Global

· Europeans Defy U.S. to Join China-Led Development Bank. France, Germany and Italy have all agreed to follow Britain’s lead and join a China-led international development bank, according to European officials, delivering a blow to US efforts to keep leading western countries out of the new institution. The decision by the three European governments comes after Britain announced last week that it would join the $50bn Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a potential rival to the Washington-based World Bank. Australia, a key US ally in the Asia-Pacific region which had come under pressure from Washington to stay out of the new bank, has also said that it will now rethink that position. (Financial Times)

· Global Recovery Fragile, India a Bright Spot - Lagarde. The global recovery is "too slow, too brittle and too lopsided", the head of the International Monetary Fund said in India on Monday, describing Asia's third-largest economy as a rare bright spot on a cloudy global horizon. In a speech in New Delhi, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that monetary policy in the world's leading economies was out of step and, even if well managed, could cause "excessive volatility" in international financial markets. "Looking ahead, something better may yet come on the back of low oil prices and interest rates," Lagarde said in a speech to women students. "Still, there are significant risks to this fragile global recovery." The first of those was what Lagarde called "asynchronous monetary policy" in advanced economies, with the United States and Britain normalizing their stances while the euro area and Japan increase their monetary stimulus. (Reuters)

Malaysia

· Probability of Ringgit Manipulation Small - Najib. The probability of an individual to influence the value of the ringgit aimed at sabotaging the country's economy is small as the average daily activity for the ringgit involves a huge transaction. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak told the Dewan Rakyat that last year the average daily activity for the ringgit amounted to US$11.8 billion (RM43.71 billion). "Based on such a huge transaction, the probability for an individual to influence the value of the ringgit is very small," he said in a written reply to a question from Lim Lip Eng (DAP-Segambut) which was distributed at Parliament lobby here today. (Bernama)

Asia

· Indonesia Exports in Biggest Fall in 2.5 Years, Trade Balance in Surplus. Indonesia's February exports fell the most in 2.5 years, hit by sliding oil and gas shipments, but a big fall in imports helped achieve a trade surplus for the third straight month. Weak global oil and commodities prices have hit Southeast Asia's largest economy, while a falling rupiah has yet to give exports a boost, although dampening domestic consumption. February exports dropped 16.02% on a yearly basis, the largest fall since August 2012, statistics bureau data showed on Monday. Imports declined 16.24%. A poll had forecast a 7.60% fall in exports and a 6.80% drop in imports. Despite the export fall, Bank Indonesia said there were signs of improvement, pointing to a surplus of $174 million in the oil and gas trade balance in February. (Reuters)

· China's Jan-Feb Fiscal Income Growth Cools as Economy Slows. Growth in China's fiscal revenue cooled to its slowest in at least a year between January and February as China's foundering economy dampened tax collection and other key sources of government income. Fiscal revenue rose 3.2% to 2.57 trillion yuan ($410.5 billion) in the first two months of the year, data from the Finance Ministry showed on Monday. That was far less than an average 8.6% gain in fiscal income seen in 2014, and the slackest pace seen in at least a year. Indeed, a breakdown of the figures showed taxes collected from the real estate sector fell 1.6% to 96.5 billion yuan in the first two months of the year as China's housing industry stumbled. (Reuters)

· India's Wholesale Prices Fall 2.06% Year-on-Year in February. India's wholesale prices declined at a much faster-thanexpected pace of 2.06% on year in February, their fourth straight monthly fall, on the back of plunging global oil prices, government data showed on Monday. The data compared with a 0.70% year-on-year fall forecast by economists and a provisional 0.39% decline in January. The reading for December wholesale price inflation was revised to an annual fall of 0.50% from a gain of 0.11% earlier. (Reuters)

