Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 21 Aug 2013

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Publish date: Wed, 21 Aug 2013, 09:56 AM

Malaysia

Retail Sector Recorded Rm88b Sales In 2012. Last year, the retail sector in Malaysia generated RM88 billion in sales and for this year, the figure is expected to grow by 6.4 %.  This sector, according to Tan Hai Hsin, managing director of RGM Retail Group (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, is one of the key drivers of the economy.  In his presentation on "Shopping trends in Malaysia's retail market", Tan, who is also a retail consultant, said a growing segment in the retail sector that is contributing towards the increased domestic demand and consumption is online shopping.  He observes that the online shopping, which is mostly for food, goods and services, is now shifting to the mobile platform.  He puts this down to the popularity of smartphones and tablet computers, which sales are increasing.  (Business Times)

Japan Keen To Boost Services Presence In Malaysia. Japan, one of the longest bilateral trading partners of Malaysia, wants to expand its presence in Malaysia’s services sector via the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).  “They are keen to increase their presence in the retail sector and spoke about market opening measures,” said International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed on the sidelines of a bilateral meeting with Japanese counterpart Toshimitsu Motegi in Brunei yesterday. Mustapa and Motegi also spoke about the high quality Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, which is aimed at broadening and strengthening the existing Asean Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with Asean members and dialogue partners. The RCEP includes the 10 Asean nations plus dialogue partners — China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. Mustapa expects Malaysia’s trade with the rest of the RCEP grouping to double by 2020 from RM726.69 billion in 2012. In 2012, Malaysia’s global trade totalled RM1.31 trillion. (Business Times)

 

Asia

China State Firms's Profit Growth Quickens. Annual profit growth in China’s state firms picked up pace in the first seven months of 2013, official data showed, offering new signs that the economy may be regaining strength in the second half of the year. Stateowned non financial companies made combined profits of 1.3 trillion yuan (US$212.32bil) for January-July, up 7.6% from a year ago, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement on its website. It did not specify the type of profit. The profit growth is up from an annual rise of 7% in the first six months and 6.5% in the first five months. The ministry said firms in the electronics, power, petrochemical and real estate industries saw strong profit growth, while those in nonferrous metals, chemical, coal  and transportation sectors suffered big drops in earnings. Firms owned by the central government reported an annual rise of 14.9% in profits in the first seven months. Companies owned by local governments saw a profit drop of 8.2%. (Reuters)

India Eases Cash-Supply Curbs As Surging Yields Imperil Growth. India’s central bank announced plans to buy longdated government bonds after a surge in yields imperiled economic growth, in a move that eases cash-supply curbs aimed at stemming a plunge in the rupee. The Reserve Bank of India will conduct open-market debt purchases of 80 billion rupees ($1.3 billion) on Aug. 23 and “thereafter calibrate them both in terms of quantum and frequency” based on market conditions, it said in a statement yesterday. The earlier liquidity-tightening steps must not “harden longer term yields sharply” and hurt lending, it said. (Bloomberg)

 

North America

Moody's: Outlook For U.S. States Improves After Five Years. Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday revised its outlook for U.S. states to stable from negative, marking a significant improvement in its assessment of state finances after cutting its outlook for the sector more than five years ago. The rating agency said that the uncertainty surrounding federal budget cuts has diminished, revenue growth for many states has exceeded expectations, and budget reserves are continuing to grow. Even as it marked better days for state budgets, Moody's warned the sector faces economic and fiscal risks. (Reuters)

Canada Wholesale Sales Fall From Record In Widespread Drop. Canadian wholesale sales fell in June from a record the previous month with declines in every major category, led by farming and building supplies, adding to signs of a mid-year slowdown in the world’s 11th largest economy. Wholesale sales dropped 2.8 % to C$48.8 billion ($47.1 billion), the fastest since January 2009, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The decline exceeded the most pessimistic of 13 estimates in a Bloomberg survey that had a median estimate for a 0.5 % fall. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

U.K. Mortgage Lending Hits Highest Since Lehman Collapse. U.K. mortgage lending rose to the highest since the beginning of the financial crisis last month, adding to signs of a recovery in the property market. Gross lending increased 12 % from June to 16.6 billion pounds ($26 billion), the Council of Mortgage Lenders said in a report today. That’s up 29 % from July 2012 and the highest since October 2008, the month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (Bloomberg)

Greece Will Need New Bailout, Says Germany's Schaeuble. Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has said for the first time that Greece will need another bailout to plug a forthcoming funding gap. His comments come at a sensitive time for his party as Germany will hold elections in five weeks' time. Germans are uncomfortable with the size of European country bailouts, for which they pay the lion's share. His boss is Germany's leader is Angela Merkel, who said recently it was too early to talk about new funding. But Mr Schaeuble told an election rally: "There will have to be another programme in Greece." (BBC)

 

Currencies

Rupee Slumps To Record Low While Dollar Slips. The U.S. dollar fell against major rivals Tuesday but action was dominated by emerging-market currencies, with the Indian rupee tumbling to a fresh all-time low. The dollar rose above the 64-rupee mark for the first time on Tuesday to reach a record high of 64.12 rupees intraday, according to FactSet. The U.S. unit bought 63.28 rupees in recent trade, up from 63.14 rupees late Monday in North America. Among other ailing emerging market currencies, the Indonesian rupiah hovered near its lowest level in more than four years. The dollar bought 10,745 rupiah in recent trade, up from 10,546 rupiah late Monday. On Tuesday, the  euro jumped to $1.3424 from late Monday’s $1.3337.  Among other key pairs, the Australian dollar saw a sizeable drop to 90.84 U.S. cents from 91.22 U.S. cents. The British pound rose to $1.5679 from $1.5647 on Monday. On Tuesday, the ICE dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against six rivals, fell to 80.90 from 81.255 late Monday. The Japanese yen was slightly firmer, with the dollar slipping to ¥97.30 from ¥97.64 late Monday. (Market Watch) 

 

Commodities

Brent Slips Towards $109 On Fed Policy Concerns. Brent crude prices slipped towards $109 a barrel on uncertainty over when the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale back its commodities-friendly bond-buying programme, but unrest in Egypt and reduced Libyan oil product supply helped curtail the losses. Brent crude oil futures for October fell 69 cents to $109.21 a barrel by 0644 GMT, down more than $2 from a four-month peak of $111.53 hit  on August 15. U.S. crude  oil futures for September was down 77 cents to $106.33, after earlier falling to a session low of $106.01. (Reuters)

Gold Turns Higher As Dollar Down Ahead Of Fed Minutes. Gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar weakened and U.S. Treasury bond yields retreated on lingering uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve will reduce its economic stimulus program. Spot gold was up 0.5 % at $1,372.67 an ounce by 1:44 PM EDT (1744 GMT), rebounding $20 from its low of $1,352.20. Silver was down 0.4 % at $23.02 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.8 % to $1,514.24 an ounce, while palladium eased 0.3 % to $744.93 an ounce. (Reuters)

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