Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 3 Apr 2015

kiasutrader
Publish date: Fri, 03 Apr 2015, 09:39 AM

 Malaysia

· Malaysia Plans to Issue Dollar Sukuk to Repay 1MDB Debt. Malaysia's government will begin meeting investors on Monday to discuss a potential dollar-denominated sovereign sukuk, as it looks to repay some of the debt raised by its struggling state fund 1MDB. The government has appointed CIMB, HSBC and Standard Chartered to arrange meetings in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, Singapore on Tuesday, Hong Kong on Wednesday, Abu Dhabi and Dubai on Thursday, London on Friday and New York the following Monday, a document from lead arrangers showed. No details on the size and tenor of the issue were provided, but sources with knowledge of the deal previously told Reuters that it would be up to $2 billion with a maturity of more than five years. The Malaysian government would use the proceeds for sharia-compliant purposes including the redemption of 1MDB's $1.25 billion sukuk that matures in June, the document showed. (Reuters)

Asia

· Tax Hike Still Keeping Japan Households from Spending. Nearly 60% of Japanese households cut spending after last year's sales tax hike and most continue to withhold consumption, a Bank of Japan survey showed, highlighting the challenges of reviving an economy struggling to edge out of recession. The survey also showed that while households saw economic conditions improve and income rise, they remained hesitant of boosting spending, underscoring the tricky balance the BOJ faces in trying to accelerate inflation without cooling consumption. Japan slipped into recession after the government raised the sales tax to 8% from 5% in April last year, forcing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to delay by 18 months a second tax hike initially scheduled in October 2015. While the economy emerged from recession thanks to a rebound in exports and factory output, private consumption has been weak due to the higher levy and the rising cost of living as the weak yen drove up import costs. (Reuters)

· Indonesian Consumers Less Optimistic in March. Indonesian consumers were less optimistic in March due to expectations of a weakening economic outlook, a Bank Indonesia survey showed on Thursday. The consumer confidence index was 116.9 in March on a yearly basis, slightly lower from 120.2 in February. A reading above 100 indicates that consumers are optimistic. The survey showed that consumers held back their purchase of durable goods amid a decrease in employment availability. Consumers expected that the economic outlook in the next six months will be weaker, especially on business activity, job availability and on income. The survey showed that consumers expected business activities to worsen in the next six months due to price pressures and limitations on improvement in infrastructure. (Reuters)

· Thai Consumer Confidence Hits 9-Month Low in March. Consumer confidence in Thailand fell for the third straight month in March, a university survey showed on Thursday, as low commodity prices and worries over the stumbling economy crimped domestic demand. The consumer confidence index of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce fell to 77.7 in March from 79.1 in February. The March reading is the lowest since June 2014, when confidence was rising as Thais hoped for a pick-up in the economy after an army coup the month before that ended a long period of destabilising political unrest. Low commodity prices have hurt exports, a key economic driver, and cut farmers' income and purchasing power. (Reuters)

USA

· U.S. Jobless Data Boosts Labor Market Picture; Trade Deficit Narrows. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market continues to expand at a solid clip even as economic growth has stalled. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week ended March 28, the lowest level since January, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists had forecast claims at 285,000. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 14,750 to 285,500. In a separate report, the Commerce Department said new orders for manufactured goods increased 0.2%, ending six straight months of declines. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.8%, the biggest gain in eight months. Downbeat first-quarter growth estimates got a lift from a second report from the Commerce Department showing the trade deficit narrowed 16.9% to $35.4 billion in February, the smallest since October 2009. When adjusted for inflation, the deficit narrowed to $50.8 billion in February from $54.6 billion the prior month. (Reuters)

Europe

· German Chambers of Commerce Fear Weak Euro. Germany's DIHK Chambers of Commerce said on Thursday that while the weak euro would initially boost Europe's largest economy by enabling exporters to offer their goods abroad for less, firms were increasingly concerned about the exchange rate. "The strong exchange rate fluctuations in recent months are making it difficult to develop long-term plans and increasing the cost of the hedging transactions they need to do," the DIHK said. Most firms in Germany have to import goods and these have become noticeably more expensive due to the weak euro, the DIHK said. A DIHK survey published in February found that almost a fifth of German companies see the weak euro as a business risk, compared with 11% of firms in a poll published in October, the DIHK said. (Reuters)

 Currencies

· Dollar Down for Second Day Ahead of U.S. Payrolls. The dollar fell for a second straight session on Thursday, as investors continued to pare back hefty positions ahead of an all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls report that could disappoint those with a bullish view on the greenback. In late trading, the dollar index was down 0.7% at 97.485, with the greenback down 0.8% versus the Swiss franc at 0.9593. Against the yen, the dollar was flat at 119.705. The euro rallied more than 1% against the dollar, trading at $1.0886. Even with the euro's present rally, the rate differential between the United States and Europe is expected to grow as the European Central Bank maintains its money-printing quantitative easing policies. (Reuters)

Commodities

· Oil Falls Nearly 4% after Tentative Nuclear Deal for Iran. Brent oil fell nearly 4% on Thursday after a preliminary pact between Iran and global powers on Tehran's nuclear program, even as officials set further talks in June and analysts questioned when the OPEC member will be allowed to export more crude. Traders had been fixated on the talks held in Lausanne, Switzerland for over a week as Iran tried to agree with six world powers on concessions to its nuclear program to remove U.S.-led sanctions that have halved its oil exports. The sanctions against Iran will come off under a "future comprehensive deal" to be agreed by June 30, after it complies with nuclear-related provisions, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told a news conference. North Sea Brent crude futures, the more widely-used global benchmark for oil, settled down $2.15, or 3.8%, at $54.95 a barrel, almost $1 above the session low. U.S. crude futures settled down 95 cents, or 2%, at $49.14 a barrel, after falling nearly $2 earlier. (Reuters)

· Gold Falls Ahead of U.S. Payrolls Data despite Weak Dollar. Gold fell on Thursday as the impact of a weaker dollar was offset by positive U.S. economic data that offered hope the labor market continues to expand even as growth has stalled, ahead of Friday's important U.S. nonfarm jobs report. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,200.10 an ounce by 1901 GMT. U.S. gold for June delivery slipped $7.30 an ounce to settle at $1,200.90. Spot silver fell 1.2% to $16.68 an ounce, while platinum lost 0.7% to $1,150.50 an ounce and palladium rose 0.1% to $743 an ounce. (Reuters)

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