Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 17 Oct 2014

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Publish date: Fri, 17 Oct 2014, 09:40 AM

Malaysia

September Vehicle Sales Fall 6.6% On-Month. Malaysia’s total industry vehicles sales fell 6.6% to 47,771 units in September from a month ago as consumers held back their purchases ahead of the launch of Proton’s Iriz and Perodua’s Axia. The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) said on Thursday the decline was also due to consumers’ wait-and-see attitude pending the announcement of the 2015 Budget proposals on Oct 10. The MAA said when compared with a year ago, sales volume was down 13% to 47,771 units compared with 54,945 units. On the outlook for October, the MAA said sales were expected to be higher than September due to the delivery of Perodua Axia and Proton Iriz cars. However, consumers were expected to face stricter requirements when applying for hire-purchase loans, it added. (The Star)

Japanese Investors Lap Up Malaysian Debt To Record Level. Japan's purchases of Malaysian debt have hit record levels this year as investors with cheap yen hunt for assets that offer investment grade ratings, low volatility and decent returns. Data from the Bank of Japan and Toushin Investment Trusts Association tells of a jump in Japanese flows into Malaysian bonds and a shift away from South Korea where they have traditionally been big buyers. Based on data currently available, net inflows of yen investments in Malaysia from January to July were 173.5b yen ($1.63b). Toushin holdings, which are mainly retail Japanese investments, have jumped 20.9b yen so far in 2014 to a total 47.48b yen at the end of August. Korean debt markets have seen net outflows of Japanese investment, totalling 135b yen in the first eight months of the year. Indonesia has received just 31.5b yen in that period while Thailand received 55b yen. (The Star)

Asia

China September Data Shows Loan Recovery But Weak Investment, Forex Outflows Cloud Picture. China's banks increased lending in September, supporting Beijing's efforts to guide capital into the struggling economy, but foreign investment remained weak and foreign exchange reserve data showed signs of potential capital flight. New yuan loans in September came in at 857.2b yuan($140.00b), exceeding a Reuters poll handily, while broad money supply rose 12.9%, in line with forecasts. China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, fell slightly to $3.89 trillion at the end of September from $3.99 trillion at the end of June, central bank data showed. China drew $87.4b in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first nine months of 2014, down 1.4% from a year earlier, marking the third consecutive month of net decline, but monthly investment recovered slightly after a sharp drop in August. In September, China attracted $9.0b in FDI, up 1.9% from a year earlier, the ministry said. That compared with a 14% slide in August to $7.2b, a level not seen since February 2012. (Reuters)

China Overseas Investment Hits US$9.79b. China’s overseas investment almost doubled year-on-year to US$9.79b (RM32.28b) in September, the government said yesterday, again exceeding incoming funds even though they recovered from multi-year lows. Foreign direct investment (FDI) — which excludes financial sectors — into China came in at US$9.01b for the month, the commerce ministry said, up only 1.9% year-on-year but a significant improvement on August’s US$7.20b, which was the lowest since July 2010. (AFP)

USA

Jobless Claims In U.S. Unexpectedly Decrease To 14-Year Low. Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped last week to their lowest level in 14 years as employers avoided trimming staff even as global growth weakens. Jobless claims decreased by 23,000 to 264,000 in the week ended Oct. 11, the fewest since April 2000 and lower than any projection in the Bloomberg survey of economists, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. There was nothing unusual in the data and no states were estimated, a spokesman said as the figures were released. (Reuters)

Factory Production Rebounds As U.S. Sustains Expansion. Production at American factories rebounded, claims for jobless benefits fell to a 14-year low and households held the most optimistic views in two years, signs the world’s largest economy is overcoming a global slowdown. Manufacturing output climbed 0.5% in September, springing back from a 0.5% drop the prior month, as factories pushed out more computers, appliances and building-supplies, according to Federal Reserve data issued today in Washington. (Reuters)

U.S. Foreclosure Activity Falls To Eight-Year Low. Foreclosure activity across the United States declined last month to the lowest level since July 2006, as banks reclaimed fewer homes, according to a report released on Thursday. RealtyTrac, which tracks housing market data, reported foreclosure filings for 106,866 properties across the country, an 8.6% decrease from August and a 18.6% drop from a year earlier. September was the 48th consecutive month of year-on-year declines in overall foreclosure activity, which includes foreclosure notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions. (Reuters)

Foreign Investors Buy Long-Term U.S. Assets In August. Foreigners added to their long-term U.S. securities in August by the most since February, snapping two months of net sales of such U.S. assets, data from the U.S. Treasury Department showed on Thursday. Net purchases of long-term U.S. assets totaled $52.1b in August after net sales of $18.6b in July and $18.7b in June. It was the largest monthly addition to their holdings since a $90.3b increase in February. (Reuters)

Europe

Deflation Stalks Europe's Periphery As Inflation Hits Five-Year Low. Deflation hit five peripheral euro zone countries in September as inflation slipped to its lowest for five years and exports faltered, data on Thursday showed, offering little hope that the bloc will avoid its third recession in six years. While consumer inflation at 0.3% was unchanged from Eurostat's Sept. 30 estimate and met market expectations, Greece, Spain, Italy, Slovenia and Slovakia showed deflation in the month on persistently depressed household demand. With such a minimal cushion against deflation, calls on the European Central Bank to consider U.S.-style bond-buying, or quantitative easing, are likely to intensify. (Reuters)

Fitch Places EU Rescue Fund On Rating Watch Negative Over France Worries. Fitch Ratings agency on Wednesday put the EU's €500bil bailout fund on review for a possible downgrade, triggered by concerns over France's battle to tame a ballooning budget deficit. The agency said in a statement that it had placed a "rating watch negative" on the "AAA" score of the European Stability Mechanism – a US$650bil fund set up during the eurozone crisis to bail out troubled countries and their banks. The move comes a day after Fitch placed a rating watch negative on France's 'AA+' score. (AFP)

Currencies

Dollar Stages Recovery Against Yen, Euro. The dollar recovered against the yen and euro, but remained lower against most other rivals in relatively muted afternoon for currency traders on Thursday. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index a measure of the greenback’s strength against six rival currencies, traded at 84.9530 Thursday, compared to 85.1470 late Wednesday. Trade in the euro Thursday was choppy, with the shared currency rising from $1.2770 to as high as $1.2835, before falling back to trade at $1.2804 Thursday afternoon, compared to $1.2816 late Wednesday. The pound moved steadily higher against the dollar Thursday, trading at $1.6091, from $1.5989 late Wednesday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Sinks To Four-Year Low Below $83 As Economic Worries Mount. Oil fell more than $1 a barrel on Thursday to a four-year low below $83 a barrel as growing concerns over the global economy stretched a four-month rout. Brent crude for November delivery had dropped to $82.72 a barrel, the lowest since November 2010 and was down 62 cents at $83.16 a barrel by 5:14 a.m. EDT. U.S. crude fell $1.01 to $80.77 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Flat, Supported By Slowdown Worries; Outlook Seen Weak. Gold prices were steady on Thursday, supported by renewed worries about a global economic slowdown, but bullion's failure to rally at a time of extreme volatility in equity and energy markets suggested the metal could pull back in the near term. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,239.61 an ounce at 1:40 p.m. EDT (1740 GMT), trading in a narrow range of less than $10. Among other precious metals, spot platinum fell 0.6% to $1,246.50 an ounce, briefly trading at parity with gold. Spot palladium reached an eight-month low of $725.10 an ounce. It was last down 2.9% at $741.10. Silver was up 1 cent at $17.41 an ounce. (Reuters)

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