Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 2 Sept 2013

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Publish date: Mon, 02 Sep 2013, 10:08 AM

Asia

 Japan CPI Rises At Fastest Pace In 5 Years. Prices rose in Japan last month at their fastest pace for almost five years, data showed, offering hope for ending years of debilitating deflation that has stymied growth. The consumer price index (CPI), which measures a basket of everyday goods but excludes the volatile cost of fresh food, was up 0.7% from a year earlier, the biggest rise since a 1% increase in November 2008. The headline figure is good news for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has promised he will drag Japan out of its 15-year funk, lifting prices and wages to get the economy moving again. It is the second straight month of increases after a 0.4% rise in June, which marked the first gain in 14 months, according to the internal affairs ministry. Household spending in July rose a marginal 0.1% on year, with disposable income at wage-earning households up 0.4%. (AFP)

 China’s Economy Strengthens With Factory Gauge At 16-Month High. China’s economy is strengthening after a two-quarter slowdown, with a manufacturing gauge rising to a 16-month high in August as new orders jumped and overseas demand rebounded. The Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 51.0, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said yesterday in Beijing. HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics will today release the final reading of their gauge after a preliminary figure on Aug. 22 showed the biggest gain in three years. (Bloomberg)

 India's GDP Shows Continuing Slowdown. India's economy continues to slowdown according to the latest government figures. For the April-to-June quarter, it grew at a rate of 4.4%, compared with the same period in the previous year. It was a weaker performance than most economists had been expecting and was a slowdown from the first three months of the year, when growth was 4.8%. A contraction in mining and manufacturing activity was behind the slowdown. Friday's figures show the economy is now expanding at the slowest rate since 2009. (BBC)

 Indonesia, Pakistan Ink FTA. Trade between Indonesia and Pakistan is set to accelerate after the governments of both countries finally signed a long-awaited free trade agreement, according to a senior Indonesian official. "Today, a free trade agreement between Indonesia and Pakistan has been signed," Deputy Trade Minister Bayu Khrisnamurthi said last Friday, adding the agreement will be fully implemented soon. "From yesterday, trade between Indonesia and Pakistan opened up," he said. Bayu said the impact of the free trade agreement will be seen by the fourth quarter this year. "The immediate potential (trade) from the agreement in 2013 is around US$100 million to US$200 million (RM330 million to RM660 million)." That increase in trade will come from the palm oil, garments, paper products, footwear and coal sectors. (Business Times)

Americas

 Cooler Spending In U.S. Signals Slow Start For Quarter. Consumer spending cooled in July as income growth slowed, indicating the world’s largest economy was off to a slow start in the third quarter. Purchases rose 0.1 % after a 0.6 % June gain that was larger than previously estimated, according to Commerce Department data issued today in Washington. Other reports showed business activity picked up this month and consumer sentiment declined less than projected from July’s six-year high. (Bloomberg)

 Business Activity In U.S. Expands In August For Fourth Month. Business activity in the U.S. expanded in August for a fourth consecutive month, a sign that manufacturing is strong enough to support recovery in the world’s biggest economy. The MNI Chicago Report business barometer rose to 53, matching forecasts, after a reading of 52.3 in July. Numbers greater than 50 signal expansion. Estimates in a Bloomberg survey of 53 economists ranged from 51 to 55. The index averaged 54.6 in 2012 and 62.8 in 2011. (Bloomberg)

 Consumer Sentiment In U.S. Fell Less Than Forecast In August. Consumer confidence in the U.S. dropped in August from a six-year high as interest rates rose and tensions in the Middle East intensified. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment for this month fell to 82.1, a four-month low, from 85.1 in July, which was the highest since July 2007. Economists in a Bloomberg survey called for 80.5, according to the median projection after a preliminary reading of 80.0. (Bloomberg)

 Canada’s Second-Quarter Growth Slows To 1.7% Pace. Canada’s economic growth slowed in the second quarter as business investment and energy exports declined, cementing views that the central bank won’t raise interest rates for at least a year. Gross domestic product rose at a 1.7 % annualized pace from April to June, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa, while economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a 1.6 % rate. The quarter ended with a 0.5 % decline for June that was the biggest since March 2009, during the last recession. (Bloomberg)

