Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 10 Sep 2013

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Publish date: Tue, 10 Sep 2013, 09:41 AM

Malaysia

 Retail Growth In Q2 Slowed, But 2013 To Better 2012. Retail research firm, Retail Group Malaysia, said the country’s retail industry recorded a lower-than-expected growth rate of 4.6% in retail sales in the second quarter ended June 2013, but said things should pick up in the two remaining quarters. Growth rate for the retail sector for the whole year is expected to come in at 6.2% compared to 5.5% in 2012. According to the research firm’s August report, the results for the latest quarter was 40% lower than the 7.7% estimated by retailers from the Malaysia Retailers Association (MRA), as well as its own estimate of 6.5%. “This quarterly growth rate is also lower than the growth rates of the second quarter (5.9%) of 2012 and the first quarter (7.5%) of 2013,” the report noted. (The Star)

Asia

 Japan's Economic Growth Data Revised Higher. Japan has revised up its growth data for the April to June quarter, adding to hopes of an economic recovery. The economy expanded 0.9% during the period, compared to the previous three months. That translates into an annualised growth of 3.8%. The initial estimate of quarter-on-quarter growth was 0.6%. Japan has taken aggressive measures in recent months to spur growth in the world's third-biggest economy, after years of stagnation. (BBC)

 China Among World's Top Three Investors In 2012: Govt. China became one of the world's top three investors for the first time last year as its foreign investment soared to a new record, the government said Monday. The Asian giant's overseas direct investment rose 17.6% last year from 2011 to US$87.8 billion, according to a statement jointly released by the Ministry of Commerce, the National Bureau of Statistics and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Globally, outbound direct investment fell 17%, it said, and the contrasting developments made China one of the world's top three investors, said the statement. Last year's increase represented an acceleration from 8.5% in 2011, when the global economic recovery was weak in the face of continuing financial turmoil in Europe and the United States. (AFP)

 China Inflation Stays Subdued As Producer-Price Drop Eases. China’s consumer inflation stayed below target for an eighth month while factory-gate prices fell by the least in six months, reflecting an economic pickup that leaves room for officials to add stimulus if needed. The consumer-price index rose 2.6 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today in Beijing, matching the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The producer-price index dropped 1.6 percent in August, the 18th straight decline, after July’s 2.3 percent decrease. (Bloomberg)

North America

 US Consumer Borrowing Hits Record High. Americans cut back on using their credit cards in July for the second straight month, while taking on more debt to buy cars and attend school. The Federal Reserve says consumers increased their borrowing $10.4 billion in July from June to a record high of $2.85 trillion. That followed an $11.9 billion gain in June. A measure of borrowing that includes credit card debt fell $1.8 billion in July following an even larger $3.7 billion decline in June. A category that includes auto loans and student loans increased $12.3 billion after an even larger $15.6 billion gain in June. (AP)

 Canada Building Permits Rise To Record On Commercial Work. Canadian building permits rose to a record in July as the value of projects such as shopping malls and office buildings almost doubled, government figures showed. The value of municipal permits rose 20.7 percent to C$7.99 billion ($7.70 billion), Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The gain exceeded all 10 forecasts in a Bloomberg economist survey that had a median increase of 3.5 percent. (Bloomberg)

Europe

 Euro Zone Sentiment Turns Positive For First Time In Over 2 Years. Euro zone sentiment turned positive for the first time in more than two years in September as investors welcomed the end of the bloc's recession and became increasingly upbeat about their current situation and outlook, a survey showed on Monday. Sentix research group said its index tracking investor sentiment in the euro zone swung to 6.5 points, its highest level since May 2011, from -4.9 points in August. The reading, which beat a Reuters poll for a rise to -2.8, was the first one in positive territory since July 2011. (Reuters)  UK Economy Is Turning Corner, George Osborne Says. The UK economy is "turning a corner", Chancellor George Osborne has said in a speech in London. Mr Osborne cited "tentative signs of a balanced, broad based and sustainable recovery", but stressed it was still the "early stages" and "plenty of risks" remained. Mr Osborne said that recent months - which have seen more upbeat reports on the economy - had "decisively ended" questions about his economic policy. Revised gross domestic product figures showed the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter of the year, with predictions it could reach 1% for the third quarter. And last week the OECD economic agency sharply increased its growth forecast for the UK economy this year to 1.5% from an earlier estimate of 0.8%. (BBC)

Currencies

 Dollar Falls; Aussie At More Than One-Month High. The U.S. dollar declined modestly against major rivals on Monday in a continued reaction to the August jobs report. The British pound rose to $1.5701 in recent trade, up from $1.5627 late Friday. The euro increased to $1.3260, up from late Friday’s $1.3177. The Australian dollar rose to 92.28 U.S. cents, its highest level since late July, according to FactSet data. The Aussie traded at 91.86 U.S. cents late Friday. The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s strength against six rivals, fell to 81.791 from 82.206 late Friday in North America. In other currency action, the Japanese yen moved lower, with the dollar rising to ¥99.59 from ¥99.09 Friday, after the pair breached the ¥100 at one point Monday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 Brent Falls Below $116 After 2-Day Gains. Brent crude futures eased in early Asian trade on Monday as investors took profits following gains of 1 % in the last two sessions on the back of uncertainty over a possible U.S. military strike against Syria. London Brent crude for October delivery was down 24 cents at $115.88 a barrel by 0039 GMT, after settling up 86 cents on Friday. The contract touched $116.56 on Friday, the highest since Aug. 29. NYMEX crude for October delivery was down 26 cents at $110.27 a barrel. It settled up $2.16 at $110.53 on Friday, its highest close since May 3, 2011. (Reuters)

 Gold Drops On Fed Tapering Talk, US Equities Rally. Gold fell on Monday, surrendering some of the gains made in the previous session, on market expectations that the Federal Reserve may taper its monetary stimulus. Spot gold was down 0.3 % at $1,386.36 an ounce by 2:48 p.m. EDT (1848 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver fell 0.7 % to $23.65 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.7 % at $1,479 an ounce and palladium dropped 2.2 % to $682.22 an ounce. (Reuters)

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