Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 12 Sep 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 12 Sep 2013, 10:52 AM

Malaysia

 Production In July Increased By 7.6% YoY following a revised growth of 3.7% in June (3.3% previously), making it the strongest expansion seen in 14 months. On a monthly comparison, it expanded by 2.3% MoM. On better gauge at growth trajectory, by using the 3-month moving average (3mm) to remove seasonal factors, overall production gained 4.8% YoY compared to 3.9% in June. Average production for the first seven months of the year grew by 2.7% YoY compared to 4.5% in the same period in 2012. (Please refer to Economic Viewpoint for further comments)

 Zeti: Malaysia’s Household Debt Has Not Reached Alarming Levels. Malaysia’s household debt has not reached alarming levels, said Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz. Currently, the country’s household debt stood at about 83% of gross domestic product. “If we look at the non-performing loans, it is less than 2% for the household sector. So in other words all those who had borrowed are creditworthy. “We have taken the necessary measures – micro-prudential measures - to rein excessive lending activities. We believe at this point it is contained, and we have seen the loan growth that is from 13% growth to a more sustainable growth of 9%,” she added. (The Star)

Asia Pacific

 Singapore Announces Lending Curbs Amid Rising Debt. Singapore has announced new rules to cap credit card and other forms of unsecured lending by banks, amid growing concerns about rising household debt in Asia by consumers once known for their thrift. In Singapore, the changes to the rules on unsecured lending will to be implemented in stages from Dec 1, and they include limiting the total amount of unsecured loans an individual can take to 12 times that person’s monthly income. The changes are “aimed at improving lending practices by financial institutions and enabling individuals to make better borrowing decisions”, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in a statement. Singapore, which has a population of 5.3 million, had 9.3 million credit cards in circulation at the end of 2012, up from 8.3 million at the end of the previous year. Banks wrote off S$226.6mil in bad debt last year, an increase of 21% from S$186.7mil at end-2011. (Reuters)

 Li Keqiang: China Economy At Crucial Stage. China's economy is going through a "crucial" stage of restructuring, says the country's Premier, Li Keqiang. At the World Economic Forum in the Chinese port city of Dalian, Mr Li pledged to improve relations with foreign firms. He stressed that multinationals would get "equal treatment" with state-owned enterprises. He added that China was wellplaced to hit a growth target of 7.5% this year, despite a "complex" economic climate. China posted its lowest growth in two decades for the second quarter of 2013, and there had been some concerns that the world's second-largest economy might be headed for a so-called "hard landing". However, Mr Li sought to allay those fears by saying the Chinese economy was stable and had strong fundamentals. (BBC)

 RBNZ Signals 2014 Interest Rate Rise As Inflation Picks Up. New Zealand’s central bank said it expects to raise interest rates next year as the economy strengthens and inflation picks up. The currency rose. “Rate increases will likely be required next year,” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler said in a statement in Wellington today after leaving the official cash rate at 2.5 %, a record low. At the same time, restrictions on low-deposit home lending will mean rates rising less than they otherwise would have, and “we expect to keep the cash rate unchanged in 2013,” Wheeler said. (Bloomberg)

USA

 Wholesale Inventories In U.S. Rose Less Than Forecast In July. Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose less than forecast in July as demand cooled. The 0.1 % increase in the value of unsold goods was the first in four months and followed a 0.2 % drop in June, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 26 economists called for a 0.3 % gain. Sales also rose 0.1 % after a 0.4 % advance. (Bloomberg)

Europe

 UK Unemployment Rate Drops To 7.7%. The rate of unemployment in the UK dropped to 7.7% between May and July from 7.8% in the previous three months. The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has said that interest rates are unlikely to be raised before the rate falls to 7%. The number of people unemployed fell 24,000 in the period to 2.487 million. The official figures also showed the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance fell 32,600 to 1.402 million, its lowest level since February 2009. (BBC)

 France Cuts Forecasts For Growth, Budget Shortfalls. France cut its forecast for growth next year to 0.9 % on Wednesday and said its public deficit would fall more slowly than previously expected as a result. Presenting headline figures for the 2014 budget, Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said the government now targets a deficit of 4.1 % of national output this year, up from an earlier forecast of 3.7 %, and 3.6 % next year, up from an initially projected 2.9 %. (Reuters)

Currencies

 Dollar Down As Pound Hits Seven-Month High. The British pound rose to its highest level against the dollar in more than seven months after better-than-expected U.K. unemployment data stoked speculation the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates sooner than has been laid out in its guidance. The pound rose to $1.5823, the highest level since Jan. 31, according to FactSet data, from $1.5729 in late trade Tuesday. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against six rivals, slipped to 81.517 from 81.817 late Tuesday. Among other majors, the euro traded at $1.3308, up from $1.3267 late Tuesday, while the dollar fell to 99.95 Japanese yen from ¥100.33. In other action, the Australian dollar traded at 93.30 U.S. cents, the highest level since mid-June, up slightly from 93.09 U.S. cents the prior day. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 Oil Edges Higher As U.S. Pursues Diplomacy For Syria. Crude oil prices edged up in choppy trading on Wednesday as investors worried about whether diplomatic efforts to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons would avert military action that could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East. Brent crude oil futures rose 25 cents to settle at $111.50. In the past two days, Brent fell more than 4%. On Tuesday, it dropped to a two-week low. U.S. crude oil for October delivery rose 17 cents to settle at $107.56 a barrel. (Reuters)

 Gold Slips As Syria Worries Ease, Fed In Focus. Gold was lower near midday on Wednesday, after hitting a three-week low early, pressured by an easing of tensions with Syria and by worries the U.S. Federal Reserve may scale back its monetary stimulus. Spot gold inched down 30 cents to $1,363.29 by 1:40 p.m. EDT (1740 GMT), having earlier fell to its lowest since Aug. 22 at $1,356.85 an ounce. Among other precious metals, silver, which fell to a three-week low of $22.75 an ounce earlier, rebounded 0.8 % to $23.12. Platinum rose 0.1 % to $1,469.49 an ounce, while palladium dropped 0.4 % to $688.47 an ounce. (Reuters)

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