· Japan's Production Sites Busiest in Year. The index for the utilization rate of production facilities across Japan rose to its highest level in a year in January, as a recovery in exports spurred greater production of machinery and electronic goods. The monthly index, compiled by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry taking the 2010 average as the baseline, rose 3.6% between December and January to 105.5. Total utilization in 2010 averaged 76.7%, which means the figure for January came to about 81%. The utilization index for makers of general-purpose, production and business-oriented machinery gained 6.5% in January to 131.8, recovering to about the same level as in July 2008 before the financial crisis. Figures compiled by the Cabinet Office show machinery orders from abroad rose 17.9% in 2014, boosting production at these businesses. The index for electronic parts and devices jumped 6.6%, reaching the same level as in March 2008. Exports to the rest of Asia, where smartphone production is booming, have been strong. (Nikkei)

USA

· Weak U.S. Factory Data Suggest Softer Economic Growth. U.S. manufacturing output fell in February for the third straight month as the production of automobiles and a range of goods tumbled, the latest indication of slower economic growth in the first quarter. Activity has softened in recent months, constrained by a harsh winter, strong dollar and lower crude prices, which have forced companies in the oil field to either postpone or cut back on capital expenditure projects. Weak demand overseas and a now-settled labor dispute at U.S. West Coast ports also was a drag. Factory production slipped 0.2% last month after declining 0.3% in January, the Fed said on Monday. The report joined dour retail sales, construction and housing starts data, which recently prompted economists to slash their first-quarter GDP growth estimates to as low as a 1.2% annualized pace. The economy grew at a 2.2% rate in the fourth quarter. Economists had forecast manufacturing output edging up 0.1% last month. (Reuters)

· Home Builder Sentiment Dips in March - NAHB. U.S. homebuilder sentiment declined for a third straight month in March but still showed more builders view market conditions as favorable, the National Association of Home Builders said on Monday. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index fell to 53 from 55the month before, the group said in a statement. Economists had predicted the index would edge up to 56. Readings above 50 mean more builders view market conditions as favorable than poor. The index has not been below 50 since June 2014. "The drop in builder confidence is largely attributable to supply chain issues, such as lot and labor shortages as well as tight underwriting standards," NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said in a statement. (Reuters)

Currencies · Dollar slumps as recent sharp gains could delay Fed hike. The dollar fell across the board on Monday as investors fretted that its recent rapid rise could prompt the Federal Reserve to be a little more cautious about raising interest rates this year. The greenback has risen about 24% against a major currency basket since May, and it could become a key issue at this week's Fed monetary policy meeting. The dollar index was down 0.7% at 99.597. The market is not expecting any change to the Fed's interest rate, which has held at 0.00-0.25% in the last six years. Instead, investors will focus on the language of the Fed's guidance about future policy moves. The euro gained 0.9% against the dollar to $1.0585 in afternoon trading. The dollar was little changed against the yen at 121.39 JPY. (Reuters)

Commodities

· Oil down 2%, U.S. crude hits six-year low on growing stocks, Iran talks. Oil prices fell 2% on Monday, with U.S. crude hitting six-year lows, on signs of higher output in the United States and Libya and a possible nuclear deal that could end sanctions for Iran, allowing more of its oil into the market. A market data provider estimated a fresh build of more than 3 million barrels at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for U.S. crude futures last week, traders said, adding to worries that stockpiles in the United States could hit record highs for a tenth straight week. Brent's expiring front-month contract LCOc1 closed down $1.23 and went off the board at $53.44 a barrel, hitting a six-week low of $52.50 earlier. U.S. crude futures CLc1 settled down 96 cents at $43.88. It had tumbled nearly $2 earlier to a March 2009 low of $42.85. Technical analysts see the next low at $37. (Reuters)

· Gold flirts with three-month low, eyes on Fed meeting. Gold fell on Monday, trading just above its lowest level in more than three months, due to stronger European shares and expectations that this week's Federal Reserve meeting could hint at the timing of any hike in U.S. interest rates. Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,153.26 an ounce by 12:29 p.m. EDT (1629 GMT), just above last week's three-month low at $1,147.10. The metal had fallen for nine consecutive sessions up to Thursday, its longest losing streak since 1973. Spot platinum continued its fall, reaching the lowest since July 2009 at $1,101 an ounce before paring losses to be down 0.5% $1,107.30. Silver was down 0.3% at $15.58 an ounce, while palladium fell 1.2% to $780.25 an ounce. (Reuters)