Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 1 Apr 2015

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Publish date: Wed, 01 Apr 2015, 09:48 AM

Global

· Global Investors Cut Cash To Catch Monetary Easing Wave. Global investors cut their holdings of cash in March to near two-year lows as they look to harness global financial markets kept buoyant by monetary stimulus around the world, a Reuters poll found. A monthly survey of fund managers and chief investment officers in the United States, Japan, Europe and Britain found the average recommended allocation to cash in global balanced portfolios was 5.3%, down from 5.8% in February. Cash is typically used as a buffer by investors against market volatility and allocations fall when they expect risk assets such as stocks to perform well. The average allocation to equities stood at 50.6% in March, close to a five-month peak of 50.7% reached in February, while bond exposure rose to 36.8%, up from 36.5% a month earlier. (Reuters)

· Taiwan Wants To Join China-Backed AIIB Investment Bank. Taiwan will submit an application to join the Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) on Tuesday, despite historical animosity and a lack of formal diplomatic relations between the island and China. In a statement released late on Monday, Taiwan presidential office spokesman Charles Chen said joining the AIIB will help Taiwan in its efforts at regional economic integration and raise the possibility of joining other multinational bodies. It was not immediately known whether Beijing would accept Taiwan's application to join the AIIB. (Reuters)

· Iceland Wants To Be Founding Member Of China-Backed AIIB Investment Bank. Iceland wants to be a founding member of the Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the island nation said on Tuesday, as dozens of countries from Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia join despite concerns from the United States. China has set a March 31 deadline to become a founding member of AIIB, seen as a significant setback to U.S. efforts to extend its influence in the Asia Pacific region and to balance China's growing financial clout and assertiveness. The AIIB is seen as a challenge to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank and has drawn a cool response from the United States, although many of Washington's allies, including Australia, South Korea, Britain, France, Germany and Italy, have announced they would join the bank. Japan is opting to stay out for now, with officials believing it can sign up later if its conditions are met, they said, but both Taiwan and Norway said they want to join. (Reuters)

Malaysia

· GST Helps In Combating Black Economy. The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from tomorrow is one of the ways to combat the existence of black market activities. Under the GST, only traders who have updated sales and purchase records are eligible to get various facilities such as claim input tax and apply for bank loans. If the traders have registered for the GST but still purchase from the black market, they are not only ineligible to claim any input tax but this also increase their business costs. Under GST transactions, all sales and purchases must be recorded and it is very important to keep invoices and receipts. In actual fact, GST assists the traders in improving their sale and purchase record system so as to be more efficient in line with good business practice. This will facilitate them in identifying the actual cost that has been invested and the actual profit made. (Bernama)

· Fuel Prices Remain Unchanged For April. The retail prices of RON95, RON97 and diesel for April 2015 remain unchanged, according to the Ministry of Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism (MDTCC) today. The price of RON95 is unchanged at RM1.95 per litre, RON97 at RM2.25 per litre and diesel at RM1.95 a litre as in March. These prices are effective 12.01 am, April 1, said the ministry's spokesperson when contacted by Bernama. However, according to the spokesperson, RON97 is not exempted from the Goods and Services Tax (GST) of 6.0%. (Bernama)

Asia

· Southeast Asian Borrowers Wince As Deflation Looms. Loans to businesses and households in Southeast Asia are growing at their slowest pace in five years, but the region's most indebted economies aren't becoming any less leveraged. Because of deflation, borrowers are at risk of shouldering heavier debt burdens. In Singapore, bank loans grew 3.26% in February from a year earlier, official data published on Tuesday shows, the slowest since November 2009. In Thailand, loan growth is also far below the rates seen after the 2008 global crisis when the authorities unleashed liquidity to revive the economy. But outstanding loans remain staggering. The Asian Development Bank says debt in Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia is now equal to at least twice the size of their gross domestic product, fueled by inflows of capital which funded bank loans and bond sales. (Reuters)

· China To Bring In Bank Deposit Insurance, Step Towards Liberalisation. China will introduce a scheme to insure bank deposits from May 1, the government said on Tuesday, ushering in a reform seen as vital for freeing up a highly-protected banking sector. The scheme, which has been talked about in China for around 20 years but gained urgency last year, comes at a time of increased financial stress, as a slowing economy fuels bad debt problems. Deposits of up to 500,000 yuan ($80,658) will be insured under the scheme, which is expected to help reduce financial risks and protect the rights and interests of savers, the State Council, or cabinet, said on the government's website. (Reuters)

· China's January-February Services Trade Deficit $29.4b. China posted a deficit of around $29.4b on trade in services in the first two months of 2015, data from the foreign exchange regulator showed on Tuesday. The deficit was led by a $29b gap in tourism as Chinese spent more overseas than foreigners visiting the country, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). No comparative figures were given. China posted a $119.6b surplus on trade in goods in the January-February period, giving a combined surplus on trade in goods and services of $90.1b, the data showed. (Reuters)

USA

· U.S. Consumer Confidence, House Prices Offer Hope For Economy. U.S. consumer confidence rebounded strongly in March amid optimism over the labor market while house prices increased in January, hopeful signs that a recent sharp slowdown in economic activity was probably a blip. The Conference Board said on Tuesday its index of consumer attitudes rose to 101.3 this month from 98.8 in February. That was well above economists' expectations for a reading of 96. A second report showed single-family home prices rose in January from a year earlier, in part boosted by a shortage of properties on the market. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 4.6% in January on a year-over-year basis after rising 4.4% in December. (Reuters)

