated more than economists estimated in July as a plunging rupee stoked import costs, with the central bank today announcing curbs on foreign-exchange outflows to try and support the currency. The wholesale-price index rose 5.79 % from a year earlier, a five-month high that exceeded the median 5 % estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 34 analysts, a government report showed today. The Reserve Bank of India later reduced the amount some companies can invest overseas, as well as the limit on resident individuals’ remittances abroad. (Bloomberg)

 

USA

Producer Prices In U.S. Little Changed As Car Costs Decline. Wholesale prices in the U.S. unexpectedly were little changed in July, reflecting the biggest drop in auto costs in four years. The steady reading in the producer price index followed a 0.8 % gain in June, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 73 economists projected a 0.3% rise. The so-called core measure, which excludes volatile food and fuel, climbed less than forecast. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

Eurozone Comes Out Of Recession. The eurozone has emerged from recession after a record 18 months of economic contraction. The bloc's GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2013, slightly ahead of forecasts, the Eurostat agency said. The growth was widely expected after the German economy rose 0.7% between April and June. However, the overall figure masks the mixed economic fortunes among the countries that make up the 17-country eurozone  area. Germany and France both posted stronger-than-expected growth, expanding 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. Portugal, among the smallest and the weakest eurozone economies, showed the fastest growth, at 1.1%. (BBC)

UK Unemployment Falls By 4,000 To 2.51 Million. UK unemployment fell by a small 4,000 in the three months to June leaving 2.51 million out of work, says the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance in July fell more sharply, down by 29,000 to 1.4 million. The unemployment rate remains at 7.8%, still well above the 7% rate target set by the Bank of England. (BBC)

Merkel Warns Against Debt Perils As She Begins Re-Election Bid. Chancellor Angela Merkel warned against the perils of excessive debt as she began campaigning for Germany’s Sept. 22 election, seeking to defend her lead in the polls to clinch a third term. Addressing a crowd of more than 1,000 in the Hessian city of Seligenstadt yesterday, Merkel embraced a report that the 17-nation euro area had emerged from recession as “good news,” though she said growth must not be based on debt. “We’ve seen what can happen if you accumulate too much debt,” Merkel said. Higher borrowing costs spur rising interest rates, putting businesses in danger, she said. “Then you have unemployment -- and at that point you have a spiral.” (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Falls Against Pound, Steady Vs. Euro. The U.S. dollar fell against the British pound Wednesday following the release of minutes from the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee’s latest meeting, but was unchanged against the euro despite the region’s exit from a six-quarter recession. The  British pound rose to $1.5509 from Tuesday’s level at $1.5444. The  euro, however, bought $1.3257, slightly lower than $1.3259 late Tuesday in North America. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency’s movement against six rivals, slipped on Wednesday to 81.710 from 81.772 late Tuesday. Meanwhile, the dollar bought 98.02 Japanese yen, less than ¥98.22 late Tuesday. The Australian dollar firmed to 91.40 cents from Tuesday’s level of 90.95 U.S. cents. (Market Watch) 

 

Commodities

Oil Reaches 4-Month High As Middle East Tensions Flare. Brent crude prices rose to a 4-month high over $110 a barrel on Wednesday on concerns about supply disruptions in Libya and escalating violence in Egypt. Front-month September Brent, which expires on Thursday, rose 38 cents to settle at $110.20 a barrel after reaching a new 4-month high of $110.30. The more actively traded October contract gained 34 cents to settle at $108.82. September U.S. oil futures rose 2 cents to settle at $106.85 after a day of choppy trading, reversing earlier losses of more than $1. (Reuters)

Gold Rises 1 Pct On Commodities Rally. Gold rose around 1% on Wednesday as broad gains in the commodities complex and signs of simmering inflation lifted bullion after the previous day's drop. Spot gold rose 1.1 % to $1,334.84 per ounce by 3:56 p.m. EDT (1906 GMT). On Tuesday, gold ended 1 % lower as strong U.S. retail sales data boosted the dollar. Among other precious metals, silver rose 1.9 % to $21.81 an ounce, after hitting a two-month high of $21.85. Platinum was up 0.2 % to $1,500.74 an ounce, while palladium edged up 16 cents to $736.66 an ounce. (Reuters)

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