Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 20 Aug 2013

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Publish date: Tue, 20 Aug 2013, 10:03 AM

Malaysia

Government Intervention Needed To Correct Investment Imbalance Between Malaysia And China. The government needs to intervene and adopt a more pro-active stance in correcting the current investment imbalance between Malaysia and China, says the National Chamber of Commerce and Industry Malaysia (NCCIM). Its secretary-general Datuk Syed Hussien Al-Habshee said Malaysian investments in China stood at RM8bil, but Chinese investments in Malaysia was a meagre RM800mil. "The government needs to step in to correct this imbalance in China's favour. "The initiative to solve it needs commitment on the part of leaders from both countries. It needs government-to-government involvement," he told Bernama. (Bernama) 

 

Asia

Japan’s Exports Rise Most Since ’10 As Deficit Swells. Japan’s exports jumped by the most since 2010 in July, aiding Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to drive an economic recovery even as rising energy costs boosted the trade deficit. Exports increased 12.2 % from a year earlier after a 7.4 % rise in June, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo today. Imports climbed 19.6 %, leaving a trade deficit of 1.02 trillion yen ($10.5 billion), the third biggest on record in data back to 1979. The seasonally-adjusted deficit widened from June to 944 billion yen. (Bloomberg)

Thailand's Economy Falls Into Recession. Thailand has fallen into recession after the economy shrank unexpectedly in the second quarter of the year. The 0.3% contraction in gross domestic product between April and June followed a previous fall of 1.7% during the first quarter of 2013. Previously, Thailand had been recording strong economic growth, outpacing other economies in the region, with expansion of more than 6% during 2012. (BBC)

 

USA

Payrolls Rose In 32 U.S. States In July. Payrolls increased in 32 U.S. states in July, and the unemployment rate climbed in 28, indicating progress in the labor market remains uneven. California led the nation with a 38,100 gain in payrolls, followed by Georgia with 30,900 more jobs, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Economic growth is projected to accelerate in the final six months of 2013 as the effects of federal budget cuts and higher taxes fade and job- and home-price gains spread across wider swathes of the U.S. Faster hiring would help spur consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 % of the economy. (Bloomberg)

Obama Focuses On Risk Of New Bubble Undermining Broad Recovery. President Barack Obama, who took office amid the collapse of the last financial bubble, wants to make sure his economic recovery doesn’t generate the next one. Obama this month spoke four times in five days of the need to avoid what he called “artificial bubbles,” even in an economy that’s growing at just a 1.7 % rate and where employment and factory usage remain below pre-recession highs. “We have to turn the page on the  bubble-and-bust mentality that created this mess,” he said in his Aug. 10 weekly radio address. Obama’s cautionary notes call attention to the risk that the lessons of the financial crisis, which was spawned by a speculator-driven surge in asset values, will be forgotten, widening the income gap and undermining a broad-based recovery. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

Spain Bad Loan Ratio Rises To Record In June. Spanish banks' bad loans as a %age of total credit rose to 11.6 % in June, the highest level on record, Bank of Spain data showed on Monday. The ratio was up from 11.2 % in May and has been steadily increasing since a drop-off at the end of last year when lenders transferred toxic property assets to Spain's so-called bad bank. (Reuters)

Russian Consumer Demand Strengthens In Sign Of Resilience. Russian consumer spending accelerated in July as  unemployment unexpectedly fell and inflation eased to the slowest pace in eight months, boosting household purchasing power. Retail sales accelerated for a second month, growing 4.3 % from a year earlier after a 3.5 % increase in June, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said today in an e-mailed statement. The median estimate of 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a 3.7 % gain. Unemployment fell to 5.3 % from 5.4 %, surprising analysts who projected an increase to 5.5 %. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Edges Up; Indian Rupee Hits New Low. The U.S. dollar inched up against rivals Monday, while the Indian rupee hit a new low. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the unit against six major rivals, edged up to 81.255 from 81.236 late Friday in North America. But perhaps the session’s biggest move came from India, where the rupee fell to a new low against the U.S. dollar. The dollar hit a record of 63.23 Indian rupees on Monday, said Sebastien Galy, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Société Générale in New York, a continuation of the pressure on emerging-market currencies as U.S. Treasury yields rise. Among the major currency pairs Monday, the dollar rose against the Japanese yen to trade at ¥97.64, compared with late Friday’s level of ¥97.51. But the dollar edged lower against its European counterparts Monday. The euro bought $1.3337 compared to $1.3334 on Friday. The British pound traded at $1.5647, up from $1.5624 on Friday. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell to 91.22 U.S. cents from 91.90 U.S. cents. The Aussie picked up 0.6% last week versus its U.S. counterpart. (Market Watch)

 

Commodities

Brent Oil Hit By Profit-Taking But Supported By Egypt. Oil prices ended the day slightly lower in lackluster trading on Monday as light profit-taking pressured prices but unrest in Egypt and the loss of Libyan oil exports put a floor under them. Brent crude oil futures for October delivery settled 50 cents lower at $109.90 per barrel after trading as high as $111. U.S. crude oil futures for September settled 36 cents lower at $107.10 per barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Falls On Worries Over Fed Stimulus Curb. Gold fell on Monday, snapping a three-day winning streak, as rising U.S. bond yields signal the U.S. Federal Reserve could be moving closer to reducing monetary stimulus next month, analysts said. Spot gold fell 0.7 % to $1,365.54 an ounce by 4:18 p.m. EDT (2018 GMT), having earlier hit a two-month peak of $1,384.10.Silver was down 0.3% to $23.14, having earlier risen to its highest in almost three months at $23.60. Platinum was down 1 % at $1,504.49, and palladium fell 1.4 % to $749.75 an ounce. (Reuters)

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