Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 10 Oct 2014

kiasutrader
Publish date: Fri, 10 Oct 2014, 09:42 AM

Global

World Bank Launches Public-Private Infrastructure Plan. The World Bank on Thursday launched a new initiative that would bring together governments, development institutions and private investors to form public-private partnerships for infrastructure. The initiative, known as the Global Infrastructure Facility, would structure projects to attract long-term investors such as pension funds and insurance companies in order to meet the developing world's $1 trillion in infrastructure needs over the next six years. "We have several trillions of dollars in assets represented today looking for long-term, sustainable and stable investments," World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said. "The real challenge is not a matter of money but a lack of bankable projects – a sufficient supply of commercially viable and sustainable infrastructure investments." (Reuters)

Asia

Japan Machinery Orders Rise, But Economy Concerns Linger. Japan's leading gauge of capital spending rose for a third straight month in August, in a tentative sign firms are investing their profits in plants and equipment that could bolster growth in the world's third-largest economy. Cabinet Office data showed core machinery orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as a key gauge of capital spending in six to nine months, rose 4.7% in August from the prior month, much faster than a 0.9% gain expected by analysts. (Reuters)

Thailand Cuts Growth Forecast. Thailand’s Finance Ministry yesterday cut its 2014 economic growth forecast to 1.7%, one-third of what it projected a year ago, due to the country’s still-weak exports and investment. A series of economic problems, some worsened by months of political unrest, have made the ministry as well as Thailand’s central bank steadily cut forecasts for this year. The ministry’s forecast remains higher than the latest one from the central bank, for 1.5% growth, and well above those of many private economists. (Reuters)

USA

Jobless Claims In U.S. Fall, With Average At Eight-Year Low. A healthier job market helped spark the biggest gain in Americans’ confidence in almost a year, raising prospects for the economy at the start of fourth quarter. The number of people seeking jobless benefits at state employment agencies averaged 287,750 in the four weeks ended Oct. 4, an eightyear low, according to figures today from the Labor Department in Washington. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Grow More Than Expected. U.S. wholesale inventories rose by the most in four months in August, a sign the U.S. economy may have grown more than expected in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said on Thursday wholesale inventories increased 0.7% during the month after a 0.3% gain in July, which was larger than initially estimated. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a smaller increase in August. (Reuters)

Europe

ECB's Draghi Says Expects Lending To Pick Up Soon In 2015. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Thursday he expects bank lending, a key impediment to growth in the euro zone at the moment, to pick up early next year. The ECB is putting the euro zone's 131 largest banks through a thorough balance sheet review to weed out soured loans and check whether they have valued assets correctly before it takes over as their new centralized supervisor in November. The clean up will put banks in a better position to lend, which is important for the recovery in the euro zone that relies strongly on bank funding. (Reuters)

German Exports In Sharp August Fall As Economy Falters. German exports fell sharply in August as later school holiday schedules and uncertainty over Ukraine combined to produce the largest monthly drop in five years. Exports fell 5.8% compared with July, German's Federal Statistical Office reported, while imports fell 1.3%. Its trade surplus shrank to €17.5bn as as result. The fact that German summer holidays occurred in August instead of July contributed to the economic slowdown, the statistics office explained. While exports to the European Union rose by 2%, exports to countries outside Europe dived 4.7%. (BBC)

UK Interest Rates Remain At Record Low Of 0.5%. The Bank of England has held UK interest rates at a record low of 0.5%. It has also decided not to extend its quantitative easing programme, designed to stimulate lending in the economy, beyond the £375bn already spent. Rates have been at 0.5% since March 2009, with the market expecting a small rise early next year. (BBC)

Greek Unemployment Eases To 26.4% In July. Greece's jobless rate eased to 26.4% in July from 26.7% in June, Greek statistics agency ELSTAT said on Thursday. July's reading was the lowest since December 2012 when unemployment stood at the same level. The record high was set in September 2013, when unemployment reached 27.9%. At more than double the euro zone average of 11.5% in July, Greece's unemployment rate remains near record highs despite signs of recovery in the economy, which is projected to emerge from recession and expand by 0.6% this year. (Reuters)

Bad Loans At Italy Banks Up 20% In August To Record High. The Bank of Italy said on Thursday bad loans in the country rose 20% year-on-year in August reaching a new record high as the third-largest economy in the euro zone struggles to recover from recession. The loans that are least likely to be repaid were worth 173.9b euros ($222b) in August, the highest level since the start of the current statistical series in 1998, central bank data showed. In July, non-performing loans rose 20.5% to 172.4b euros. At the same time, lending to companies and families continued to contract, with loans to households down 0.8% in August after falling 0.7% a month earlier. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Falls To 3-Week Low Vs Yen On Rate View; Euro Slides. The dollar tumbled to a three-week low against the yen on Thursday as investors continued to pare back bullish bets on the greenback after minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting pushed out expectations on when interest rates will begin to rise. The dollar, which has a strong correlation with U.S. yields and rate expectations, fell 0.3% against the yen, to 107.78 yen, trimming losses after the jobless claims data. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, slid initially, hitting a two-week low of 84.937, before reversing course. It was last up 0.3% at 85.533. With the dollar coming under pressure, the euro earlier rose to $1.2791, its highest level in two weeks, and nearly 3 cents above a two-year trough near $1.2500 set last week. But in late trading, the euro fell 0.4% to $1.2686. (Reuters)

Commodities

Brent Drops Below $90; Worry Over Global Economy, Supply. Brent broke below $90 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since the summer of 2012, joining a rout in U.S. crude and gasoline prices as sinking stock prices, Europe's worsening outlook and surging oil inventories hammered energy markets. Brent's front-month fell by $1.33 to settle at $90.05, its lowest settlement since June 2012. It continued to plunge in post-settlement trading, touching $89.14. Reuters charts showed potential support for Brent at a December 2010 low of $85.41. Front-month WTI settled at $85.81, its lowest settlement since December 2012, and continued to fall in post-settlement trading to a low of $85.02. (Reuters)

Gold Rises To 2-Week High As Equities Slide On Growth Fears. Gold rose to a two-week high on Thursday, extending its daily winning streak to four, as safe-haven buying increased after U.S. equities tumbled on concerns over the pace of economic growth. Spot gold rose to its highest since Sept. 23 at $1,233.20 an ounce early on Thursday and was trading up 0.3% at $1,225.10 by 2:13 p.m. EDT (1813 GMT). Silver rose 0.3% to $17.39 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.1% at $1,272.25 an ounce, while palladium dropped 0.6% to $794.72 an ounce. (Reuters)

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