· U.S. Small-Business Borrowing Slips In February, Up On Year. U.S. small businesses took out fewer loans last month but borrowing was up from a year ago as firms ramped up investments in their operations, according to data released on Tuesday. The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index fell to 119.2 last month from 122.4 in January. Still, the index was up 7% from February 2014, signaling a steadily improving sector. The index gauges borrowing by firms with $1 million or less in outstanding debt. An increase of 1% to 2% indicates businesses are borrowing to replace worn out assets, PayNet founder and President Bill Phelan said. (Reuters)

Europe · Eurozone Deflation Eases While Unemployment Falls. Deflation in the eurozone eased in March as the unemployment rate dipped slightly in February, figures show. The EU's statistics office figures found consumer prices fell by 0.1% in March from a year earlier, as against a 0.3% fall last month. The downward pressure on prices has come from the drop in energy costs, but which now appear to be levelling out. Despite the headline rate rising to -0.1%, core annual inflation - which excludes energy and food prices - continued to fall, dropping to 0.6% from 0.7% in February. (BBC)

· UK's Economic Growth For 2014 Revised Up. The UK's economy grew at a faster pace than initially estimated last year, revised official figures show. The economy grew by 0.6% in the final three months of 2014, up from the previous estimate of 0.5%, the Office for National Statistics said. The unexpected increase meant growth for the year was 2.8%, higher than the earlier estimate of 2.6%. The revised rate marks the highest pace of annual growth since 2006, when the economy grew by 3%. An expansion in both production and services as well as household spending helped to drive the increase, the official data suggested. But the biggest contribution to the revised figure was a strong performance of exports, the ONS said. (BBC)

· Greece Fails To Reach Initial Deal On Reforms With Lenders. Greece failed to reach an initial deal with the European Union and the IMF to unlock aid after the creditors dismissed a package of reforms from Athens as ideas rather than a concrete plan, officials said on Tuesday. The lack of a deal further raises pressure on Athens, which faces the prospect of running out of money in a few weeks unless it can convince lenders to dole out more financial help. (Reuters)

Currencies

· Ringgit Outflows Rises To RM32.1B From 2011-2014. The ringgit outflows increased by 146% to RM32.1b from 2011 to Dec 31, 2014, Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Chua Tee Yong said. He said based on the Bank Negara Malaysia's records, the amount of money sent abroad until Dec 31, 2010 amounted to RM13.4b. "But after the Money Services Business Act 2011 enforcement, it enables the government and Bank Negara to monitor the amount of money sent abroad that has increased by 146%," he told the Dewan Rakyat here today. He was replying to a supplementary question from Datuk Kamarul Baharin Abbas (PKR-Telok Kemang) on the Global Financial Integrity report alleging thatbs of ringgit had illegally flowed out of the country. Chua said the GFI report was questionable as it is not an internationally recognised organisation as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund had never categorised financial flows abroad as illicit money. (Bernama)

· Dollar Index Sees Strongest Quarter Since 2008. The U.S. dollar is on track for its strongest quarterly performance since 2008, gaining ground on the euro but losing some versus the Japanese yen. The ICE U.S. dollar index, a measure of the U.S. unit against a basket of six major rivals, traded at 98.435 in recent action, up from 97.980 in North American trade late Monday. The index has seen a quarterly gain of 9%, its strongest since a 9.6% rise in the third quarter of 2008, according to FactSet. The dollar traded at 120.08 yen. Earlier, the dollar had risen to a two-week high at ¥120.37. The dollar saw a 0.3% quarterly rise versus the Japanese currency. In other currency trade pairs, the euro was at $1.0738 down from $1.0832, falling more than 11% versus the dollar over the course of the quarter. Against the yen, the shared currency traded at ¥128.92, down from ¥129.86. (Market Watch)

Commodities

· Oil Deepens Loss On Iran Talks; Brent Ends March Down 12%. Oil fell for a third straight session on Tuesday, with Brent crude tumbling 12% for the month, as world powers entered into intense negotiations with Iran for a nuclear deal that could bring more of its oil to an oversupplied market. Brent oil settled down $1.18, or 2.1%, at $55.11 a barrel, after falling to $54.72 during the session. U.S. crude finished down $1.08, or 2.2% at $47.60, off its earlier low at $47.28. (Reuters)

· Gold Turns Lower On Firm Dollar, Set For 2nd Monthly Fall. Gold turned lower on Tuesday, pressured by the firm U.S. dollar and weak oil prices, and with expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year pushing bullion toward its second monthly decline. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,185.70 an ounce by 3:16 p.m. EDT (1916 GMT), while U.S. gold for April delivery settled down $1.70 at $1,184.80 an ounce. In other precious metals, spot palladium fell to a new 13-month low of $721.50 on Tuesday, before paring losses to be down 1.2% at $725.98 an ounce. Spot silver fell 0.4% to $16.66 an ounce, while platinum gained 2% to $1,115.55 an ounce. (Reuters)

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