Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 23 Sep 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 23 Sep 2014, 09:35 AM

Malaysia

Malaysia Ranks 3rd In Global Offshoring Destinations. A.T Kearney has ranked Malaysia in third place after India and China in the 2014 Global Services Location Index (GSLI) for offshoring destination of choice. Although Malaysia was hindered by relatively smaller labour pool, it had competitive advantages in terms of political stability and multilingual environment, it said in a statement. A.T Kearney Malaysia Partner and managing director, Joon Ooi said India had financial attractiveness that was hard to beat and both India and China have a much larger qualified labour pool. GSLI measures underlying fundamentals of 51 countries based on metrics organised into three major categories namely financial attractiveness, people skills and availability, and business environment. Southeast Asia displayed a strong performance with Malaysia (3rd), Indonesia (5th), Thailand (6th), Philippines (7th) and Vietnam (12th) in the top 15 of the ranking. (Bernama)

Asia

OECD Says BOJ Inflation Goal Hard To Meet, Needs New Commitment. The Bank of Japan must make a new commitment quickly to meet its 2% inflation target because achieving that goal by next spring will be difficult, a senior official at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Monday. "We assume (Japan's consumer inflation) won't hit 2% in a stable manner in the spring of 2015, so the BOJ should commit to maintaining monetary easing beyond that as early as possible, considering the next tax hike in October 2015," Tamaki said. The BOJ unleashed an intense burst of monetary stimulus in April 2013, pledging to double base money, to achieve the 2% goal in roughly two years. It has stood pat since then, sounding confident that the economy is on track. (Reuters)

Taiwan August Export Orders Slower, But Smartphone Sales Raise Hopes. Taiwan's export order growth was below forecast in August, but prospects in coming months will be helped by solid demand for tech goods, especially as Apple's newest iPhone hits the market. Taiwan's export orders last month reached $38.21b, mostly flat compared to the value in July. But the year-on-year growth rate at 5.2% came in below a Reuters poll of economists who forecast a median 7.4% growth. Among the categories, orders for electronic products in August grew 12.6% from a year earlier, while those for machinery rose a stronger 17.4%. (Reuters)

Thailand Still Sees 1.5% GDP Growth. Thailand’s economy is expected to grow at close to the central bank’s forecast of 1.5% this year as improved consumption helps offset weak exports and tourism, while monetary policy is still accommodative, the central bank governor said. Export growth this year is expected to be less than the central bank’s estimate of 3%, Bank of Thailand governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul told reporters. The central bank is due to release new economic projections on Friday. Prasarn also said that the current policy rate, now at 2.0%, was still supportive of the economic recovery and that the Thai economy was strong enough to withstand any interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve. (Reuters)

Americas

Sales Of Existing U.S. Homes Decrease On Fewer Investors. A decrease in investor purchases prompted an unexpected decline in sales of U.S. existing homes in August, indicating the housing rebound is not yet self-sustaining. Purchases of previously owned houses dropped 1.8% to a 5.05 million annual pace from a 5.14 million rate in July, the National Association of Realtors reported today in Washington. The share of properties sold to investors was the lowest in almost five years, the group said. (Bloomberg)

Obama Announces Us Crackdown On Inversion Tax 'Loophole'. The White House has announced a crackdown on tax avoidance deals known as inversions. The practice involves a US firm merging with a firm in a country with a lower tax rate and has become popular over recent years. But President Barack Obama said new treasury department measures would make inversions less attractive. Those include making it more difficult for an inverted company to access money made outside the US. (BBC)

Brazil Government Lowers 2014 Growth Forecast To 0.9% From 1.8%. Brazil’s government lowered its growth estimate and maintained its inflation forecast for 2014 after the economy slipped into recession during the first six months of the year. Gross domestic product will expand 0.9%, compared with July’s estimate of 1.80%, the country’s Planning Ministry said today in a report published on its website. Annual inflation will reach 6.2% at year-end, unchanged from the previous estimate. (Bloomberg)

Europe

ECB's Draghi Says Ready To Use More Unconventional Tools. Draghi said the euro zone central bank's Governing Council "remains fully determined to counter risks to the medium-term outlook for inflation". "Therefore, we stand ready to use additional unconventional instruments within our mandate, and alter the size and/or the composition of our unconventional interventions should it become necessary to further address risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation," Draghi said. The ECB would closely monitor risks to inflation, he added. He said the 82.6b euros taken by 255 banks last Thursday was "within the range of take-up values we had expected" and noted that banks will have another opportunity to use up their TLTRO initial allowance in December. (Reuters)

Bundesbank Says German Economy Robust But Cautions On August. Germany's economy remains robust, the country's central bank said on Monday, predicting a generally positive end to the year despite a slowdown so far. In its monthly report for September, the Bundesbank said German industry had been given a boost in July by the fact that there were fewer school holidays during that month. August, it said, however, would see the opposite. "The economic prospects for Germany have become duller since the middle of this year," officials write in the report, citing 'geopolitical tensions', a reference to the conflict in Ukraine that has already hit business confidence. "Nevertheless, the general economic trend should stay positive despite the slowdown in the speed of expansion in the first half of 2014." (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Jumps Vs Aussie But Flat Against Major Currencies. The dollar rose smartly on Monday against the Australian dollar and emerging market currencies hurt by weaker commodity prices, but was little changed against other major currencies after 10 weeks of gains by the dollar index. The dollar index, a basket of six leading currencies traded against the dollar, wobbled around unchanged. It was last up 0.01% after briefly touching a high last seen during July 2010. The euro, which traded at nearly $1.40 in May, was up 0.03% against the dollar at $1.283 in late trading after touching a high of $1.2867. The Japanese yen was up 0.15% against the dollar at 108.86 yen to the dollar. The Australian dollar touched a seven-month low of $0.8854 against the U.S. dollar. Canada's dollar also weakened on lower commodity prices, with the Loony last off 0.6% against the U.S. dollar at $1.103. The Brazilian real was down 1.1%. (Reuters)

Commodities

Oil Prices Fall On Sluggish Demand, Ample Supply. Crude oil futures fell on Monday as ample supply and slowing economic growth in Europe and China outweighed expectations of a cut in oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Brent crude for November delivery fell $1.42 to settle at $96.97 a barrel, having dropped $2.01 intraday to $96.38. The expiring U.S. October crude contract fell 89 cents to settle and go off the board at $91.52 a barrel, down for a fourth consecutive session. U.S. November crude settled at $90.87, down 78 cents. (Reuters)

Gold, Silver End Flat After Sliding Early On Technicals. Gold prices inched up on Monday on short-covering after a dollar rise and technical selling sent the precious metal to its weakest since early January earlier in the day. Spot gold touched a low of $1,208.36 an ounce, then inched up 0.1% to $1,216.89 by 2:04 p.m. EDT (1804 GMT). Silver hit $17.30 an ounce, its lowest since June 2010, as a broad retreat led by copper weighed on expected industrial demand for the white metal, analysts said. Among other precious metals, spot platinum was down 0.7% at $1,323.30 an ounce, while spot palladium was down 1.5% to $791.80 an ounce. (Reuters)

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