 Brazil GDP Beats Expectations For Second Quarter. Brazil's economy grew by 3.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to official new state figures. The Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE) also said that the economy grew by 1.5% in the quarter from the previous one. That number was above economists' predictions of 0.9%. Finance Minister Guido Mantega earlier this month reduced 2013 growth targets to 2.5% from an already reduced 3.0%, and for 2014 down to 4.0% from 4.5%. The agricultural industry, which saw production surge 3.9%, was responsible for most of the growth in Latin America's biggest economy between April and June, following on from 9.7% growth in the first quarter. (BBC)

Europe

 Eurozone Jobless Rate 'Steady' But Still At Record. The eurozone's unemployment rate remained steady at its record 12.1% during July, official figures show. However, the total number of people out of work in the 17-nation area fell slightly, by 15,000 to 19.23 million. This was the second consecutive fall, after a drop of 35,000 in June, adding to hopes of overall economic improvement in the eurozone. In the wider European Union, the unemployment rate also remained unchanged, at 11%. (BBC)

 Euro-Area Economic Confidence Surges To 2-Year High. Economic confidence in the euro area soared to a two-year high in August as the currency bloc’s recovery gathered pace after it exited a record-long recession. An index of executive and consumer sentiment rose for a fourth month to 95.2 from 92.5 in July, the European Commission in Brussels said today. The increase exceeded economists’ forecasts for a reading of 93.8. Manufacturing, services, retail and consumer confidence all gained. (Bloomberg)

 Danish Economy Expands More Than Estimated As Exports Gain. Denmark’s economy expanded more than estimated in the second quarter, emerging from a recession, as exports rose after the euro area returned to growth. Gross domestic product rose 0.5 % from the first three months of 2013, Copenhagen-based Statistics Denmark said today. GDP was seen growing 0.2 % in a Bloomberg survey of five economists. The economy expanded an annual 0.4 %. First-quarter GDP shrank a revised 0.2 %, versus unchanged earlier, after a 0.7 % contraction in the fourth quarter. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

 Dollar Posts First Monthly Gain In Three. The U.S. dollar rose against rivals Friday and notched its third consecutive weekly gain after Syrian-related tensions weighed on risk appetite and aided the greenback. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the U.S. unit against six rivals, rose to 82.074 from 81.940 late Thursday, coming off an intraday high of 82.26. The index gained 0.9% this week and 0.8% in August. Among other major pairs, the euro bought $1.3215, less than Thursday’s level of $1.3242, and the British pound fell to $1.5488 from $1.55. Meanwhile, the dollar slipped against the Japanese yen, trading at ¥98.16, down from ¥98.23 late Thursday. The Australian dollar edged down to 89.03 U.S. cents from late Thursday’s 89.29 U.S. cents. The Indian rupee was a standout decliner this week, slammed as the dollar at one point was able to buy more than 68 rupees compared with around 63.35 the previous Friday. The dollar on Friday was at 65.705 rupees, less than 66.595 rupees late Thursday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 Brent Slips Below $114 As Syria Concerns Ease. Oil fell by more than 1 % on Friday, pushing Brent below $114 a barrel, as fears over supply disruptions in the Middle East eased slightly after Britain said it will not join any military action against Syria. Brent crude for October slid to a low of $113.63 a barrel and was down $1.25 at $113.91 by 0224 GMT, extending a 1.2 % fall on Thursday. U.S. crude for October delivery fell $1.50 a barrel to $107.30 after hitting a low of $106.75. (Reuters)

 Gold Drops Below $1,400, Set For Second Straight Monthly Gain. Gold slid below $1,400 an ounce on Friday as the dollar rallied to a four-week high, with investors squaring positions at the end of the month and cashing in on a recent run-up ahead of a long U.S. holiday weekend. Spot gold eased 0.93 % to $1,394.51 an ounce by 3:19 EDT (1919 GMT) after slipping to a session low of $1,392.06 an ounce. Silver was down 1.72 % at $23.42 an ounce, for a monthly loss of 1.3 %. Spot platinum rose to $1,517.24 an ounce and jumped 6.1 % in August. Spot palladium fell 2.04 % to $719 an ounce, down 0.9% for the month. (Reuters)

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